The most known precursor to the Oscars unveiled their nominations today. Per usual, there were surprises as some films hopes potentially dim for the big prize with others rising.
As far as my predictions, I went 51/70 overall while going 5/5 in four of the fourteen races. Today I will also make my first predictions for winners with final picks coming a couple of days before the ceremony in January.
Let’s break them all down with a little analysis, shall we?
Best Motion Picture – Drama
Todd’s Performance: 4/5
The Nominees: Black Panther, BlacKkKlansman, Bohemian Rhapsody, If Beale Street Could Talk, A Star Is Born
A bit surprisingly, Bohemian Rhapsody managed to score a nod over my prediction of First Man. I would say that at this juncture, Man is truly a question mark as to whether it garners an Oscar slot for Picture, while its inclusion in tech races still seems assured. Additionally, I think Black Panther helped its cause today to be the first comic book flick to get a Best Picture nomination from the Academy.
Predicted Winner: A Star Is Born
Best Motion Picture – Musical/Comedy
Todd’s Performance: 5/5
The Nominees: Crazy Rich Asians, The Favourite, Green Book, Mary Poppins Returns, Vice
No surprises here! Picking a winner is far more tough as I believe The Favourite, Green Book, and Vice all have legitimate shots. Both Peter Farrelly (Green Book) and Adam McKay (Vice) received Directing nods while Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite) did not. That could give those two pictures a slight edge and I’ll put it as a coin toss at the moment.
Predicted Winner: Green Book
Best Director
Todd’s Performance: 3/5
The Nominees: Alfonso Cuaron (Roma), Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born), Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman), Adam McKay (Vice), Peter Farrelly (Green Book)
The aforementioned McKay and Farrelly were the ones I didn’t predict. I instead had Lanthimos and Barry Jenkins (If Beale Street Could Talk). This would seem to be between Cuaron and Cooper and I’ll give the former a tiny edge.
Predicted Winner: Cuaron
Best Actor (Drama)
Todd’s Performance: 3/5
The Nominees: Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born), Willem Dafoe (At Eternity’s Gate), Lucas Hedges (Boy Erased), Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody), John David Washington (BlacKkKlansman)
Hedges and Washington (a rather genuine surprise) got in over Ryan Gosling (First Man) and Ethan Hawke (First Reformed). Mr. Hawke had been on a roll with critics precursors and this is the first interruption of that. Gosling’s snub continues the troubling trend for First Man. With Christian Bale and Viggo Mortensen in the Musical/Comedy race, this appears to be a clear victory for Cooper.
Predicted Winner: Cooper
Best Actress (Drama)
Todd’s Performance: 3/5
The Nominees: Glenn Close (The Wife), Lady Gaga (A Star Is Born), Nicole Kidman (Destroyer), Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?), Rosamund Pike (A Private War)
Both Kidman and Pike helped their cases for Oscar attention here while my predicted nominees of Viola Davis (Widows) and Yalitza Aparicio (Roma) did not. This category appears to be Close vs. Gaga (as it may also be for the Academy). This prediction could and likely will fluctuate.
Predicted Winner: Close
Best Actor (Musical/Comedy)
Todd’s Performance: 4/5
The Nominees: Christian Bale (Vice), Lin-Manuel Miranda (Mary Poppins Returns), Viggo Mortensen (Green Book), Robert Redford (The Old Man & The Gun), John C. Reilly (Stan & Ollie)
No big surprise with Reilly getting in over Nick Robinson (Love, Simon), which was a bit of a wild card pick. Bale and Mortensen are the two winner possibilities and I’m going with the former right now.
Predicted Winner: Bale
Best Actress (Musical/Comedy)
Todd’s Performance: 5/5
The Nominees: Emily Blunt (Mary Poppins Returns), Olivia Colman (The Favourite), Elsie Fisher (Eighth Grade), Charlize Theron (Tully), Constance Wu (Crazy Rich Asians)
I’m giving Colman the win, but this could easily be changed to Blunt at some point.
Predicted Winner: Colman
Best Supporting Actor
Todd’s Performance: 4/5
The Nominees: Mahershala Ali (Green Book), Timothee Chalamet (Beautiful Boy), Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman), Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?), Sam Rockwell (Vice)
No Sam Elliot for A Star Is Born was unexpected, with Rockwell continuing the Vice love. Ali should be considered a soft front-runner, but a win for Driver or Grant seems feasible. I’m going for an upset pick, but could revert back to Ali.
Predicted Winner: Grant
Best Supporting Actress
Todd’s Performance: 5/5
The Nominees: Amy Adams (Vice), Claire Foy (First Man), Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk), Emma Stone (The Favourite), Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)
Adams is probably going to win… for Sharp Objects in the television race for which she’s also nominated. Stone and Weisz could cancel one another out and Foy represents the lone high-profile nod for First Man. That leaves Ms. King and she seems to be a front-runner.
Predicted Winner: King
Best Screenplay
Todd’s Performance: 4/5
The Nominees: The Favourite, Green Book, If Beale Street Could Talk, Roma, Vice
The exclusion of A Star Is Born surprised me with Green Book honored instead. This is a tough one, but I’ll say this ends up being the sole win for The Favourite. Roma and Vice are certainly possible.
Predicted Winner: The Favourite
Best Foreign Language Film
Todd’s Performance: 4/5
The Nominees: Capernaum, Girl, Never Look Away, Roma, Shoplifters
Capernaum in, Cold War out. Roma will win. Enough said.
Predicted Winner: Roma
Best Animated Feature Film
Todd’s Performance: 5/5
The Nominees: Incredibles 2, Isle of Dogs, Mirai, Ralph Breaks the Interent, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
This could certainly be the Academy five. The Hollywood Foreign Press loves their Pixar. Dogs and Spider-Man could threaten, but the safe pick is Incredibles 2.
Predicted Winner: Incredibles 2
Best Original Score
Todd’s Performance: 2/5
The Nominees: A Quiet Place, Isle of Dogs, Black Panther, First Man, Mary Poppins Returns
Ouch. Didn’t fare well here as I only predicted First Man and Poppins. A shocking omission was Beale Street, which some see as the Academy favorite in this race. Considering its lackluster reception for Man, it could dangerous to pick it over Poppins, but here goes.
Predicted Winner: First Man
Best Original Song
Todd’s Performance: 3/5
The Nominees: “All the Stars” (Black Panther), “Girl in the Movies” (Dumplin’), “Requiem for a Private War” (A Private War), “Revelation” (Boy Erased), “The Shallow” (A Star Is Born)
I had two Poppins tracks in and not “Revelation” or “Requiem”. This is going Gaga.
Predicted Winner: “The Shallow” (A Star Is Born).
And there you have it folks! I’ll have updated Oscar predictions up later today…