Box Office Predictions: June 26-28

It’s been a record breaking June 2015 so far and this upcoming weekend looks to keep up the torrid box office pace as three films look to each earn $50M or more. There are two newcomers out: comedy sequel Ted 2 and military dog family drama Max. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/06/20/ted-2-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/06/20/max-box-office-prediction/

The real question is what comes out on top this weekend? It could be Ted 2, which I have making slightly less than its 2012 predecessor out of the gate (though it could certainly earn more). It could be Jurassic World for the third weekend in a row as it looks to extend its record breaking box office pace. Or it could be Pixar’s Inside Out, which I anticipate having a smaller second weekend decline than Jurassic‘s third weekend drop off. As you’ll see below, I expect it to be a photo finish among all three.

Max should place a distant fourth with Spy rounding out the top five.

And with that, my predictions the weekend’s top five:

1. Inside Out

Predicted Gross: $53.4 million (representing a drop of 40%)

2. Jurassic World

Predicted Gross: $51.1 million (representing a drop of 52%)

3. Ted 2

Predicted Gross: $50.8 million

4. Max

Predicted Gross: $13.9 million

5. Spy

Predicted Gross: $7.6 million (representing a drop of 32%)

Box Office Results (June 19-21)

Several records once again fell by the wayside this weekend as Jurassic World remained #1 with $106.5 million to bring its total to $402M in just ten days. The dino reboot soared past my $88.3M projection and accomplished the largest second weekend in domestic history. World is well on its way to becoming the biggest grosser of summer 2015.

It may have come in second, but Pixar has much to celebrate with its amazing $90.4 million debut for Inside Out, well above my $71.4M prediction. The critically acclaimed animated feature had the highest opening for a story based on original material, outpacing Avatar‘s $77M previous record breaker. Additionally it scored the second largest debut for a Pixar property after only 2010’s Toy Story 3. It also set the record for biggest debut not to come in at #1 (previously held by the $68M earned by 2004’s The Day After Tomorrow). The only downside is it’s the first Pixar feature not to open on top, but don’t look for Disney to cry into their piles of money too much. Look for Inside Out to continue its impressive run in subsequent weekends.

Holdovers held up better than my estimates as Spy was third with $11.2 million (above my $9.1M estimate). San Andreas took fourth with $8.7 million (ahead of my $5.2M prediction). Their respective totals stand at $75M and $132M.

The only other newcomer, Dope, had a middling premiere with $6.1 million, under my $7.7M prediction.

And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…

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