Box Office Predictions: June 9-11

Tom Cruise will attempt to take on the bonanza that is Wonder Woman this weekend and it will probably come up short. Universal monster pic The Mummy opens wide along with criticality lauded horror flick It Comes at Night and military themed biopic Megan Leavey. You can read my detailed prediction posts on the newbies here:

Mr. Cruise looks headed for a second place showing as I foresee Wonder Woman falling just a bit over 50%. There is a chance that Mummy over performs and gets around $50 million, but I’m not seeing it right now.

Captain Underpants should be in third while the four spot could be a battle between Pirates of the Caribbean in its third frame and It Comes at Night. The latter also has a chance to exceed my estimate, but I’ve got under double digits.

As for Megan Leavey, I’m anticipating a muted premiere at $3.3 million, which would put it in 8th place.

And with that, my top 5 estimates for the weekend:

1. Wonder Woman

Predicted Gross: $49.5 million (representing a drop of 52%)

2. The Mummy

Predicted Gross: $34.7 million

3. Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie

Predicted Gross: $14.1 million (representing a drop of 41%)

4. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales

Predicted Gross: $10.2 million (representing a drop of 54%)

5. It Comes at Night

Predicted Gross: $9.5 million

Box Office Results (June 2–4)

DC had a critical hit and now they have a huge box office smash as Wonder Woman lassoed $103.2 million, topping my $98.3M projection. It set the all-time opening record for a female directed motion picture. The road ahead looks bright with very positive word of mouth.

Captain Underpants was second and came in on the lower end of expectations with $23.8 million, under my $27.4M estimate. The Dreamworks animated tale will hope for smallish drops in the weekends ahead, but there’s competition coming with Cars 3 and Despicable Me 3 this month.

Pirates of the Caribbean dropped to third with $22 million, in line with my $21.6M prediction for a two-week total of $115M.

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 was fourth with $9.8 million (I said $10M) for $355M overall.

Baywatch held up a bit better than I figured in weekend #2, placing fifth with $8.7 million compared to my $7.5M forecast. It’s earned $41M.

That does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: June 2-4

After a rather disappointing Memorial Day weekend at the box office (more on that below), June rolls in with two major releases: Wonder Woman, the latest in the DC Cinematic Universe and Dreamworks animated feature Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/05/25/wonder-woman-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/05/25/captain-underpants-the-first-epic-movie-box-office-prediction/

There’s little question that Wonder Woman will open at #1, but there’s wide variations on how much it will gross out of the gate. The pic has been garnering glowing reviews and that should help (its Rotten Tomatoes score is currently 96%). I currently have it in the low to mid 90s with the thought that the number could be trending up.

A potential battle may emerge for the runner-up position between Underpants and the second weekend of Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales. However, my estimate puts the non-Sparrow Captain just ahead at #2, as I believe Pirates will suffer a hefty decline.

Holdovers Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 and Baywatch (which should tumble pretty far after a bad debut) should round out the top five. And with that, my top 5 estimates for the weekend:

1. Wonder Woman

Predicted Gross: $98.3 million

2. Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie

Predicted Gross: $27.4 million

3. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales

Predicted Gross: $21.6 million (representing a drop of 61%)

4. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2

Predicted Gross: $10 million (representing a drop of 50%)

5. Baywatch

Predicted Gross: $7.5 million (representing a drop of 59%)

Box Office Results (May 26-29)

Disney’s Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales easily topped the four-day holiday weekend. However, it did so with the lowest debut of any of the five films since the original in 2003. The Johnny Depp pic grossed $78.4 million over the long frame, right in line with my $78.6M estimate. It is highly likely this will turn out to be the lowest domestic grosser of the franchise thus far.

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 was second with $27.1 million (I was a touch lower at $25.3M) to bring its total to $340M.

Baywatch, with wretched reviews and so-so word of mouth, performed a box office belly flop with $27.7 million from its Thursday to Monday roll out, under my projection of $39.4M. That put in in third for Friday to Monday portion of the weekend.

News was bad for Alien: Covenant as well. In its sophomore frame, it tumbled to $13.3 million for fourth (well under my $19.9M forecast).

Everything, Everything rounded out the top five with $7.6 million (I said $6.8M) for a two week tally of $23M.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: May 26-29

Memorial Day Weekend is upon us and there’s two potential heavy hitters making their way to the multiplex: Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales, the fifth entry in the Disney franchise and Baywatch, the action comedy reboot of the 90s syndicated TV show. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/05/18/pirates-of-the-caribbean-dead-men-tell-no-tales-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/05/18/baywatch-box-office-prediction/

Pirates should easily place first, though my prediction puts it under the debuts of the three previous series entries. Baywatch should place second barring a majorly disappointing opening.

I’m estimating that current #1 Alien: Covenant will slip to fourth with Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 displaying a better hold in third. YA romance Everything, Everything should round out the top five.

And with that, here’s my holiday weekend Friday to Monday projections!

1. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales

Predicted Gross: $78.6 million

2. Baywatch

Predicted Gross: $32.8 million ($39.4 million projected Thursday to Monday debut)

3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2

Predicted Gross: $25.3 million (representing a drop of 24%)

4. Alien: Covenant

Predicted Gross: $19.9 million (representing a drop of 45%)

5. Everything, Everything

Predicted Gross: $6.8 million (representing a drop of 42%)

Box Office Results (May 19-21)

In a tight battle for #1, Alien: Covenant just managed to eek out a victory with $36.1 million. Despite mostly solid reviews, the sixth feature in the nearly 40 year-old franchise came in a bit on the lower end of expectations and under my $44.6M prediction.

Following close behind was Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 in its third frame. The Marvel hit dropped to second with $34.6 million (a tad above my $32.2M projection) for a grand total of $301 million.

Everything, Everything posted a decent third place showing with $11.7 million, right in line with my $12.3M estimate.

Snatched was fourth in its ho-hum run with $7.8 million (I said $9M) for a tally of just $33 million.

King Arthur: Legend of the Sword is still a bomb, but it was in the top 5 in its sophomore weekend and I didn’t predict it would be there. It grossed $7.1 million to bring its meager gross to $27 million.

I had Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul debuting in the five spot, but it was sixth with $7.1 million (just below my $8.1M estimate). This is a franchise worst debut for the series.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: May 19-21

Summer 2017 keeps rolling along as three new titles populate the marketplace this weekend. They are Ridley Scott’s Alien: Covenant (the sixth film in the nearly 40 year-old franchise), Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul (the fourth film in the seven year-old franchise), and YA romance Everything, Everything. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/05/10/alien-covenant-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/05/11/diary-of-a-wimpy-kid-the-long-haul-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/05/12/everything-everything-box-office-prediction/

As I see it, Covenant should manage a mid 40s debut. That’s under what its direct predecessor Prometheus accomplished five years ago, but it should be good enough to nab the #1 spot from Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2. The Marvel hit should end its two-week reign atop the charts.

I’m predicting a third place showing for Everything, Everything with Snatched nabbing fourth in its sophomore frame and Wimpy Kid rounding out the top five. As for King Arthur: Legend of the Sword, it should plummet out of the top five in its second weekend after a terrible debut (more on that below).

And with that, my top 5 predictions for the weekend:

1. Alien: Covenant

Predicted Gross: $44.6 million

2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2

Predicted Gross: $32.2 million (representing a drop of 50%)

3. Everything, Everything

Predicted Gross: $12.3 million

4. Snatched

Predicted Gross: $9 million (representing a drop of 54%)

5. Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul

Predicted Gross: $8.1 million

Box Office Results (May 12-14)

As expected, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 easily dominated the box office in weekend #2 with $65.2 million, right in line with my $64.3M projection. The sequel has grossed $248 million thus far.

The Amy Schumer/Goldie Hawn comedy did just OK in second place with $19.5 million, a bit shy of my $21.1M estimate. Not a bad opening for a $42 million budget, but this is well below the $30M achieved by Schumer’s Trainwreck two summers ago.

It took until the second weekend of summer to have a flop of epic proportions and that honor belongs to King Arthur: Legend of the Sword. The Guy Ritchie pic took in an embarrassing $15.3 million, well under my $24.4M prediction. Considering its reported $175 million budget, Warner Bros looks to lose a lot of cash on this ill-advised investment.

Holdovers populated spots 4-6. The Fate of the Furious was fourth with $5.4 million (I said $5.7M) for a $215M total. I incorrectly had The Boss Baby in fifth, but it was sixth with $4.4 million (I said $4.9M) for an overall tally of $162M. Instead, Beauty and the Beast rounded out the top five with $4.8 million to bring its massive cume to $494M. It is currently the 8th highest domestic earner of all time.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: May 12-14

We have now entered the second weekend of summer 2017 at the box office and there’s two high-profile releases opening wide. They are: Guy Ritchie directed retelling of King Arthur: Legend of the Sword and Amy Schumer/Goldie Hawn comedy Snatched.

You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on both here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/05/03/king-arthur-legend-of-the-sword-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/05/03/snatched-box-office-prediction/

One things seems certain and it’s that neither of these newcomers will come close to dislodging Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 from a sophomore weekend on top (more on its opening below).

The real competition will indeed be for the runner-up spot. I expect a close race for the #2 spot, with Arthur managing to edge out Snatched.

The rest of the top five should be filled by spring holdovers The Fate of the Furious and The Boss Baby.

And with that, my top 5 predictions for the weekend:

1. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2

Predicted Gross: $64.3 million (representing a drop of 56%)

2. King Arthur: Legend of the Sword

Predicted Gross: $24.4 million

3. Snatched

Predicted Gross: $21.1 million

4. The Fate of the Furious

Predicted Gross: $5.7 million (representing a drop of 34%)

5. The Boss Baby

Predicted Gross: $4.9 million (representing a drop of 18%)

Box Office Results (May 5-7)

The summer season got off to a solid start as Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 debuted to $146.5 million. That’s good for the 17th largest domestic opening of all time. The Marvel/Disney sequel met, but did not exceed expectations, including my own. I had it pegged higher at $166.4M. Even though my estimate was nearly $20 million higher, this premiere still ensures more of Star-Lord and a growing Groot in the future.

Holdovers populated the rest of the top five as nothing else dared open wide against the Guardians. In second was The Fate of the Furious with $8.5 million (I said $7.7M) for an overall gross of $207M.

The Boss Baby was third with $5.9 million (a bit above my $4.8M prediction) for a $156M total.

How to Be a Latin Lover, despite a significant screen expansion, dropped pretty hard to fourth with $5.1 million (below my $6.9M forecast) for a $20M total.

Beauty and the Beast rounded out the top five with $5 million (I said $4.7M) to bring its haul to $487M.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: May 5-7

There’s only one new release hitting theaters as May opens, but it’s a massive one! Yes, summer 2017 kicks off this weekend as Disney/Marvel’s Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 debuts. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/04/25/guardians-of-the-galaxy-vol-2-box-office-prediction/

As you can see, I’m predicting the sequel to 2014’s huge blockbuster will post the 9th highest domestic opening of all time. That means it would be the second largest premiere this year behind March’s Beauty and the Beast.

I am expecting Guardians to gross more than the rest of the top ten combined and then some. All holdovers will likely lose hefty percentages of their audience as attention turns to Star Lord and Baby Groot. Much more on what those pictures did this past weekend below…

With that, my top 5 projections for our first weekend of movie summer!

1. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2

Predicted Gross: $166.4 million

2. The Fate of the Furious

Predicted Gross: $7.7 million (representing a drop of 61%)

3. How to Be a Latin Lover

Predicted Gross: $6.9 million (representing a drop of 44%)

4. The Boss Baby

Predicted Gross: $4.8 million (representing a drop of 49%)

5. Beauty and the Beast

Predicted Gross: $4.7 million (representing a drop of 31%)

Box Office Results (April 28-30)

There was a bit more excitement than expected in this last weekend of April as some newcomers posted results that exceeded expectations… and one that did not.

As expected, The Fate of the Furious was #1 for the third weekend with $19.9 million, on pace with my $20.2M prediction. It’s made $193M thus far.

Surprise #1 was the terrific opening of How to Be a Latin Lover at $12.2 million, nearly doubling my meager $6.3M projection. Surprise #3 was the $10.3 million debut for Indian action epic Buuhabali 2: The Conclusion. How much of a shocker was that for me? Well, I never even ended up doing a prediction post for it!

The Boss Baby was fourth with $9.3 million, in range with my $8.6M forecast for a $148M total.

Surprise #3 belongs to The Circle, the techno thriller with a cast including Emma Watson, Tom Hanks, and John Boyega. The pic came in at the lowest end of expectations with just $9 million for fifth (well below my $16.3M estimate). With a deadly Cinemascore D+ Cinemascore grade, look for The Circle to close fast at multiplexes.

Beauty and the Beast was sixth with $6.8 million (I said $6.5M) to bring its gross to $480M. It now stands as the ninth highest grossing picture ever.

Finally, Sleight‘s grosses were just that as it opened in 13th with $1.7 million (I was a little higher at $2.4M).

And that does it for now, folks! Welcome to Summer 2017 at the movies…

Box Office Predictions: April 28-30

It’s the final weekend before the summer onslaught of high-profile wannabe blockbuster hits screens. Our final April weekend brings the Emma Watson/Tom Hanks thriller The Circle and rom com How to Be a Latin Lover. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/04/19/the-circle-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/04/21/how-to-be-a-latin-lover-box-office-prediction/

As I see it, The Circle should be in for a second place showing behind the third weekend of The Fate of the Furious, which should manage to stay on top before Marvel’s Guardians slays all competitors when May hits.

As for Latin Lover, it certainly has the chance to over perform and could potentially nab the #3 spot. However, my estimate has it rounding out the top five with holdovers The Boss Baby and Beauty and the Beast above it.

There is another debut this weekend and that’s Sleight, the BlumHouse Tilt horror pic. I don’t have a theater count for it yet. Right now, I’ll predict $2.4 million though I could choose to revise once more information is available.

And with that, my top 5 predictions for the weekend:

1. The Fate of the Furious

Predicted Gross: $20.2 million (representing a drop of 47%)

2. The Circle

Predicted Gross: $16.3 million

3. The Boss Baby

Predicted Gross: $8.6 million (representing a drop of 32%)

4. Beauty and the Beast

Predicted Gross: $6.5 million (representing a drop of 35%)

5. How to Be a Latin Lover

Predicted Gross: $6.3 million

Box Office Results (April 21-23)

In a weekend where six new titles rolled out wide (or semi-wide), there some surprises here and there. One item that wasn’t surprising: The Fate of the Furious easily remained #1 with $38.4 million, a bit under my $43.2M projection. The eighth pic in the franchise has taken in $163M in ten days.

The Boss Baby held in second with $12.7 million (above my $9.2M estimate) for $136M overall. Beauty and the Beast remained third with $9.6 million (above my $7.8M forecast) to bring its total to $470M. That puts it at #10 for all-time domestic earners and climbing.

Other holdovers held up better than my predictions. Going in Style was fourth with $4.9 million (I said $3.5M). It’s made $31M. Smurfs: The Lost Village was fifth at $4.8 million (I said $3.6M) and it’s earned $33M.

Yes, that means none of the newcomers cracked the top five. Disney’s nature doc Born in China was sixth with $4.7 million, in line with my $5.2M estimate. In seventh was the Katherine Heigl/Rosario Dawson thriller Unforgettable. It also made $4.7 million and that’s way below my generous $12.9M projection. I mistakenly felt a decent female audience might turn out for it. Not so.

Then there’s Gifted. I had it outside the top ten, but it expanded its theater count and posted $4.5 million for eighth. Its total is $10M.

The Promise opened in ninth with $4 million (I said $3.2M). The Christian Bale/Oscar Isaac Armenian genocide drama looks to be a big money loser for its studio.

The Lost City of Z was 10th as it expanded its theater count with $2.1 million (below my $3.7M prediction). Found footage horror flick Phoenix Forgotten opened dismally in 11th with $1.8 million, not matching my take of $3.4M.

Finally, Brie Larson action comedy Free Fire was DOA in 17th place with just $994k (I said $2.3M).

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: April 21-23

It is one busy post Easter weekend at the box office as six films roll out in wide or semi release. They are: romantic thriller Unforgettable with Katherine Heigl and Rosario Dawson, DisneyNature production Born in China, Armenian Genocide drama The Promise with Christian Bale and Oscar Isaac, found footage horror pic Phoenix Forgotten, British action-comedy Free Fire, and period piece adventure The Lost City of Z with Charlie Hunnam and Robert Pattinson. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

Unforgettable Box Office Prediction

Born in China Box Office Prediction

Phoenix Forgotten Box Office Prediction

The Promise Box Office Prediction

Free Fire Box Office Prediction

The Lost City of Z Box Office Prediction

Before we get to the newbies, one thing seems for certain: The Fate of the Furious will easily repeat at #1 after its near $100M opening over Easter (more on that below). I foresee a drop in the mid 50s for it.

I see Unforgettable having little trouble placing highest among the debuts for a decent second place showing. Then it’s family holdovers The Boss Baby and Beauty and the Beast in third and fourth with Born in China rounding out the top five.

And here’s where it gets really interesting! I’m not expecting much out of Phoenix Forgotten or The Promise and have them opening in range with where Smurfs: The Lost Village and Going in Style should be at in their third weekends. I also believe The Lost City of Z will do fairly well on only 500 screens and actually have it in sixth. Bottom line: for the numbers 6-10, I have them separated by only half a million bucks.

Notice I didn’t mention Free Fire. That’s because I actually have it outside the top ten at $2.3M (which would probably put it 11th). That said, I’ve yet to screen a theater count for it and that could change the dynamic.

So… lots to chew on this weekend and here’s a projected top ten:

1. The Fate of the Furious

Predicted Gross: $43.2 million (representing a drop of 56%)

2. Unforgettable

Predicted Gross: $12.9 million

3. The Boss Baby

Predicted Gross: $9.2 million (representing a drop of 43%)

4. Beauty and the Beast

Predicted Gross: $7.8 million (representing a drop of 43%)

5. Born in China

Predicted Gross: $5.2 million

6. The Lost City of Z

Predicted Gross: $3.7 million

7. Smurfs: The Lost Village

Predicted Gross: $3.6 million (representing a drop of 47%)

8. Going in Style

Predicted Gross: $3.5 million (representing a drop of 45%)

9. Phoenix Forgotten

Predicted Gross: $3.4 million

10. The Promise

Predicted Gross: $3.2 million

Box Office Results (April 14-16)

The Fate of the Furious did manage to score the second highest April opening ever and the second highest debut of the franchise, though it did come in quite a bit under my expectations. Fate made $98.7 million, just topping the $97.3M achieved by Fast & Furious 6 (and well under the series pinnacle of $147.1M that Furious 7 did). While well below my $122.7 million projection, it’s still a solid opening that should leave the Fast brand in good order.

The Boss Baby dropped to second with $16 million (I said $15M) for a $116M tally with Beauty and the Beast in third at $13.7 million (I said $14.6M) for a $454M overall haul.

Smurfs: The Lost Village continued its ho-hum run in fourth with $6.7 million (I said $7.8M) in its sophomore frame for just a $24M total. Going in Style, also in weekend #2, rounded out the top five with $6.2 million (I went with $7.2M) for $23M overall.

Finally, Gifted expanded in theater count and was sixth with $3 million, under my $4.6M forecast.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: April 14-16

It’s Easter Weekend and it’s sure to be dominated by the release of The Fate of the Furious, the eighth picture in the blockbuster franchise. We also have the wide release of Gifted, a drama with Chris Evans and Octavia Spencer that expands to 1000 screens on Friday. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on both here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/04/05/the-fate-of-the-furious-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/04/09/gifted-box-office-prediction/

My estimate for Fate would give it the second largest debut of the franchise and second biggest April bow of all time… both behind 2015’s Furious 7.

The real battle could be for the #2 slot between hit holdovers The Boss Baby and Beauty and the Beast. I anticipate a razor thin margin between those titles.

Last weekend’s new releases Smurfs: The Lost Village (which suffered a lackluster opening) and Going in Style should round out the top five, in what could be a potentially close race itself.

As for Gifted, it had a decent roll out in limited release this past weekend and my forecast for it would put it in sixth place.

Holdovers should dominate the remainder of the top 5.

And with that, my top 6 predictions for the holiday frame:

1. The Fate of the Furious

Predicted Gross: $122.7 million

2. The Boss Baby

Predicted Gross: $15 million (representing a drop of 43%)

3. Beauty and the Beast

Predicted Gross: $14.6 million (representing a drop of 38%)

4. Smurfs: The Lost Village

Predicted Gross: $7.8 million (representing a drop of 41%)

5. Going in Style

Predicted Gross: $7.2 million (representing a drop of 40%)

6. Gifted

Predicted Gross: $4.6 million

Box Office Results (April 7-9)

The Boss Baby was tops for the second weekend in a row with $26.3 million. This is right on target with my $26.1M prognosis and the Dreamworks animated tale has made $89 million at press time.

Beauty and the Beast was second with $23.6 million, in line with my $24M estimate. The Disney smash stands at $430 million currently with $500M in its sights.

Smurfs: The Lost Village couldn’t break through with family audiences in its third place debut. The third flick in the franchise (and the first that’s totally animated) grossed just $13.2 million (I went higher with $20.4M).

The geriatric comedy Going in Style had an OK fourth place premiere with $11.9 million. I was close with $11.5M. The Morgan Freeman/Michael Caine pic will hope older crowds cause it to hold up well in subsequent weekends.

Ghost in the Shell was fifth with $7.3 million (I said $7.9M) to brings its unimpressive tally to just $31 million.

Finally, faith-based drama The Case for Christ made a decent case for itself with $3.9 million, just above my $3.4M estimate.

And that’s all for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: April 7-9

The first full weekend of April brings us a trio of new releases: family friendly animated three-quel Smurfs: The Lost Village, geriatric comedy Going in Style with Morgan Freeman and Michael Caine, and faith-based drama The Case for Christ. You can peruse my detailed individual prediction posts on them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/03/29/smurfs-the-lost-village-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/03/29/going-in-style-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/04/03/the-case-for-christ-box-office-prediction/

As I see it, the Smurfs should easily be tops among the newbies. Yet it may not earn enough to topple the current #1 and #2 which also appeal to families – The Boss Baby and Beauty in the Beast. In fact, we could a rather close battle between Baby and Beauty this time around.

Going in Style has some sleeper potential, but I’m predicting a low double digits premiere which would put it in fourth place.

Ghost in the Shell had a disappointing opening (more on that below) and should lose a significant chunk of its audience in weekend #2 to round out the top five.

The Case for Christ is debuting on approximately 1100 screens. I’ve got it slated to earn $3.4 million, which would put outside the top five.

And with that, your top 5 estimates for the weekend:

1. The Boss Baby

Predicted Gross: $26.1 million (representing a drop of 48%)

2. Beauty and the Beast

Predicted Gross: $24 million (representing a drop of 47%)

3. Smurfs: The Lost Village

Predicted Gross: $20.4 million

4. Going in Style

Predicted Gross: $11.5 million

5. Ghost in the Shell

Predicted Gross: $7.9 million (representing a drop of 58%)

Box Office Results (March 31-April 2)

In a bit of an upset, Dreamworks animated The Boss Baby topped the charts with a fantastic $50.1 million, blowing past my meager $28.6M prediction. The Alec Baldwin voiced ‘toon proved critic proof (it stands at just 48% on Rotten Tomatoes) and gives its studio a sizable hit.

Beauty and the Beast continued its terrific run, but slipped to second with $45.4 million (just under my $48.8M estimate) for a total gross of $393M.

In a March frame where most pictures exceeded expectations, Ghost in the Shell achieved the opposite with a weak $18.6 million for third. This is well below my $30.3M prediction and it’s clear that casting controversies and mediocre reviews helped contribute to the middling premiere.

Power Rangers took a precipitous tumble in its sophomore frame with $14.2 million for fourth place, considerably under my $20.1M forecast. The severe second weekend drop puts in question any planned sequels.

Kong: Skull Island rounded out the top five at $8.5 million (I said $7.9M) for a $147M overall tally.

Finally, The Zookeeper’s Wife overcame so-so reviews with a pleasing showing in 10th with $3.2 million on only 541 screens. This bested my $2.1M projection and it could show sturdy legs as it expands its theater count this weekend. It’s per screen average was actually higher than that of Ghost in the Shell.

That’s it for now, folks! Until next time…

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