Box Office Predictions: April 7-9

The first full weekend of April brings us a trio of new releases: family friendly animated three-quel Smurfs: The Lost Village, geriatric comedy Going in Style with Morgan Freeman and Michael Caine, and faith-based drama The Case for Christ. You can peruse my detailed individual prediction posts on them here:

As I see it, the Smurfs should easily be tops among the newbies. Yet it may not earn enough to topple the current #1 and #2 which also appeal to families – The Boss Baby and Beauty in the Beast. In fact, we could a rather close battle between Baby and Beauty this time around.

Going in Style has some sleeper potential, but I’m predicting a low double digits premiere which would put it in fourth place.

Ghost in the Shell had a disappointing opening (more on that below) and should lose a significant chunk of its audience in weekend #2 to round out the top five.

The Case for Christ is debuting on approximately 1100 screens. I’ve got it slated to earn $3.4 million, which would put outside the top five.

And with that, your top 5 estimates for the weekend:

1. The Boss Baby

Predicted Gross: $26.1 million (representing a drop of 48%)

2. Beauty and the Beast

Predicted Gross: $24 million (representing a drop of 47%)

3. Smurfs: The Lost Village

Predicted Gross: $20.4 million

4. Going in Style

Predicted Gross: $11.5 million

5. Ghost in the Shell

Predicted Gross: $7.9 million (representing a drop of 58%)

Box Office Results (March 31-April 2)

In a bit of an upset, Dreamworks animated The Boss Baby topped the charts with a fantastic $50.1 million, blowing past my meager $28.6M prediction. The Alec Baldwin voiced ‘toon proved critic proof (it stands at just 48% on Rotten Tomatoes) and gives its studio a sizable hit.

Beauty and the Beast continued its terrific run, but slipped to second with $45.4 million (just under my $48.8M estimate) for a total gross of $393M.

In a March frame where most pictures exceeded expectations, Ghost in the Shell achieved the opposite with a weak $18.6 million for third. This is well below my $30.3M prediction and it’s clear that casting controversies and mediocre reviews helped contribute to the middling premiere.

Power Rangers took a precipitous tumble in its sophomore frame with $14.2 million for fourth place, considerably under my $20.1M forecast. The severe second weekend drop puts in question any planned sequels.

Kong: Skull Island rounded out the top five at $8.5 million (I said $7.9M) for a $147M overall tally.

Finally, The Zookeeper’s Wife overcame so-so reviews with a pleasing showing in 10th with $3.2 million on only 541 screens. This bested my $2.1M projection and it could show sturdy legs as it expands its theater count this weekend. It’s per screen average was actually higher than that of Ghost in the Shell. 

That’s it for now, folks! Until next time…

1 thought on “Box Office Predictions: April 7-9

  1. Yo Todd!

    One more weekend to the unofficial start of the Summer Movie Box Office season!!

    Smurfs: The Lost Village – $17.2M
    Going in Style – $8.8M
    The Case for Christ – $4M

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