Tag: Box Office Results

Box Office Predictions: August 18-20

Mid August at the box office comes with some star power as two new pictures open competing for the same audience: Ryan Reynolds/Samuel L. Jackson action comedy The Hitman’s Bodyguard and Steven Soderbergh’s heist action comedy Logan Lucky with Channing Tatum and Daniel Craig. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on both of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/08/09/the-hitmans-bodyguard-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/08/09/logan-lucky-box-office-prediction/

The newbies could find themselves in a battle for the #1 spot. Lucky is winning on the reviews side with a terrific 96% on Rotten Tomatoes while Bodyguard stands at 55%. However, my inkling is that Mr. Reynolds will edge out Mr. Tatum with a gross in the mid to higher teens with Lucky in the lower teens.

There’s also the matter of Annabelle: Creation, which got off to a strong start this past weekend (more on that below). If Bodyguard and Lucky both underwhelm, the demonic doll has a slight chance to repeat at #1. However, the horror prequel is likely to suffer a drop in the mid to high 50s. If it all pans out as I see it, we will have our fourth weekend of 2017 where no movie manages to top $20 million.

The rest of the top five should be filled out by holdovers Dunkirk and The Nut Job 2: Nutty by Nature in its second frame after a weak start.

Lastly, the Taylor Sheridan directed thriller Wind River with Jeremy Renner and Elizabeth Olsen is slated to expand to approximately 600-700 screens. It’s been performing well with critics and in limited release. If that screen count holds true, I’d peg it at $3.1 million this weekend.

And with that, my top 5 projections for the weekend:

1. The Hitman’s Bodyguard

Predicted Gross: $16.7 million

2. Annabelle: Creation

Predicted Gross: $14.6 million (representing a drop of 58%)

3. Logan Lucky

Predicted Gross: $10.5 million

4. Dunkirk

Predicted Gross: $7 million (representing a drop of 36%)

5. The Nut Job 2: Nutty by Nature

Predicted Gross: $4.5 million (representing a drop of 46%)

Box Office Results (August 11-13)

Annabelle: Creation scared up some solid business taking in $35 million (beating my $31.4M forecast) to easily place #1. The horror prequel fell just shy of the $37.1 million accomplished by its 2014 predecessor and keeps the Conjuring universe chugging right along.

Dunkirk remained in second with $10.8 million (I was a touch higher at $11.7M). It’s made $153M thus far.

Family audiences largely rejected The Nut Job 2: Nutty by Nature, which debuted in third to just $8.3 million (under my $12.2M prediction). The sequel made less than half of the $19 million achieved out of the gate by the 2014 original. Opening on over 4000 screens, it had a per screen average of just over $2,000. On the bright side, parents who did take their kids to see it probably had plenty of room to roam about the theater. Ouch.

The Dark Tower went from first to fourth with $7.8 million (I said $7.6M). bringing its lackluster two-week tally to only $34M.

Girls Trip placed fifth with $6.4 million (I projected $7.2M) as it stands at $97M and should cross the century mark this week.

The Emoji Movie was #6, also with $6.4 million (I said $6M) for a $63M total.

Finally, Brie Larson drama The Glass Castle had a respectable debut in ninth with $4.6 million (I was close at $4.2M). On a relatively small 1400+ screens, it actually achieved the second highest per screen average of the top ten.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: August 11-13

August rolled in like a lamb at the box office and three new releases this weekend will try and pick things up: horror prequel Annabelle: Creation, animated sequel The Nut Job 2: Nutty by Nature, and Brie Larson led drama The Glass Castle. You can peruse my detailed individual prediction posts on each of them here:

Annabelle: Creation Box Office Prediction

The Nut Job 2: Nutty by Nature Box Office Prediction

The Glass Castle Box Office Prediction

Annabelle has received significantly better reviews than its predecessor, yet I still question its ability to open above it (the original was coming hot on the heels of The Conjuring). Still, my estimate for Creation has it easily topping the charts in the low 30s.

My lower teens estimate for Nutty by Nature (yeah you know me) should be good enough for second place considering expectations for holdovers and the weak debut of current #1 The Dark Tower (more on its opening below).

As for The Glass Castle, the current theater count is 1400 which is pretty low. Even though it’s based on a popular book from 2005, the marketing campaign seems rather quiet and I’ve got it outside the top five at $4.2 million. Note that this number could be revised up (and maybe down though doubtful) as the week rolls along.

Dunkirk may just fall one spot to third with Tower dropping to fourth. The five spot could be a battle between The Emoji Movie and Girls Trip. And with that, we’ll do a top 6 projections for this particular weekend:

1. Annabelle: Creation

Predicted Gross: $31.4 million

2. The Nut Job 2: Nutty by Nature

Predicted Gross: $12.2 million

3. Dunkirk

Predicted Gross: $11.7 million (representing a drop of 31%)

4. The Dark Tower

Predicted Gross: $7.6 million (representing a drop of 60%)

5. Girls Trip

Predicted Gross: $7.2 million (representing a drop of 37%)

6. The Emoji Movie

Predicted Gross: $6 million (representing a drop of 50%)

Box Office Results (August 4-6)

The long-awaited adaptation of Stephen King’s The Dark Tower experienced four revisions down from my original prediction post which put it in the mid 30s (that seems like a long time ago). It soon became clear the pic wasn’t going to perform too well and that bore out with $19.1 million (my final prediction was $18.4M). That’s still good for first place, but it’s a pretty darn soft debut. Poor reviews and word-of-mouth took its toll. This was only the third weekend of the year (and first of the summer) to feature a #1 movie performing under $20M (though I’d anticipate more later in the month).

Dunkirk dropped to second after two weeks on top with $17.1 million (ahead of my predicted $15.5M) for a total of $133M.

The Emoji Movie was third in its sophomore frame with $12 million (I said $11.4M) to bring its two-week tally to $49M.

Girls Trip took the four spot with $11.4 million, a bit shy of my $12.9M projection to bring the sleeper hit’s total to $85M.

The Halle Berry thriller Kidnap had a decent little opening in fifth with $10 million, easily outpacing my $6.8M projection. Its double digit debut was certainly on the higher end of expectations.

For Kathryn Bigelow’s Detroit, its performance was underwhelming. Despite very positive reviews, the 1960s set racial drama placed 8th with just $7.1 million compared to my $11.6M forecast.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: August 4-6

Blogger’s Note (08/03): On eve of debut, revising Dark Tower down significantly

The month of August begins at the box office with three new releases hitting multiplexes: the long in the works Stephen King adaptation The Dark Tower with Idris Elba and Matthew McConaughey, Kathryn Bigelow’s 1960s set racial drama Detroit, and Halle Berry’s oft delayed thriller Kidnap. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/07/26/the-dark-tower-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/07/26/detroit-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/07/26/kidnap-box-office-prediction/

Over the past week, I have considerably revised my Dark Tower estimate down from a mid 30s debut to now mid 20s. That should be enough to get it to #1, however.

Detroit is garnering highly positive reviews and could certainly over perform, but I’ve got it pegged in the low double digits with a likelihood it plays well through the month. That might be good for anywhere between third and fifth – depending on holdover activity for Emoji Movie and Girls Trip. 

Kidnap could surprise (no one thought Berry’s The Call would do the business it did), but I’m not projecting much for it. My $6.8M estimate puts it outside the top five.

As for holdovers, Dunkirk should slide to second after two weeks on top. Animated movies typically suffer smallish drops in their sophomore weekend, but The Emoji Movie could be an exception to the rule after its dismal reviews and so-so B Cinemascore grade. Girls Trip should continue to impress in week #3.

And with that, my top 5 predictions for the weekend ahead:

1. The Dark Tower

Predicted Gross: $18.4 million

2. Dunkirk

Predicted Gross: $15.5 million (representing a drop of 42%)

3. Girls Trip 

Predicted Gross: $12.9 million (representing a drop of 34%)

4. Detroit

Predicted Gross: $11.6 million

5. The Emoji Movie

Predicted Gross: $11.4 million (representing a drop of 54%)

 

Box Office Results (July 28-30)

Christopher Nolan’s acclaimed Dunkirk was the first pic since Wonder Woman to stay atop the charts for two weeks in a row as it grossed $26.6 million (under my $32.8M projection) for a two-week total of $101 million.

The Emoji Movie settled for second place with $24.5 million, a bit below my $28.4M forecast. As mentioned, poor reviews and word-of-mouth could keep this from performing well in subsequent weekends.

Girls Trip continued its fantastic run as the comedy of the summer with $19.6 million compared to my $17.3M estimate. Its earned $65 million thus far with the century mark firmly in its sights.

Charlize Theron’s spy thriller Atomic Blonde did rather underwhelming business with $18.2 million, on target with my $18.6M prediction. Mostly solid reviews couldn’t keep this from a mediocre start.

Spider-Man: Homecoming rounded out the top five with $13.2 million (I said $12M) for a $278M overall tally.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: July 28-30

As July draws to a close this weekend, we have two new entries attempting to knock Dunkirk off its #1 perch. They are the animated pic The Emoji Movie and Charlize Theron action spy thriller Atomic Blonde. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/07/19/the-emoji-movie-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/07/19/atomic-blonde-box-office-prediction/

I’m expecting The Emoji Movie to post a debut in the upper 20s – not as high as The Angry Birds Movie from last summer ($38 million) but better than this summer’s Captain Underpants ($23 million).

As for Atomic Blonde, I’ve been consistently revising my projection down since last Wednesday. Even though the pic is getting decent reviews, I’ve gone from $26 million down to high teens. That would likely give it a third place showing (depending on how far Girls Trip drops).

Neither of those openings may be enough to keep Dunkirk from the top spot. I anticipate the critically heralded Chris Nolan war drama to experience a rather small decline in the mid 30s range (more on its opening below).

Girls Trip, coming off a terrific debut, may also experience a smallish decline. The comedy of the summer should benefit from an A+ Cinemascore rating and strong word of mouth. I have it pegged at a 40s dip.

Spider-Man: Homecoming should round out the top five. And with that, my top 5 projections for the weekend:

1. Dunkirk

Predicted Gross: $32.8 million (representing a drop of 34%)

2. The Emoji Movie

Predicted Gross: $28.4 million

3. Atomic Blonde

Predicted Gross: $18.6 million

4. Girls Trip

Predicted Gross: $17.3 million (representing a drop of 44%)

5. Spider-Man: Homecoming

Predicted Gross: $12 million (representing a drop of 45%)

Box Office Results (July 21-23)

Dunkirk landed on top debuting with a strong $50.5 million (surpassing my $44.7M prediction). Topping the $47 million debut of his last effort Interstellar, look for Nolan’s latest to experience rather meager declines throughout August.

Girls Trip broke the R rated comedy curse of this summer with a magnificent $31.2 million opening for 2nd place, topping my $27.3M estimate. Its budget is only a reported $30 million, so there’s likely champagne bottles popping over at Universal Pictures.

Spider-Man: Homecoming was third with $22.1 million, a tad above my $20.6M projection for a three-week tally of $251 million.

War for the Planet of the Apes dropped significantly in its sophomore frame, placing fourth with $20.8 million (I said $23.5M). The third franchise entry in the Apes saga has taken in $98 million.

While the debut news was celebratory for Dunkirk and Girls Trip, the same cannot be said for Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets. The Luc Besson mega-budgeted science fiction spectacle premiered to a weak $17 million in fifth place, in line with my $17.8M prediction. Look for it to fade quickly stateside while hoping to make some of its budget back overseas.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: July 21-23

Blogger’s Note (07/19/17): I’ve revised my Girls Trip number to $27.3 million, up from $20.3 million in original post below.

A trio of newcomers hit multiplexes this weekend: Christopher Nolan’s WWII action drama Dunkirk, Luc Besson’s sci-fi spectacle Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets, and raunchy and critically lauded comedy Girls Trip with Queen Latifah and Jada Pinkett Smith. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/07/12/dunkirk-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/07/12/valerian-and-the-city-of-a-thousand-planets-box-office-predictions/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/07/12/girls-trip-box-office-prediction/

As I see it, Dunkirk should appeal to adult moviegoers ready for something other than sequels and reboots. I have it slated to debut at #1 with a mid 40s haul and it will likely play well in subsequent weekends through the month of August.

War for the Planet of the Apes should lose over half its audience and drop to second. More on its opening below.

The real battle could be for the three-five spots. Spider-Man: Homecoming may lose a bit over 50% in weekend #3 after a larger than expected dip in its sophomore frame. I believe Girls Trip has breakout success potential. While it’s been a weak summer for comedies, Girls is garnering solid reviews and I think it opens to just over $20 million.

In my estimation, that puts the massively budgeted Valerian in fifth. It could certainly top $20 million, but my gut has it under that figure. The pic should perform better overseas.

And with that, my top 5 predictions for the weekend:

1. Dunkirk

Predicted Gross: $44.7 million

2. Girls Trip

Predicted Gross: $27.3 million

3. War for the Planet of the Apes

Predicted Gross: $23.5 million (representing a drop of 57%)

4. Spider-Man: Homecoming

Predicted Gross: $20.6 million (representing a drop of 53%)

5. Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets

Predicted Gross: $17.8 million

Box Office Results (July 14-16)

Critically heralded three-quel War for the Planet of the Apes dethroned Spider-Man for the top spot, earning $56.2 million. This falls under my $63.4M prediction. War played less like its predecessor Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, which made $72 million for its start and more like 2011’s Rise of the Planet of the Apes, which debuted with $54 million. While a decent showing, this is on the lower end of expectations for what War would accomplish.

Spider-Man: Homecoming fell a steep 61% for second with $44.2 million (I was higher at $55.2M). Spidey’s full inclusion into the MCU has amassed $207 million in its first ten days.

Despicable Me 3 held up a bit better than my projection in third with $19.3 million (I said $17M). The Dreamworks animated three-quel stands at $188 million in three weeks.

Baby Driver was fourth with $8.7 million (I said $7.8M) and its total is at $73 million. Surpassing the century mark looks within its grasp.

Kumail Nanjiani’s well reviewed romantic comedy The Big Sick expanded nationwide for a fifth place showing of $7.5 million. My prediction? $7.5 million! I would expect solid word-of-mouth will have this experiencing fairly small drops in upcoming weekends.

Wonder Woman was sixth with $6.8 million (I went with $6.1M) to bring its startling gross to $380 million. Barring some sort of totally unforeseen late summer surprise, it now appears as if Gal Gadot’s spin-off pic will be this season’s highest earner (something that was practically unthinkable just a couple of months ago).

Debuting in seventh was horror entry Wish Upon, which failed to scare up much business with just $5.4 million (I said $5.9M).

And that will do it for now folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: July 14-16

War for the Planet of the Apes attempts to knock Spider-Man off his perch from the #1 spot at the box office this weekend as the horror pic Wish Upon also debuts. You can find my detailed prediction posts on both here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/07/05/war-for-the-planet-of-the-apes-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/07/06/wish-upon-box-office-prediction/

As I see it, Spider-Man: Homecoming (coming off a fine debut and more on that below) should lose a bit over 50% of its opening crowd. That means my mid 60s forecast for Planet should put it fairly comfortably at #1.

Despicable Me 3 should drop to third. The wild card this weekend could be critically acclaimed rom com The Big Sick, which has been performing extremely well in limited release. It’s set to expand nationwide on Friday and could easily contend with Baby Driver for the four spot. I’ll put it just below Baby for now, but could revise my estimate depending on the official theater count arriving later this week.

As far as Wish Upon, horror flicks are always capable of over performing, yet I’m not expecting much for it. It could find itself in a battle for sixth with Wonder Woman. 

And with that, I’ll do a top 7 projections for this particular weekend:

1. War for the Planet of the Apes

Predicted Gross: $63.4 million

2. Spider-Man: Homecoming

Predicted Gross: $55.2 million (representing a drop of 52%)

3. Despicable Me 3

Predicted Gross: $17 million (representing a drop of 49%)

4. Baby Driver

Predicted Gross: $7.8 million (representing a drop of 40%)

5. The Big Sick

Predicted Gross: $7.5 million

6. Wonder Woman 

Predicted Gross: $6.1 million (representing a drop of 38%)

7. Wish Upon

Predicted Gross: $5.9 million

Box Office Results (July 7-9)

Marvel and Sony had much to celebrate this weekend as Spider-Man: Homecoming swung into theaters with a solid $117 million, right on pace with my $117.8M projection. Stellar reviews and Spidey’s entrance into the Marvel Cinematic Universe certainly helped.

Despicable Me 3 dropped to second in its sophomore frame to $33.5 million, a bit shy of my $36.3M estimate for a ten-day total of $148M.

At third, Baby Driver help up well in weekend #2 with $13 million, in line with my $13.6M estimate. It’s made $57M thus far.

Wonder Woman was fourth with $9.8 million (I said $9.9M) for a haul of $368M.

Transformers: The Last Knight rounded out the top five at $6.3 million (I said $7M) for a $118M total. It will easily stand as the lowest domestic earner of the franchise, which currently belongs to predecessor Age of Extinction at $245M.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: July 7-9

There’s only one new major release this weekend hitting multiplexes, but it’s a big one in the form of Spider-Man: Homecoming. This is the third iteration of the beloved web slinger with Tom Holland inheriting the tights after his cameo in Captain America: Civil War. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/06/27/spider-man-homecoming-box-office-prediction/

Spidey should easily rule the charts this weekend and my prediction puts it a couple million above what the original accomplished 15 years ago.

As for holdovers, Despicable Me 3 had a somewhat disappointing debut (more on that below) and I look for it to lose nearly half its audience in the sophomore frame.

Baby Driver, on the other hand, was quite a breakout hit and word of mouth is strong. Its drop-off shouldn’t be as pronounced. Wonder Woman and Transformers look to round out the top five.

And with that, my top 5 projections for the weekend ahead:

1. Spider-Man: Homecoming

Predicted Gross: $117.8 million

2. Despicable Me 3

Predicted Gross: $36.3 million (representing a drop of 49%)

3. Baby Driver

Predicted Gross: $13.6 million (representing a drop of 34%)

4. Wonder Woman

Predicted Gross: $9.9 million (representing a drop of 37%)

5. Transformers: The Last Knight

Predicted Gross: $7 million (representing a drop of 58%)

Box Office Results (June 30-July 2)

Illumination Entertainment’s Despicable Me 3 earned an estimated $72.4 million, which easily placed it first. However, this was easily $10 million below most of the lowest guesstimates. I projected a higher haul at $88.7M.

Edgar Wright’s critically acclaimed Baby Driver greatly exceeded expectations with a $20.5 million Friday to Sunday gross and a cool $29.5 million since its Wednesday opening. This blew away my respective predictions of $10.9M and $15.8M and proved that audiences are hungry for programming in the summer that isn’t a sequel or reboot.

Transformers: The Last Knight slipped to third with $16.8 million (in line with my $17.4M forecast) for a $102M total.

Wonder Woman was close behind in fourth with $15.7 million (I said $14.5M) to bring its massive earnings to $346M.

Cars 3 rounded out the top five with $9.6 million (I was higher at $12.1M) for a $120M overall gross.

The poorly reviewed Will Ferrell/Amy Poehler comedy The House was DOA in sixth place, earning only $8.7 million for its start (I said $13.8M).

Finally, Sofia Coppola’s The Beguiled expanded its theater count and took in $3.1 million compared to my $3.8M prediction.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: June 30-July 2

It’s a busy weekend ahead as Despicable Me 3 looks to dominate the box office as the Will Ferrell comedy The House and critically acclaimed musical comedy crime thriller Baby Driver are out as well. There’s also a significant theater expansion for Sofia Coppola’s Civil War dramatic thriller The Beguiled. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on all four here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/06/21/despicable-me-3-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/06/21/the-house-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/06/21/baby-driver-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/06/26/the-beguiled-box-office-prediction/

As I see it, Illumination Entertainment’s Despicable threequel will not reach the heights of its spin-off predecessor Minions, which opened to $115M two summers ago. I’m looking at a return in the high 80s.

The House appears primed for a second place debut (barely) now that Transformers: The Last Knight didn’t fare so well (more on that below). I have a strange suspicion that it could under perform, but it’s got Will Ferrell and is the only real straight up comedy out there so I’m going late teens.

Baby Driver (which rolls out early on Wednesday) could absolutely be a wild card with some breakout potential. It’s got great buzz among the cinephile community, but I’m not sure how much that will translate to robust earnings out of the gate. I have it slated for sixth.

The Beguiled had a terrific limited debut this past weekend and its 550 screen count has me estimating a $3.8M gross.

Holdover action should see a precipitous drop for Transformers with Wonder Woman likely having a smaller decline than Cars 3 considering the animated competition. The Last Knight could even be in danger of slipping to fourth or fifth if holds for the other two aren’t quite as pronounced as my prognoses.

And with that, let’s do a top 6 estimates:

1. Despicable Me 3

Predicted Gross: $88.7 million

2. Transformers: The Last Knight

Predicted Gross: $17.4 million (representing a drop of 61%)

3. Wonder Woman

Predicted Gross: $14.5 million (representing a drop of 42%)

4. The House

Predicted Gross: $13.8 million

5. Cars 3 

Predicted Gross: $12.1 million (representing a drop of 49%)

6. Baby Driver

Predicted Gross: $10.9 million (Friday to Sunday estimate), $15.8 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

Box Office Results (June 23-25)

Transformers: The Last Knight, the fifth in the decade long franchise, posted the worst stateside numbers for the series thus far. The critically panned pic earned $44.6 million over the traditional Friday to Sunday weekend and $68.4 million since its Wednesday debut. That’s well below my respective estimates of $57.8M and $81.5M. The previous Transformers low belonged to the 2007 original, which made $70 million for its start. Lucky for Paramount, these flicks still are doing solid business overseas.

There was a photo finish for second place as Wonder Woman made $24.9 million for the runner-up spot. That’s a bit below my $27.6M projection and the DC title has banked $318 million. Cars 3 went from first to third at $24 million and I forecasted more with $30M. The Pixar sequel stands at $98 million.

Shark tale 47 Meters Down held up stronger in its sophomore weekend than I figured. Its $7 million was good for fourth place and I incorrectly had it outside my projected top 5.

The Mummy was fifth with $6 million, under my $7.4M estimate for a $68 million so far. At this point, it looks assured the Tom Cruise pic will not reach $100M domestically and probably earn around $80M.

Finally, Tupac biopic All Eyez on Me had a massive drop in weekend #2, falling to sixth with $5.8 million (I was higher with $8.4M). That’s a 78% plummet and it’s earned $38 million total.

And that does it for now, folks! I’ll be back with next week’s predictions when Spider-Man: Homecoming swings into multiplexes.

Box Office Predictions: June 23-25

There’s only one new wide release offering this week and that would be Transformers: The Last Knight, which is easily primed to debut at #1. You can read my detailed prediction post on it here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/06/14/transformers-the-last-knight-box-office-prediction/

My prediction for it gives it the lowest traditional Friday to Sunday opening for the franchise yet. One reason is simple: Knight is out Wednesday so its extra two days will eat into the traditional weekend frame. The second reason is that I suspect this could be a series that’s losing steam. Still – the franchise is likely to impress overseas.

As for holdovers, Cars 3 looks to drop in the mid 40s in its sophomore weekend while Wonder Woman should continue its impressive holds in third place. The Tupac biopic All Eyez on Me is highly likely to experience a severe drop in its second weekend as even its first weekend gross was front loaded. The Mummy should round out the top five.

And with that, my top 5 estimates for the weekend ahead:

1. Transformers: The Last Knight

Predicted Gross: $57.8 million (Friday to Sunday), $81.5 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

2. Cars 3 

Predicted Gross: $30 million (representing a drop of 44%)

3. Wonder Woman

Predicted Gross: $27.6 million (representing a drop of 33%)

4. All Eyez on Me

Predicted Gross: $8.4 million (representing a drop of 68%)

5. The Mummy

Predicted Gross: $7.4 million (representing a drop of 49%)

Box Office Results (June 16-18) 

As expected, Pixar continued its streak of #1 hits with Cars 3 opening to $53.6 million, a bit under my $57.8M prediction. While this is a decent showing, it is the lowest of the franchise and the smallest summertime opening for the studio since 2007’s Ratatouille. With stronger reviews than its predecessor, it looks to have a rather solid hold next weekend before Despicable Me 3 hits screens the following weekend.

Wonder Woman continues to astound as it dipped just 29% in its third weekend to $41.2 million for second, outshining my $32.6M estimate. The DC juggernaut has taken in $275 million.

The Tupac Shakur biopic All Eyez on Me proved critic proof as audiences flocked to it. It made $26.4 million for third (topping my $22.4M prediction). As mentioned, it will probably suffer a precipitous fall in its second weekend.

The Mummy fell to fourth place with $14.5 million (a bit ahead of my $13.2M forecast) for a weak total of $57 million.

Shark thriller 47 Meters Down performed at the higher end of expectations with a $11.2 million debut, easily topping my $6.1M projection. Considering it was originally slated for just a VOD premiere last summer, this is a pleasing opening for Entertainment Studios.

Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales was sixth and I incorrectly had it outside of that. The fifth entry in the Disney series made $8.9 million to bring its tally to $150 million.

The disappointment of the weekend was unquestionably Rough Night, the Scarlett Johansson comedy that couldn’t overcome middling reviews and non-existent buzz. It generated just $8 million (well below my $15.1M estimate) for seventh place. This marks the star’s second under performer this year after March’s Ghost in the Shell. 

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: June 16-18

This should be one interesting weekend at the box office as four new titles make their debut: Pixar sequel Cars 3, Scarlett Johansson bachelorette comedy Rough Night, Tupac Shakur biopic All Eyez on Me, and shark attack thriller 47 Meters Down. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/06/07/cars-3-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/06/08/rough-night-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/06/09/all-eyez-on-me-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/06/09/47-meters-down-box-office-prediction/

As I see it, Cars 3 should easily take its place atop the charts (as pretty much all Pixar features do). However, my estimate for it puts it below both of its predecessors.

Wonder Woman displayed a remarkable hold in its sophomore frame (more on that below) and should hold the #2 spot over the influx of newbies.

If there’s one picture with breakout potential, it’s All Eyez on Me. Just two summers ago, we saw Straight Outta Compton greatly exceed all expectations when it grossed over $60 million out of the gate. Eyez doesn’t seem to have that kind of buzz going for it, but I’m predicting a sturdy third place showing.

That puts Rough Night in fourth with a rather ho-hum debut. It seems to be sliding down considerably from its original $25 million projections.

The Mummy stumbled in its premiere (more on that below as well) and I foresee a hefty dip in weekend #2 for fifth place.

Maybe it’s not wise to bet against audience love for sharks (The Shallows proved that last summer), but I’ve got 47 Meters Down earning the least among the fresh quartet for a sixth place showing.

And with that, my top 6 projections for the bustling weekend ahead:

1. Cars 3

Predicted Gross: $57.8 million

2. Wonder Woman

Predicted Gross: $32.6 million (representing a drop of 44%)

3. All Eyez on Me

Predicted Gross: $24.4 million

4. Rough Night

Predicted Gross: $15.1 million

5. The Mummy

Predicted Gross: $13.2 million (representing a drop of 58%)

6. 47 Meters Down

Predicted Gross: $6.1 million

Box Office Results (June 9-11)

As mentioned, Wonder Woman continued its terrific run by dropping only 43% (a noteworthy hold for its genre) to $58.5 million. This topped my $49.5M projection and brought its ten-day total to $206 million. The superhero flick stands a decent shot at overtaking Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 as the season’s hottest ticket.

Tom Cruise’s The Mummy was hindered by poor reviews and word of mouth with a second place opening at $31.6 million (a bit under my $34.7M forecast). While it’s doing better overseas, this will undoubtedly be a major disappointment stateside.

Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie was third in its sophomore frame with $12.1 million, under my $14.1M projection for a so-so overall gross of $44M.

Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales was fourth with $10.7 million (I said $10.2M) to bring its tally to $135M.

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 was fifth and I incorrectly had it outside the top five. It made $6.3 million and has earned $366M total.

That’s because critically acclaimed horror pic It Comes at Night had a soft showing with just $5.9 million in sixth (I said $9.5M). While reviews were strong, audience reaction has been negative and look for this to fade very quickly.

Finally, the combo of military themes and dogs gave Megan Leavey an 8th place debut with $3.7 million (I said $3.3M).

And that’s all for now, folks! Until next time…