Box Office Predictions: May 5-7

There’s only one new release hitting theaters as May opens, but it’s a massive one! Yes, summer 2017 kicks off this weekend as Disney/Marvel’s Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 debuts. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/04/25/guardians-of-the-galaxy-vol-2-box-office-prediction/

As you can see, I’m predicting the sequel to 2014’s huge blockbuster will post the 9th highest domestic opening of all time. That means it would be the second largest premiere this year behind March’s Beauty and the Beast.

I am expecting Guardians to gross more than the rest of the top ten combined and then some. All holdovers will likely lose hefty percentages of their audience as attention turns to Star Lord and Baby Groot. Much more on what those pictures did this past weekend below…

With that, my top 5 projections for our first weekend of movie summer!

1. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2

Predicted Gross: $166.4 million

2. The Fate of the Furious

Predicted Gross: $7.7 million (representing a drop of 61%)

3. How to Be a Latin Lover

Predicted Gross: $6.9 million (representing a drop of 44%)

4. The Boss Baby

Predicted Gross: $4.8 million (representing a drop of 49%)

5. Beauty and the Beast 

Predicted Gross: $4.7 million (representing a drop of 31%)

Box Office Results (April 28-30)

There was a bit more excitement than expected in this last weekend of April as some newcomers posted results that exceeded expectations… and one that did not.

As expected, The Fate of the Furious was #1 for the third weekend with $19.9 million, on pace with my $20.2M prediction. It’s made $193M thus far.

Surprise #1 was the terrific opening of How to Be a Latin Lover at $12.2 million, nearly doubling my meager $6.3M projection. Surprise #3 was the $10.3 million debut for Indian action epic Buuhabali 2: The Conclusion. How much of a shocker was that for me? Well, I never even ended up doing a prediction post for it!

The Boss Baby was fourth with $9.3 million, in range with my $8.6M forecast for a $148M total.

Surprise #3 belongs to The Circle, the techno thriller with a cast including Emma Watson, Tom Hanks, and John Boyega. The pic came in at the lowest end of expectations with just $9 million for fifth (well below my $16.3M estimate). With a deadly Cinemascore D+ Cinemascore grade, look for The Circle to close fast at multiplexes.

Beauty and the Beast was sixth with $6.8 million (I said $6.5M) to bring its gross to $480M. It now stands as the ninth highest grossing picture ever.

Finally, Sleight‘s grosses were just that as it opened in 13th with $1.7 million (I was a little higher at $2.4M).

And that does it for now, folks! Welcome to Summer 2017 at the movies…

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