Box Office Predictions: June 2-4

After a rather disappointing Memorial Day weekend at the box office (more on that below), June rolls in with two major releases: Wonder Woman, the latest in the DC Cinematic Universe and Dreamworks animated feature Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/05/25/wonder-woman-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/05/25/captain-underpants-the-first-epic-movie-box-office-prediction/

There’s little question that Wonder Woman will open at #1, but there’s wide variations on how much it will gross out of the gate. The pic has been garnering glowing reviews and that should help (its Rotten Tomatoes score is currently 96%). I currently have it in the low to mid 90s with the thought that the number could be trending up.

A potential battle may emerge for the runner-up position between Underpants and the second weekend of Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales. However, my estimate puts the non-Sparrow Captain just ahead at #2, as I believe Pirates will suffer a hefty decline.

Holdovers Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 and Baywatch (which should tumble pretty far after a bad debut) should round out the top five. And with that, my top 5 estimates for the weekend:

1. Wonder Woman

Predicted Gross: $98.3 million

2. Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie

Predicted Gross: $27.4 million

3. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales

Predicted Gross: $21.6 million (representing a drop of 61%)

4. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2

Predicted Gross: $10 million (representing a drop of 50%)

5. Baywatch

Predicted Gross: $7.5 million (representing a drop of 59%)

Box Office Results (May 26-29)

Disney’s Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales easily topped the four-day holiday weekend. However, it did so with the lowest debut of any of the five films since the original in 2003. The Johnny Depp pic grossed $78.4 million over the long frame, right in line with my $78.6M estimate. It is highly likely this will turn out to be the lowest domestic grosser of the franchise thus far.

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 was second with $27.1 million (I was a touch lower at $25.3M) to bring its total to $340M.

Baywatch, with wretched reviews and so-so word of mouth, performed a box office belly flop with $27.7 million from its Thursday to Monday roll out, under my projection of $39.4M. That put in in third for Friday to Monday portion of the weekend.

News was bad for Alien: Covenant as well. In its sophomore frame, it tumbled to $13.3 million for fourth (well under my $19.9M forecast).

Everything, Everything rounded out the top five with $7.6 million (I said $6.8M) for a two week tally of $23M.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

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