Box Office Predictions: May 26-29

Memorial Day Weekend is upon us and there’s two potential heavy hitters making their way to the multiplex: Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales, the fifth entry in the Disney franchise and Baywatch, the action comedy reboot of the 90s syndicated TV show. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

Pirates should easily place first, though my prediction puts it under the debuts of the three previous series entries. Baywatch should place second barring a majorly disappointing opening.

I’m estimating that current #1 Alien: Covenant will slip to fourth with Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 displaying a better hold in third. YA romance Everything, Everything should round out the top five.

And with that, here’s my holiday weekend Friday to Monday projections!

1. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales

Predicted Gross: $78.6 million

2. Baywatch

Predicted Gross: $32.8 million ($39.4 million projected Thursday to Monday debut)

3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2

Predicted Gross: $25.3 million (representing a drop of 24%)

4. Alien: Covenant

Predicted Gross: $19.9 million (representing a drop of 45%)

5. Everything, Everything

Predicted Gross: $6.8 million (representing a drop of 42%)

Box Office Results (May 19-21) 

In a tight battle for #1, Alien: Covenant just managed to eek out a victory with $36.1 million. Despite mostly solid reviews, the sixth feature in the nearly 40 year-old franchise came in a bit on the lower end of expectations and under my $44.6M prediction.

Following close behind was Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 in its third frame. The Marvel hit dropped to second with $34.6 million (a tad above my $32.2M projection) for a grand total of $301 million.

Everything, Everything posted a decent third place showing with $11.7 million, right in line with my $12.3M estimate.

Snatched was fourth in its ho-hum run with $7.8 million (I said $9M) for a tally of just $33 million.

King Arthur: Legend of the Sword is still a bomb, but it was in the top 5 in its sophomore weekend and I didn’t predict it would be there. It grossed $7.1 million to bring its meager gross to $27 million.

I had Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul debuting in the five spot, but it was sixth with $7.1 million (just below my $8.1M estimate). This is a franchise worst debut for the series.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

1 thought on “Box Office Predictions: May 26-29

  1. Yo Todd!

    Happy Memorial Day weekend, buddy!

    Here’s my 4 day weekend numbers:
    Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales – $79.9M
    Baywatch – $40M

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