My final predictions for nominees at the 97th Academy Awards arrives TOMORROW prior to the announcement on Thursday, January 23rd (pushed back due to the California wildfires). Before I make them, I’m taking a deeper dive into the six major categories (Picture, Director, the four acting derbies) with detailed thoughts on where I think each race stands.
The last post in this series is Best Picture. If you missed my write-ups for the acting derbies and director, you can access them here:
As I’ve mentioned several times lately, I believe there’s an octet of movies that have punched their ticket to the BP show. Let’s call them the easy 8. If any of these pictures miss the Best Picture cut at this point, it would be a major surprise. Four of them (Anora, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez) have shown up in five of the key precursors: Golden Globes, BAFTA, PGA, Critics Choice and SAG.
Two more (The Brutalist, Wicked) managed four.
Two more (Dune: Part Two, The Substance) were nominated in three. No other 2024 motion pictures had three or more mentions.
Now we have to consider the final two slots and that’s where it gets tricky. Before we do, let’s take a moment to recognize some efforts that won’t make the ultimate dance. Some of them could show up in tech races or see some of their actors nominated. Others didn’t cut the mustard with critics and audiences. A lot of these titles were, at some juncture, listed in my top 25 possibilities as I forecasted the race throughout the year. They won’t be seen tomorrow in my BP list. We’re talking about Joker: Folie à Deux and Gladiator II and Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga. Yes, I once saw Megalopolis as a viable candidate. There’s The Piano Lesson, The Apprentice, The Room Next Door, Saturday Night, Civil War, Kinds of Kindness, Maria, and The End.
That leaves me with 8 pictures to ponder for 2 spots. Unlike my previous posts on Best Director and the actors, I won’t be ranking these possibilities. After all, I gotta leave a little suspense for my final picks tomorrow, right? Nevertheless let’s walk through them one by one with some commentary.
All We Imagine as Light would be a threat to win Best International Feature Film had India submitted it as its contender. It was not to be and the Academy could make up for it in BP. Yet it hasn’t shown up in any of the 5 aforementioned precursors.
Challengers only has a Musical or Comedy nod from the Globes in its favor. A PGA nomination (which I wrongly predicted) didn’t materialize. This is a tough sell.
Nickel Boys has Golden Globe and Critics Choice noms on the resume. Many critics have it at the top of their 2024 best of, but it’s missed other key competitions.
Nosferatu has gotten some “spoiler” ink lately with some saying it could be this year’s Nightmare Alley. That pic from 2021 at least had the Critics Choice nod whereas Nosferatu didn’t show up in the quintet of precursors.
A Real Pain has undoubtedly had an up and down journey on the road to a potential BP nomination. It made the Globe cut and then missed Critics Choice and BAFTA. That left it down and out in the eyes of many and I dropped it from my 10. This week it popped back up at PGA and its fortunes could be stronger.
The Seed of the Sacred Fig should receive an International Feature Film nom. It has not gotten into the precursors for Picture though. Though I didn’t say I’d rank these eight, this is unquestionably at or near the bottom of these hopefuls.
September 5, like A Real Pain, has been buoyed by a PGA spot and it also made the Globes. Yet its exclusions at BAFTA and Critics Choice are noteworthy.
Sing Sing has had a rocky preseason, especially missing SAG and the Globes. While Colman Domingo seems locked in for Best Actor, the Academy will really need to fall for this. Of the five precursors, this only received Critics Choice.
There you have it. My microscope analysis of Best Picture for the 97th Academy Awards. After months of endless speculation, you’ll know my final predictions in about 24 hours!
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