Will Gluck, a veteran of the rom com genre with Easy A and Anyone but You to his credit, directs One Night Only which hits multiplexes on August 7th. The high concept love story stars Monica Barbaro (best known for her Oscar nominated work in A Complete Unknown) and Callum Turner. The eclectic supporting cast includes Maya Hawke, Julia Fox, King Princess, Ben Marshall, Ziwe, Molly Ringwald, and LeVar Burton.
The Universal production seems to be flying under the radar though female audiences could turn out in unexpected numbers. Under no circumstances will this approach the earnings of sleeper hit Anyone but You ($88 million domestic). Night could manage a gross of $10 million plus and hope that word-of-mouth keeps it performing decently throughout August. In the worst case scenario, it could flop like Turner’s Eternity did last November. I’ll say mid to high single digits is where it starts.
One Night Only opening weekend prediction: $7.8 million
As awards followers are aware, 2009 saw the Academy expand the Best Picture category from five movies to ten. That lasted two years and in 2011, it switched from anywhere from 5-10 with 8 or 9 as the magic number for several years. In 2021, the number reverted back to a set 10.
What if that hadn’t happened? What if the BP derby had stayed a quintet? What pictures would have made the cut?
On the eve of the 98th Academy Awards, let’s ponder what five would have done so at the 97th. One is for certain. We know that Sean Baker’s Anora has a reserved slot. It won five out of six awards it was up for – Picture, Director, Actress (Mikey Madison), Original Screenplay, and Film Editing.
Picking the other 4 of 9 for the final five is less clear. Here’s my best speculation.
The Brutalist
Brady Corbet’s epic immigrant drama scored ten nods and won three for Adrien Brody’s lead performance, Original Score, and Cinematography. Other nods went to the director, Supporting Actress (Felicity Jones), Supporting Actor (Guy Pearce), Original Screenplay, Film Editing, and Production Design.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes and it can certainly be argued that it was second in the BP voting.
A Complete Unknown
James Mangold’s Bob Dylan biopic starring Timothée Chalamet landed a laudable eight nominations – BP, Director, Actor, Monica Barbaro in Supporting Actress, Edward Norton in Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Costume Design, and Sound. It was one of two BP nominees that went home empty-handed.
Does It Make the Final Five?
I don’t think it’s automatic but yes. Despite the 0 for 8 tally, the fact that it made the directing five puts it over the edge.
Conclave
Edward Berger’s drama about the search a new Pope also landed eight mentions with the others coming in Actor (Ralph Fiennes), Supporting Actress (Isabella Rossellini), Adapted Screenplay, Costume Design, Film Editing, Original Score, and Production Design. It won for the script.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Like Unknown, not automatic but I’m going with yes because of the screenplay victory.
Dune: Part Two
The Denis Villeneuve sequel managed five nominations with two victories in Sound and Visual Effects and at bats for Cinematography and Production Design.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No. That handful is nods is only half of what the 2021 predecessor achieved and Villeneuve’s omission is telling.
Emilia Pérez
Jacques Audiard’s crime musical easily led the ceremony with 13 nominations. There were victories in Supporting Actress (Zoe Saldaña) and Original Song. Other noms were for directing, Actress (Karla Sofia Gascón), Adapted Screenplay, International Feature Film, Cinematography, Film Editing, Makeup and Hairstyling, Original Score, another Original Song, and Sound.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes. As you may recall, Gascón’s controversial comments likely sunk the pic’s chances at International Feature Film where I’m Still Here would emerge. However, at the time of the nominations, I feel Pérez still would’ve made it in the top half of contention.
I’m Still Here
The Brazilian political drama from Walter Salles was the beneficiary of Emilia backlash when it took the IFF prize. It was also up for Actress (Fernanda Torres).
Does It Make the Final Five?
No. Even with the late breaking international prize, the three noms are second lowest of the lot.
Nickel Boys
RaMell Ross’s drama is the only pic with two nominations with the other coming in Adapted Screenplay.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No and the question was pretty much answered above.
The Substance
Coralie Fargeat was nominated for director in her wild anti-aging body horror saga that won Makeup and Hairstyling and was up for Actress (Demi Moore) and Original Screenplay.
Does It Make the Final Five?
This was the toughest one to leave off, but no. I’d have it sixth. Had Moore received Best Actress, it might be a different story.
Wicked
With 10 noms, the adaptation of the acclaimed Broadway musical won Costume Design and Production Design. It additionally made the ballot for Actress (Cynthia Erivo), Supporting Actress (Ariana Grande), Film Editing, Makeup and Hairstyling, Original Score, Sound, and Visual Effects.
Does It Make the Final Five?
The case could certainly be made, but I’m going no. No direction or screenplay inclusions make the call a bit easier.
That means my 2024 final five consists of the alphabetically top heavy:
Anora
The Brutalist
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Emilia Pérez
The 98th Academy Awards air tomorrow and down the line, I’ll give you my top 5 for that show!
The ceremony formerly known as the SAG Awards is now the Actor Awards and the 32nd edition of the ceremony airs Sunday, March 1st. Kristen Bell returns to host a show that is tough to predict, especially in the supporting fields where no frontrunner has emerged via the precursors. Will the Screen Actors Guild help make it clearer or muddy it up even more?
Let’s walk through the six movie races with my thoughts and a winner and runner-up projection. I’ll have a recap up Sunday evening with initial thoughts and how I did.
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners
Over the past 10 years, this ensemble award has matched the Academy’s Best Picture half the time (Spotlight, Parasite, CODA, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Oppenheimer). I would definitely say the two pics with a shot to win are Battle and Sinners, the two BP favorites. While the former may have an edge with the Academy, my hunch is that SAG goes with Ryan Coogler’s sprawling cast.
WINNER: Sinners
Runner-Up: One Battle After Another
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Jessie Buckley (Hamnet), Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You), Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue), Chase Infiniti (One Battle After Another), Emma Stone (Bugonia)
This category has matched Oscar 6 out the last 10 years. Actress is the only competition where the possibility of a sweep is still open. Jessie Buckley has triumphed everywhere else and I see no compelling reason why this guild would change that.
WINNER: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Runner-Up: Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Jesse Plemons (Bugonia)
The idea of a Chalamet sweep was halted when BAFTA unexpectedly rolled with Robert Aramayo in I Swear (who isn’t nominated here or at the Oscars). My hesitation to pick Chalamet has less to do with that and more to do with the fact he won SAG Actor last year for A Complete Unknown. I could see Hawke taking this prize for his showy role or the voters selecting Jordan. Ultimately I’m not pulling the trigger on the upset, but don’t discount the possibility. There is a 7 for 10 Actor/Oscar match over the past decade.
WINNER: Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
Runner-Up: Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Odessa A’Zion (Marty Supreme), Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good), Amy Madigan (Weapons), Wumni Mosaku (Sinners), Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another)
Ugh… this is a tough one. There is no consistency among the precursors – Critics Choice went with Madigan, the Globes honored Taylor, and BAFTA picked Mosaku. One could certainly argue that Mosaku has the momentum and that if Sinners takes Best Ensemble, it increases the chances of a solo acting victory. Taylor could solidify her status as Oscar favorite with this award. This is essentially a three-way coin flip. Madigan could certainly emerge as this branch has shown the ability to honor the horror genre in a way the Academy doesn’t (see Demi Moore last year for The Substance). My gut says Sinners gets that one solo prize though I cannot stress enough that I almost went with Taylor. There is a 9 for 10 match with this branch and Oscar since 2015.
WINNER: Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners
Runner-Up: Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Miles Caton (Sinners), Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another), Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein), Paul Mescal (Hamnet), Sean Penn (One Battle After Another)
There’s a 9 for 10 match here as well and this is just as wide open as Supporting Actress. Critics Choice called Elordi as their winner, Globes picked Stellan Skarsgård in Sentimental Value (not nominated here), and BAFTA went with Sean Penn. In this case, I am going with the BAFTA momentum though his costar del Toro might pose the realest threat.
WINNER: Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
Runner-Up: Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another
Outstanding Action Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
F1, Frankenstein, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, One Battle After Another, Sinners
Tom Cruise’s franchise is known for stunts so I wouldn’t bet against it.
As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP posts are readily available for your perusing pleasure. Our first contender in the Best Actor five is on the table and it’s Timothée Chalamet for Marty Supreme.
Previous Acting Nominations:
2017 – Actor (Call Me by Your Name) – lost to Gary Oldman for Darkest Hour; 2024 – Actor (A Complete Unknown) – lost to Adrien Brody for The Brutalist
The Case for Timothée Chalamet:
After likely being runner-up last year, Chalamet has drawn career best reviews as the singularly focused ping pong player in Josh Safdie’s sports drama. Precursor appreciation has followed with victories at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice while he awaits the BAFTAs and SAG Actor. While he’s only 30, Chalamet’s body of work in recent years is seen as worthy of recognition and Marty is a supreme vehicle for it.
The Case Against Timothée Chalamet:
The Academy left his costars out of contention including Odessa A’Zion (who I predicted for inclusion). A domino effect for either One Battle After Another or Sinners could create an opening for Leonardo DiCaprio or Michael B. Jordan, respectively.
The Verdict:
Unless one of the upcoming precursors provides an upset, it appears the third time is probably going to be the charm for Chalamet.
My Case Of posts will continue with the first hopeful in Supporting Actress and that’s Elle Fanning in Sentimental Value…
Nominations for the 83rd Golden Globe Awards are out Monday prior to the January 11th ceremony hosted by Nikki Glaser. The highest profile Oscar precursor divides its six nominees for Picture and the lead acting races into Drama and Musical/Comedy designations. Between the 12 hopefuls for BP in those categories in 2024, it showcased 9 of the 10 eventual Academy BP contenders (the one exception being I’m Still Here). All five Best Actor Oscar nominees could be found among the six in the Drama race for the Globes (that will not be the case this year as heavyweights like Timothée Chalamet and Leonardo DiCaprio are in Musical/Comedy). It was a different story for Best Actress as four of the eventual Oscar players were found in Musical/Comedy with Drama victor Fernanda Torres (from I’m Still Here) rounding out the Academy quintet. You could find the five Supporting Actor nominees at the 97th Academy Awards in the Globe six and four of the Oscar Supporting Actresses (the exception being Monica Barbaro in A Complete Unknown).
In other words, it is smart to include the vast majority of movies and actors that you believe will be honored by the Academy into your Globe forecast if the math works. Two observations – this is where it would be helpful for Jafar Panahi’s It Was Just an Accident to have a strong showing after a disappointing one at the Critics’ Choice Awards noms. I’m predicting that it will. This is also where Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery could rebound after being blanked by CCA. I’m predicting that it won’t.
Let’s walk through eace race with my picks and an alternate!
Best Motion Picture – Drama
Frankenstein
Hamnet
It Was Just an Accident
The Secret Agent
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Alternate – Train Dreams
Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
Bugonia
Jay Kelly
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
The Testament of Ann Lee
Wicked: For Good
Alternate – No Other Choice
Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Ryan Coogler, Sinners
Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident
Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
Chloé Zhao, Hamnet
Alternate – Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein
Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama
Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Jodie Foster, A Private Life
Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love
Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
Julia Roberts, After the Hunt
Tessa Thompson, Hedda
Alternate – Laura Dern, Is This Thing On?
Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama
Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams
Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein
Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine
Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent
Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Alternate – Will Arnett, Is This Thing On?
Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
Rose Byrne, If I I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good
Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue
Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another
Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee
Emma Stone, Bugonia
Alternate – Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby
Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
George Clooney, Jay Kelly
Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
Brendan Fraser, Rental Family
Jesse Plemons, Bugonia
Alternate – Lee Byung-hun, No Other Choice
Best Supporting Actress
Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value
Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value
Amy Madigan, Weapons
Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme
Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
Alternate – Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman
Best Supporting Actor
Benicio Del Toro, One Battle After Another
Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein
Paul Mescal, Hamnet
Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly
Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
Alternate – Delroy Lindo, Sinners
Best Film Screenplay
Hamnet
It Was Just an Accident
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Alternate – The Secret Agent
Best Non-English Language Film
It Was Just an Accident
No Other Choice
The Secret Agent
Sentimental Value
Sirât
Sound of Falling
Alternate – The Voice of Hind Rajab
Best Animated Feature
Arco
Elio
KPop Demon Hunters
Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
Ne Zha 2
Zootopia 2
Alternate – Scarlet
Best Original Score
Bugonia
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Alternate – Jay Kelly
Best Original Song
“Dream As One” from Avatar: Fire and Ash
“Drive” from F1
“Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters
“I Lied to You” from Sinners
“Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” from Sinners
“The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good
Alternate – “No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good
Best Cinematic and Box Office Achievement
Avatar: Fire and Ash
F1
KPop Demon Hunters
Sinners
Superman
Weapons
Wicked: For Good
Zootopia 2
Alternate – AMinecraft Movie
That works out to these movies getting these numbers of nominations:
9 Nominations
One Battle After Another
8 Nominations
Sentimental Value, Sinners
6 Nominations
Hamnet, Marty Supreme
5 Nominations
Wicked: For Good
4 Nominations
Bugonia, Frankenstein, It Was Just an Accident
3 Nominations
Jay Kelly, KPop Demon Hunters, The Secret Agent
2 Nominations
Avatar: Fire and Ash, F1, The Testament of Ann Lee, Weapons, Zootopia 2
1 Nomination
After the Hunt, A Private Life, Arco, Blue Moon, Die, My Love, Elio, Hedda, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Ne Zha 2, No Other Choice, Rental Family, Sirât, The Smashing Machine, Song Sung Blue, Sound of Falling, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere, Superman, Train Dreams
A couple of months back, Benny Safdie’s The Smashing Machine played the festival circuit prior to its release and saw its awards prospects tumble. Benny’s brother Josh (they made Good Time and Uncut Gems together among others) goes solo with Marty Supreme on Christmas Day. After a “surprise” showing at the New York Film Festival last month, the review embargo is lifted today. Unlike Machine, Marty should be a smash at the Oscars and elsewhere.
The 1950s set dramedy features Timothée Chalamet in the title role (as an ambitious ping pong star) with an eclectic supporting cast including Gwyneth Paltrow, Odessa A’Zion, Kevin O’Leary (of Shark Tank fame), Tyler Okonma (better known as Tyler, the Creator), Abel Ferrara, and Fran Drescher.
Early reaction from the Big Apple indicated this should be a major player at the Academy Awards and today’s critical reaction solidifies the buzz. Rotten Tomatoes is at 96% with 88 on Metacritic. Supreme has been perched in my top 5 possibilities for Best Picture throughout 2025 and that appears to be the right call. Like One Battle After Another, Hamnet, Sinners, and Sentimental Value – this is a BP prediction that you should feel comfortable writing in ink.
That same logic certainly applies to Chalamet in what many write-ups are calling career best work. He will turn 30 two days after Supreme‘s release, but he is going for nomination #3 after 2017’s Call Me by Your Name and last year’s A Complete Unknown. I’ve had him ranked 1st for months based on the notion that this seems like an awards friendly role. Chalamet was also the likely runner-up for Best Actor at the 97th ceremony when he fell short to Adrien Brody in The Brutalist. There is competition for the gold at the 98th production, especially from Battle‘s Leonardo DiCaprio and maybe Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) and Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon). Yet the third time could definitely be the charm for Mr. Supreme.
Supporting Actress is tough to pinpoint. A’Zion is being called the breakout performance while Paltrow is being heralded for a comeback role. All scenarios are possible as they could both get in or cancel each other out. It makes it trickier that there’s potential double nominees for Sentimental Value with Elle Fanning and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass and perhaps Sinners with Wunmi Mosaku and Hailee Steinfeld. If only one makes the cut, I’m a bit stumped as where the edge lies. I’ve had Paltrow ranked slightly above A’Zion. Precursors should assist in offering clues. Right now my gut says both do not make the quintet and one of them does. I could flip a coin at the moment between them.
As for other above the line races, Safdie’s inclusion in Director isn’t automatic but the embargo lapse makes me more confident he gets in. Original Screenplay (from Safdie and Ronald Bronstein) shouldn’t be a problem.
There is a number of possibilities in tech competitions and it starts with the new Best Casting award which Supreme (with its unexpected roster choices) looks tailor made for. The pic also seems viable in Best Cinematography (from two-time nominee Darius Khondji), Costume Design, Film Editing, Original Score, and Production Design. A best case scenario could even include Sound though I suspect several rivals could close that door.
This means the A24 release could rack up a dozen nods under the rosiest projections with high single digits seemingly happening. Wins might be hard to come by in a number of them, but its lead has boosted his chances even more with a month left in the calendar year. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Instead of writing a full update on my Oscar predictions this week, I’m doing a deep dive on the six highest profile races: Picture, Director and the four acting derbies. It began with Supporting Actor and Actress and continues today with Best Actor. If you missed my write-up on the supporting players, you can find them here:
I published my first preview of the lead Actor field on April 8th. In that post, I listed my initial predictions for the quintet of hopefuls along with ten other possibilities. At that impossibly early stage of the game, my selections were:
Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
George Clooney, Jay Kelly
Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King
Paul Mescal, Hamnet
Jeremy Allen White, Deliver Me from Nowhere
Other Possibilities:
Lee Byung-hun, No Other Choice
Willem Dafoe, Late Fame
Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone
Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
Colin Farrell, Ballad of a Small Player
Jaafar Jackson, Michael
Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine
Matthew McConaughey, The Lost Bus
Jesse Plemons, Bugonia
Andrew Scott, Pressure
Let’s dispense with the easy subtractions, shall we? The Rivals of Amziah King with Matthew McConaughey seems more likely to release in 2026. Same goes for Jaafar Jackson in Michael and Andrew Scott in Pressure. Paul Mescal (Hamnet) will contend in Supporting Actor where I am predicting him to get a nomination.
The reviews and buzz simply doesn’t exist for Colin Farrell in Ballad of a Small Player or McConaughey in The Lost Bus. Same for Willem Dafoe in Late Fame though a surprise Globe or SAG or Critics Choice nod could make him a remote possibility. I would say the same logic applies to Lee Byung-hun for No Other Choice and Dwayne Johnson in The Smashing Machine. For the latter, subpar box office doesn’t help his chances which were once seen as rock solid.
Beyond the names above, there’s a slew of once promising contenders who have fizzled out for one reason or another. It includes Denzel Washington (Highest 2 Lowest), Will Arnett (Is This Thing On?), Brendan Fraser (Rental Family), and Oscar Isaac (Frankenstein). I don’t expect to see their names among the nominees.
So let’s discuss who I think is truly in the mix and it’s ten actors. Half will make the cut and half will not. There could be 11 via the soon to be screened Song Sung Blue with Hugh Jackman though Kate Hudson is rumored to be the awards play from that one.
From my first ranked predictions in April, I’ve had Timothée Chalamet in the #1 spot after he was probably the runner-up for Actor last year to Adrian Brody (The Brutalist) for his embodiment of Bob Dylan in A Complete Unknown. The review embargo is still intact for December’s Marty Supreme, but early word-of-mouth indicates the top ranking is justified and I don’t see that changing anytime soon.
Jeremy Allen White’s portrayal of The Boss in Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere is out tonight. His nomination seems more probable than not even though the pic itself is a question mark in BP.
George Clooney as Jay Kelly is more of an unknown as the movie has its ardent supporters and some detractors. If Kelly gets into BP, it significantly increases his odds.
Daniel Day-Lewis, a three-time winner, could get in just because he’s Daniel Day-Lewis. However, Anemone drew mixed reactions and was a non-entity at the box office.
Other than Chalamet, the performer I’m most confident makes the quintet is Leonardo DiCaprio for One Battle After Another. He’s a threat to take gold if the aforementioned competition fizzles out in the potential BP frontrunner.
Like Clooney, Jesse Plemons would benefit from Bugonia sneaking into BP. A better than currently expected performance from the film could grant him admission.
Blue Moon is a long shot for BP, but voters could still make room for veteran Ethan Hawke. He’d be vying for his third overall nom after supporting recognition for Training Day and Boyhood.
Train Dreams is also probably not on track for BP though Joel Edgerton has a so-so chance of getting in if other awards branches or critics groups bring him up.
Sinners, on the other hand, is a surefire hopeful in the big dance and Michael B. Jordan could get swept in for his dual role in the smash hit.
Wagner Moura was Best Actor at Cannes for The Secret Agent and I’m starting to believe his odds are increasing.
So there you have it. I think Chalamet and DiCaprio have punched their tickets with White close to doing the same unless Springsteen is a notable flop. The other seven are vying for slots four and five. My in-depth look at these high profile categories will continue with Best Actress!
A trio of new releases are vying for the #1 spot this weekend as musical biopic Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere, romantic drama Regretting You and anime fantasy Chainsaw Man: The Movie – Reze Arc are unveiled. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio here:
Potential over or under performances by the newbies make this an uncertain weekend. As mentioned, any of them could place 1st or Black Phone 2 could repeat atop the charts. I’m giving the slight edge to Springsteen with Jeremy Allen White as The Boss though my mid teens estimate means it would fall short of the eventual grosses of recent genre fare like Bohemian Rhapsody, Elvis and A Complete Unknown.
Regretting You has a shot of exceeding expectations since it’s based on source material from Colleen Hoover. The adaptation of her novel It Endswith Us was a smash last year. Yet my low teens take puts it in second as this doesn’t seem to have the buzz of the aforementioned.
As for Chainsaw, anime features (especially the most recent Demon Slayer) have been hot commodities, but this isn’t expected to reach anywhere that pic’s $70 million start. I’m going low double digits though it could surprise.
After a stellar start, Black Phone 2 should lose around its opening weekend audience with Tron: Ares shedding more than that and rounding out the top five.
Here’s how it see it shaking out:
1. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Predicted Gross: $16.1 million
2. Regretting You
Predicted Gross: $14 million
3. Black Phone 2
Predicted Gross: $13.7 million
4. Chainsaw Man: The Movie – Reze Arc
Predicted Gross: $12.8 million
5. Tron: Ares
Predicted Gross: $5 million
Box Office Results (October 17-19)
Black Phone 2 rang up decent business and outdid its 2022 predecessor with $27.3 million. That managed to top my $25.5 million prediction.
Tron: Ares fell 67% for $11.1 million in second, rising slightly ahead of my $10.2 million call. The flop of a threequel stands at $54 million after two weeks and this won’t be reaching nine digits domestically.
Aziz Ansari’s comedy Good Fortune couldn’t find it despite the star power of Seth Rogen and Keanu Reeves. It was third with $6.1 million, a shade below my $7.3 million estimate.
One Battle After Another was fourth with $3.8 million compared to my $4.9 million projection. The four-week total is $61 million.
Roofman took fifth with $3.7 million (I said $4.6 million) and it’s shackled with only $15 million in two weekends of play.
Finally, critically drubbed After the Hunt from Luca Guadagnino and starring Julia Roberts was ninth in wide release with a paltry $1.5 million. I was more generous at $3.5 million.
20th Century Studios hopes that Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere has a glorious first three days at the box office when it drops October 24th. Centered around the making of his 1982 album Nebraska, Jeremy Allen White plays the title character with Jeremy Strong as longtime manager Jon Landau. Scott Cooper directs the musical bio with a supporting cast including Paul Walter Hauser, Stephen Graham, Odessa Young, Gaby Hoffman, Marc Maron and David Krumholtz.
Nowhere was first seen at the Telluride Film Festival where it managed to generate awards chatter, especially for White (who’s won multiple honors for his TV work on The Bear). Overall reviews were somewhat tempered in their praise with 72% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 65 Metacritic.
Last year, A Complete Unknown (from the 20th Century umbrella under Searchlight) struck a chord with viewers to tune of $75 million. That biopic of Bob Dylan with Timothée Chalamet seemed to have more buzz prior to its release. Some estimates have Nowhere reaching $20-25 million, but I’m thinking mid teens is where its ends up.
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere opening weekend prediction: $16.1 million
Awards prospects for Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere are no longer a complete unknown now that it has premiered at Telluride prior to its October 24th domestic bow. Chronicling the making of his 1982 album Nebraska during a tumultuous personal period, Jeremy Allen White headlines as the legendary Boss in the Scott Cooper directed effort. Jeremy Strong (as longtime manager Jon Landau), Paul Walter Hauser, Stephen Graham, Odessa Young, Gaby Hoffman, Marc Maron, and David Krumholtz costar.
As reviews trickle in from Colorado, some common themes have emerged. Critics are praising its focus on a particular time in Springsteen’s legendary career and avoiding musical biopic cliches. Word-of-mouth indicates this could fare well with Academy voters like last year’s Bob Dylan centered A Complete Unknown. That includes viability in Best Picture, Adapted Screenplay, and down-the-line races like Casting, Film Editing, Makeup and Hairstyling, and certainly Sound. Cooper probably is a long shot for his direction though it is worth noting that James Mangold was a bit of a surprise nominee for Unknown.
As for the performances, White (a two-time Emmy winner for The Bear) seems poised for his first Oscar recognition. In the supporting derbies, it sounds like Strong is the better bet over Graham. Prognosticators have been wondering who would emerge between the two. If the Succession thespian makes the Supporting Actor quintet, it would be his second nom in a row after last year’s The Apprentice. While Odessa Young is being singled out in some write-ups, I doubt she materializes in Supporting Actress. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
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