Tag: The Substance

97th Academy Awards Predictions: June 9th Edition

My first Oscar predictions for the month of June shows that box office matters and the poor performance of Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga causes it to fall out of my 25 BP hopefuls. Meanwhile the acclaimed Iranian drama The Seed of the Sacred Fig rises 12 sports to #10 in BP with His Three Daughters falling out. Fig’s maker Mohammad Rasoulof is in the directing quintet for the first time.

The aforementioned Daughters is not just out in BP. Natasha Lyonne drops in Actress in favor of Karla Sofia Gascón in Emilia Pérez while Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson) replaces Carrie Coon in Supporting Actress.

In Actor, it is Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice) back in over Glen Powell (Hit Man). Yet the news isn’t all bad for that latter picture as I’m projecting the screenplay contests for the first time. Hit Man grabs a spot in Adapted Screenplay.

A reminder – the placement of performers is uncertain at press time. One example is Saldaña and Karla Sofia Gascón for Pérez. They could easily be switched and contend in one another’s races. In fact, I had it the other way around until now. There’s also Saoirse Ronan. I have her as a double nominee for The Outrun in lead and Blitz in supporting. She could be campaigned for Best Actress in both.

It will all shake out soon enough and here’s where I have nominations standing at the moment!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blitz (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Conclave (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Anora (PR: 7) (+2)

6. Queer (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Emilia Pérez (PR: 9) (+2)

8. The End (PR: 6) (-2)

9. The Piano Lesson (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 22) (+12)

Other Possibilities:

11. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (E)

12. The Apprentice (PR: 12) (E)

13. His Three Daughters (PR: 8) (-5)

14. Nickel Boys (PR: 23) (+9)

15. Nightbitch (PR: 14) (-1)

16. Maria (PR: 20) (+4)

17. The Fire Inside (PR: 15) (-2)

18. A Real Pain (PR: 24) (+6)

19. Hit Man (PR: 19) (-1)

20. Dídi (PR: 17) (-3)

21. Bird (PR: 19) (-2)

22. All We Imagine as Light (PR: Not Ranked)

23. Here (PR: 21) (-2)

24. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 13) (-11)

25. Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)

Not Ranked:

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

Civil War

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (E)

2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 15) (+10)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Joshua Oppenheimer, The End (PR: 4) (-4)

9. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Marielle Heller, Nightbitch (PR: 13) (E)

14. Pablo Larrain, Maria (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Ridley Scott, Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Azazel Jacobs, His Three Daughters

Yorgos Lanthimos, Kinds of Kindness

George Miller, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 1) (E)

2. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from supporting

5. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 2) (-3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (E)

7. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Tilda Swinton, The End (PR: 8) (E)

9. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 12) (+3)

10. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 11) (E)

12. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Florence Pugh, We Live in Time (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Noemie Merlant, Emmanuelle (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 10) (-5)

Dropped Out:

Zoe Saldaña, Emila Pérez – moved to supporting

Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

3. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 3) (E)

4. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (E)

8. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 8) (E)

9. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 10) (+1)

10. George MacKay, The End (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Andrew Garfield, We Live in Time (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Tom Hanks, Here (PR: 14) (E)

15. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Paul Bettany, The Collaboration

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 1) (E)

2. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from lead

4. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Valeria Golino, Maria (PR: 11) (+5)

7. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Emily Watson, Small Things like These (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 10) (E)

11. Catherine Keener, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 8) (-4)

13. Toni Collette, Juror No. 2 (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Naomi Watts, Emmanuelle (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Erin Kellyman, Blitz (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez – moved to lead

Robin Wright, Here

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

2. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 2) (E)

3. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

4. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 4) (E)

5. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)

7. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 7) (E)

8. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 8) (E)

9. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Michael Shannon, The End (PR: 12) (+2)

11. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Brendan Gleeson, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 13) (E)

14. Barry Keoghan, Bird (PR: 11) (-3)

15. Javier Bardem, Dune: Part Two (PR: 15) (E)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anora

2. Blitz

3. The Seed of the Sacred Fig

4. The End

5. His Three Daughters

Other Possibilities:

6. Hard Truths

7. Emilia Pérez

8. A Real Pain

9. The Apprentice

10. Kinds of Kindness

11. All We Imagine as Light

12. Challengers

13. Maria

14. Dídi

15. We Live in Time

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Conclave

2. Queer

3. Sing Sing

4. The Piano Lesson

5. Hit Man

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Two

7. Nickel Boys

8. Nightbitch

9. Joker: Folie à Deux

10. The Fire Inside

11. Here

12. The Actor

13. The Collaboration

14. Gladiator II

15. Small Things like These

97th Academy Awards Predictions: May 27, 2024

The Cannes Film Festival is complete and it has vaulted some pictures into contention while essentially eliminating others. Those on the others list include Francis Ford Coppola’s Megalopolis, Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 from Kevin Costner, and Paul Schrader’s Oh, Canada.

On the other hand, Andrea Arnold’s Bird and Ali Abbasi’s The Apprentice still have life, but certainly are not sure things. Same goes for Kinds of Kindness from Yorgos Lanthimos and Jacques Audiard’s Emila Pérez (I’m pretty high on its chances though).

The film that did itself the most good is Sean Baker’s Anora which took the Palme d’Or over the long weekend. It now climbs into my Picture, Director, and Actress (Mikey Madison) fields.

While the Iranian drama The Seed of the Sacred Fig by Mohammad Rasoulof is unlikely to be submitted for International Feature Film, there’s a chance it contends in BP and you’ll see it listed here for the first time as a possibility.

Let’s get into all of it and you can anticipate the next update in a couple of weeks!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blitz (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sing Sing (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Conclave (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Queer (PR: 5) (E)

6. The End (PR: 6) (E)

7. Anora (PR: Not Ranked)

8. His Three Daughters (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

11. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (E)

12. The Apprentice (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 18) (+5)

14. Nightbitch (PR: 12) (-2)

15. The Fire Inside (PR: 17) (+2)

16. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 15) (-1)

17. Dìdi (PR: 14) (-3)

18. Hit Man (PR: 19) (+1)

19. Bird (PR: 13) (-6)

20. Maria (PR: 22) (+2)

21. Here (PR: 25) (+4)

22. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: Not Ranked)

23. The Nickel Boys (PR: 24) (+1)

24. A Real Pain (PR: 20) (-4)

25. Civil War (PR: 21) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2

Gladiator II

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (E)

2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

4. Joshua Oppenheimer, The End (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Azazel Jacobs, His Three Daughters (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Jacques Audiard, Emila Pérez (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Yorgos Lanthimos, Kinds of Kindness (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Marielle Heller, Nightbitch (PR: 11) (-2)

14. George Miller, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Ali Abbasi, The Apprentice

Kevin Costner, Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2

Andrea Arnold, Bird

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 1) (E)

2. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 2) (E)

3. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: Not Ranked)

4. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 4) (E)

5. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (E)

7. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Tilda Swinton, The End (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 11) (E)

12. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 9) (-4)

14. Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Supporting

15. Noemie Merlant, Emmanuelle (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Florence Pugh, We Live in Time

Anne Hathaway, Mother Mary

Emma Stone, Kinds of Kindness

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

3. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 3) (E)

4. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (E)

8. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 8) (E)

9. George MacKay, The End (PR: 9) (E)

10. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Paul Bettany, The Collaboration (PR: 15) (+3)

13. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Tom Hanks, Here (PR: 14) (E)

15. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 10) (-5)

Dropped Out:

Kevin Costner, Horizon: An America Saga – Chapter 2

Andrew Garfield, We Live in Time

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 1) (E)

2. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Perez (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 4) (E)

5. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, The Nickel Boys (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 6) (E)

7. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Catherine Keener, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 10) (E)

11. Valeria Golino, Maria (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Toni Collette, Juror No. 2 (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Robin Wright, Here (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Erin Kellyman, Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Naomi Watts, Emmanuelle (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Maria Bakalova, The Apprentice

Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders (moved to Actress)

Cailee Spaeny, Civil War

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 6) (-1)

8. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Barry Keoghan, Bird (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Michael Shannon, The End (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Brendan Gleeson, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Javier Bardem, Dune: Part Two (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Denzel Washington, Gladiator II

Leigh Gill, Blitz

Anora Takes the Cannes

The Cannes Film Festival of 2024 is complete and, as always, it made the Oscar picture a little clearer with potential nominees as well as films that won’t be on the radar screen based on their French buzz.

One picture that did itself the most favors is Sean Baker’s Anora. The latest dramedy from The Florida Project drew raves and was named the Palme d’Or recipient (the highest Cannes prize). Three of the past four Palme winners (Parasite, Triangle of Sadness, Anatomy of a Fall) ended up with a BP nod from the Academy.

The film’s leading lady Mikey Madison did not take Best Actress. That instead went to a quartet of performers (Karla Sofia Gascón, Selena Gomez, Adriana Paz, Zoe Saldaña) from Jacques Audiard’s Emilia Pérez, which also entered the BP conversation. It is uncertain at this point whether Gascón or Saldaña, in particular, will be slotted in lead Actress or supporting come Oscar time. I currently have Gascón in the latter and Saldaña in the former and both have solid shots at inclusion.

In addition to Madison’s legit chances for an Actress recognition from the Academy, Demi Moore announced herself as a hopeful for her first nom in the heralded body horror tale The Substance from Coralie Fargeat. She is your Cannes honoree for Best Screenplay.

Anora‘s Sean Baker did not take Best Director (Cannes spreads the love). Miguel Gomes took that prize for the period drama Grand Tour. I wouldn’t pencil him in for a Director nom from the Academy. You have to go back to Pawel Pawlikowski and Cold War in 2018 for the previous Cannes winner who nabbed an Oscar mention. That is the only example in the 21st century.

Jesse Plemons is the Best Actor from Kinds of Kindness. Yorgos Lanthimos’s latest got its share of appreciative notices and I do believe it could contend for two or three Oscars. Plemons might be one of the benefactors.

As far as other acting possibilities, The Apprentice didn’t pick up any hardware. I do think Sebastian Stan (as Donald Trump in the 70s and 80s) and Jeremy Strong (as his mentor Roy Cohn) entered the Actor and Supporting Actor discussion. I also wouldn’t discount Nykiya Adams and Barry Keoghan in Actress and Supporting Actor for Andrea Arnold’s Bird.

Of course not all Cannes debuts lead to high praise. Francis Ford Coppola’s Megalopolis, Kevin Costner’s Horizon: An America Saga – Chapter 1, and Paul Schrader’s Oh, Canada all lessened their viability moving forward.

Keep an eye on the blog for new post Cannes projections in the six major races!

Oscar Predictions: The Substance

Cannes festival goers are going gaga over The Substance, a two and a half hour body horror pic from French auteur Coralie Fargeat. Demi Moore headlines as a former Oscar winner whose career is on the skids with Dennis Quaid and Margaret Qualley supporting. When our lead turns to highly experimental means to maintain her physical appearance, the grotesqueness begins.

At a festival where journalists breathlessly clock the runtimes of standing ovations, The Substance reportedly has the longest thus far. There are raves for Moore’s work. Despite performances spanning decades in several iconic films, she hasn’t received recognition from the Academy (unlike her character).

Despite the buzz, it might be a reach for this subject matter to get on Oscar radar. Still it’s worth not losing track of for what appears to be a real comeback role for Moore. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…