Blogger’s Note (06/16): On the eve of its premiere, I’m revising my Lightyear estimate down again – from $95.5M to $85.5M
Blogger’s Note (06/15): Revising my estimate down from $101.8M to $95.5M
Disney-Pixar is banking that the buzz for Lightyear will propel it to a nine figure opening orbit on June 17th. Serving as an origin story for one half of the beloved Toy Story duo, Angus MacLane makes his feature-length directorial debut. Captain America himself Chris Evans takes over vocal duties as the title character, replacing Tim Allen (who was heard in the four TS blockbusters). Additional actors providing the sounds are Keke Palmer, Peter Sohn, James Brolin, Taika Waititi, Uzo Aduba, and Isiah Whitlock, Jr.
The Mouse Factory is moving onward with theatrical only outputs for its Pixar brand after Soul, Luca, and Turning Red all hit the streaming circuit on Disney+. The last big screen studio offering was over two years ago with… Onward.
For over a quarter century, the Toy Story franchise has been a gold mine. In 2010, part 3 premiered with $110 million and eventually earned $415 million domestically. The fourth entry in 2019 built upon that with respective numbers of $120 million and $434 million. They also both took home the Best Animated Feature Oscar.
Lightyear may not quite reach those stratospheric heights since it’s a spin-off, but I don’t think it’ll come in with a whole lot less. I do believe a launch of just under $100 million is feasible.
Lightyear opening weekend prediction: $85.5 million
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 
Hold up — you dropped the predicted amount *Lightyear* will earn by $6 million on June 15 (from over $101.5 M, and you changed the penultimate paragraph too), but you didn’t notate that you had edited anything. You left June 7 as the date so it looks like you came up with this over a week earlier. Why don’t you make it clear when you change amounts and verbiage at the last minute? Since you are in the Box Office prediction game, it seems like you would do that.
I usually do note a change, but was holding off to see if I revise down again tomorrow. I will note 🙂