***And a final update for Top Gun: Maverick as my prediction rises again to $113.4 million for the three-day and $138 million for the four-day. That it gives it the #2 all-time Memorial Day for both frames.
***Blogger’s Note: Another day, another significant update raising my Top Gun: Maverick prediction. Now at $103.7M for the three-day and $124.4M for the four-day.
**Blogger’s Note (05/24): My Top Gun: Maverick prediction has risen from a $75.6M and $98.8M three and four-day start to $86.6M and $104.9M
Tom Cruise is poised to land his largest debut of all time over this Memorial Day weekend with the long in development sequel Top Gun: Maverick as the animated The Bob’s Burgers Movie is also served up. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the pair here:
Arriving 36 years after the first entry made Cruise a superstar, Maverick is generating terrific buzz. For the three-day portion of the holiday frame, it needs to surpass the $64 million earned by 2005’s War of the Worlds in order to set a personal best start. I have it achieving that feat with over $10 million to spare with a gross just shy of $100 million for the Friday to Monday haul.
As for Burgers, it could find itself locked in a race with Downton Abbey: A New Era for third.
After a three-week reign atop the charts, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness will drop to second with The Bad Guys likely rounding out the top five.
Here’s how I see for the four-day frame and I’m throwing in the three-day projections for the newbies:
1. Top Gun: Maverick
Predicted Gross: $138 million (Friday to Monday); **$113.4 million (Friday to Sunday)
2. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
Predicted Gross: $22.1 million
3. The Bob’s Burgers Movie
Predicted Gross: $11.6 million (Friday to Monday); **$9.2 million (Friday to Sunday)
4. Downton Abbey: A New Era
Predicted Gross: $9.5 million
5. The Bad Guys
Predicted Gross: $6.2 million
Box Office Results (May 20-22)
The good doctor held off competition for the third week as Multiverse took in $32.3 million, ahead of my $27.8 million projection. The MCU juggernaut is up to $342 million thus far.
Downton Abbey: A New Era settled for second with $16 million, a bit shy of my $18.4 million take. That’s on the lower end of expectations and significantly under the $31 million that its 2019 predecessor earned out of the gate.
The Bad Guys was third with $6.1 million, in range with my $5.7 million prediction for $74 million overall.
Sonic the Hedgehog 2 took fourth with $4 million (I said $3.5 million) to bring its impressive tally to $181 million.
Alex Garland’s Men failed to attract an audience with $3.2 million for fifth. I was a little more generous at $4.1 million. Despite some decent reviews, the Cinemascore grade was a putrid D+.
Everything Everywhere All at Once was sixth with $3.1 million compared to my $2.7 million guesstimate. With $52 million in the bank, it is now A24’s highest domestic earner.
And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…