It’s the most wonderful time of the year and, at multiplexes, by far the most crowded time of the year! On Christmas Day, five pictures enter an already crowded marketplace. They are: Martin Scorsese’s The Wolf of Wall Street, the boxing comedy Grudge Match with Sylvester Stallone and Robert De Niro, Ben Stiller’s fantasy drama The Secret Life of Walter Mitty, martial arts flick 47 Ronin with Keanu Reeves, and the Justin Bieber documentary Believe. You can read my individual posts on all five at the following links:
https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/12/22/the-wolf-of-wall-street-box-office-prediction/
https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/12/22/grudge-match-box-office-prediction/
https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/12/22/the-secret-life-of-walter-mitty-box-office-prediction/
https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/12/22/47-ronin-box-office-prediction/
https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/12/22/justin-bieber-believe-box-office-prediction/
By my estimates there will be nine – yes, nine – movies that gross double digits over the weekend. And there may well be a fierce battle for #1. In this same holiday weekend last year, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey fell only 13% in its third weekend and I expect current #1 The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug to fall no further than 20%. This should put it in a neck and neck race with my prediction for Wolf of Wall Street.
Disney’s Frozen stands an excellent chance of gaining audience from last weekend and it too has an outside shot at the top spot. Another title I expect to post gains: Disney’s Saving Mr. Banks which had a rather middling opening this past weekend at $9.3 million but should benefit from positive word of mouth.
Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues had a solid opening ($40 million over five days), but it was at the lesser end of expectations. Still, the holiday time frame should prevent it from suffering a large decline. The same can be said for American Hustle, which started strong out of the gate last weekend with $19.1 million.
One thing is for sure: the film calendar doesn’t get more crowded than this. After that, many things are highly uncertain but here’s my best guesses for the Christmas 2013 Top Ten:
1. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Predicted Gross: $25.7 million (representing a drop of 18%)
2. The Wolf of Wall Street
Predicted Gross: $25.4 million ($44.2 million predicted for five-day opening)
3. Frozen
Predicted Gross: $22.1 million (representing an increase of 13%)
4. Anchorman: The Legend Continues
Predicted Gross: $19.6 million (representing a drop of 26%)
5. American Hustle
Predicted Gross: $14.9 million (representing a drop of 22%)
6. Grudge Match
Predicted Gross: $13.9 million ($24.5 million predicted for five-day opening)
7. The Secret Life of Walter Mitty
Predicted Gross: $11.7 million ($19.3 million predicted for five-day opening)
8. 47 Ronin
Predicted Gross: $11.4 million ($17.8 million predicted for five-day opening)
9. Saving Mr. Banks
Predicted Gross: $10.6 million (representing an increase of 15%)
10. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
Predicted Gross: $7.7 million (representing a drop of 12%)
These predictions would leave Justin Bieber’s Believe out of the top ten and likely in the #12 slot behind the second weekend of Walking with Dinosaurs.
And there you have it! My predictions for Christmas 2013. Of course, I’ll have updates on the blog’s Facebook page throughout the week with final results Sunday. And have yourself a Merry little Christmas, my friends!
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