Tag: Cars

September 11-13 Box Office Predictions

Spidey’s reign atop the box office charts looks to end this weekend with the release of Practical Magic 2. We also have the South Korean sci-fi action epic Hope and period action drama The Uprising out. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio here:

Practical Magic 2 Box Office Prediction
Hope Box Office Prediction
The Uprising Box Office Prediction

Reuniting Sandra Bullock and Nicole Kidman 26 years after their witchy original, Practical Magic 2 has a nostalgia factor and an appeal to a female audience that could mean an impressive start. My high 40s projection gives it (unadjusted for inflation) more in its first frame than the 1998 original made in its entire domestic run.

Hope is a wild card as the South Korean release boasts the widest opening from its country since 2019’s Parasite. The Wednesday bow has me thinking it’ll manage a fifth place start over the traditional weekend with nearly $10 million over the five-day.

My hunch is that The Uprising from Paul Greengrass and starring Andrew Garfield will struggle. Out on a smallish 1500 reported screens, my mid single digits estimate should mean a premiere just outside the top five.

As for holdovers, Spider-Man: Brand New Day may still manage double digits as it finally moves to the runner-up spot while The Odyssey and Coyote vs. Acme should be third and fourth. Here’s how I see it shaking out:

1. Practical Magic 2

Predicted Gross: $43.5 million

2. Spider-Man: Brand New Day

Predicted Gross: $10.3 million

3. The Odyssey

Predicted Gross: $8.6 million

4. Coyote vs. Acme

Predicted Gross: $6.2 million

5. Hope

Predicted Gross: $5.9 million (Friday to Sunday); $9.4 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

6. The Uprising

Predicted Gross: $4.2 million

Box Office Results (September 4-7)

Capping off a fruitful summer, the Labor Day weekend was a winner for the MCU as Spider-Man: Brand New Day put up $23.7 million from Friday to Monday. That’s right on pace with my $23 million prediction with the juggernaut hitting $923 million after six weeks. It is now just $13 million away from the all-time domestic record of $936 million held by Star Wars: The Force Awakens. That record looks to fall in the coming days.

The Odyssey was once again #2 with $17.2 million, eclipsing my $14.8 million projection. Christopher Nolan’s all-time largest earner grew to $588 million after eight weeks.

Coyote vs. Acme held up impressively in third for its sophomore outing with $16.1 million compared to my $13.2 million call. The tally is $38 million for the live-action/animated hybrid that nearly didn’t see the light of day.

The holiday weekend’s top grossing newcomer was By Any Means with Mark Wahlberg. The crime thriller was fourth with $9.2 million, a bit ahead of my $7.8 million forecast.

Disney/Pixar’s 20th anniversary re-release of Cars rounded out the top five with $8 million and I incorrectly had it outside of the top half of the chart.

Insidious: Out of the Further placed sixth and also took in $8 million (I said $7.5 million). The horror sequel has scared up $55 million in three weeks.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

September 4-7 Box Office Predictions

There are multiple new releases making their way to multiplexes over the Labor Day frame, but I only have one managing a top five showing. That would be 1960s set crime thriller By Any Means with Mark Wahlberg and Yahya Abdul-Mateen II as it attempts double digits over the holiday weekend. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

By Any Means Box Office Prediction

As summer turns into fall on the cinematic calendar, the MCU should be perched atop the charts for a sixth weekend in a row courtesy of Spider-Man: Brand New Day. A note that over this particular weekend, holdovers often experience minimal percentage declines or even a slight increase as moviegoers catch up on recent offerings. From Friday to Monday, I have Spidey essentially doing what it did in its fifth outing.

The Odyssey could return to second place from third while Coyote vs. Acme drops a spot after a notable premiere (more on that below). The latter’s second week drop is a head scratcher and it could be more front-loaded that I’m assuming. On the flip side, families could show up in solid numbers since it appears to have fresh word-of-mouth with an A Cinemascore.

Means may flirt with $10M+ in a best case scenario though I’ve got falling under for a fourth place start and Insidious: Out of the Further rounding out the top five.

As for other fresh product, I’m skeptical that horror offering Onslaught from Adam Wingard, survival flick sequel Fall 2: Deadpoint (out Wednesday), or Pixar’s 20th anniversary re-issue of Cars populate the top half of the top ten so no individual posts for that trio.

And with that, here’s how I have the top 5 shaking out and keep in mind that these are Friday through Monday guesstimates:

1. Spider-Man: Brand New Day

Predicted Gross: $23 million

2. The Odyssey

Predicted Gross: $14.8 million

3. Coyote vs. Acme

Predicted Gross: $13.2 million

4. By Any Means

Predicted Gross: $7.8 million

5. Insidious: Out of the Further

Predicted Gross: $7.5 million

Box Office Results (August 28-30)

As anticipated, Spider-Man: Brand New Day had no trouble swinging to a fifth victory with $22.5 million, in line with my $23.2 million call. With $891 million in its coffers, Day looks to exceed domestic record holder Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($936 million) in short order.

After Warner Bros jettisoned it as a tax write-off in 2023, Ketchup Entertainment squeezed some decent figures out of the live-action/animated hybrid Coyote vs. Acme. With $15.9 million, it was runner-up and surpassed my $13.8 million projection. Considering it was never going to see the light of day if WB had their way, it’s a better than expected result.

The Odyssey was third after four weeks in second position with $14.3 million, just under my $15.6 million call for a seven-week take of $563 million.

Insidious: Out of the Further dropped 59% in its sophomore weekend with $10.2 million compared to my $9.4 million take. The sixth feature in the horror franchise is at $43 million total.

With so-so reviews and muted WOM, Ridley Scott’s The Dog Stars starring Jacob Elordi, Josh Brolin, and Margaret Qualley failed to find an audience in fifth with $7.7 million (I said $8.3 million).

Finally, Roadside Attractions had a laudable showing with the low-budget Buddy in sixth. I didn’t do a prediction write-up for it, but the satirical horror tale made $5.5 million. The per theater average nearly equaled that of Acme.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Oscar Watch: Incredibles 2

This should come as no surprise, but reviews out today for Incredibles 2 (out Friday) are pretty encouraging. The sequel from Pixar/Disney arrives 14 years after the original, which stands as one of the vaunted studio’s high marks. The current Rotten Tomatoes score for part 2 stands at 97%.

As I would with any Pixar offering, we turn to its Oscar viability and that takes us on a trip down memory lane. The Best Animated Feature category at the Academy Awards has been around since 2001. That means the first three Pixar tales (Toy Story, A Bug’s Life, Toy Story 2) existed in a time when the category did not. I would say all three would have been nominated had the race been around (and the Toy stories likely both would have been victorious).

Since 2001, Pixar pics have won 9 times and they are as follows:

2003: Finding Nemo

2004: The Incredibles

2007: Ratatouille

2008: Wall-E

2009: Up

2010: Toy Story 3

2012: Brave

2015: Inside Out

2017: Coco

There have been two occasions where a Pixar movie was nominated and lost. In 2001, Monsters Inc. couldn’t get over Shrek. In 2006, Happy Feet took the prize over Cars. 

Five Pixar features have failed to garner a nomination. Four were sequels. The only outlier is 2015’s The Good Dinosaur. The others:

2011: Cars 2

2013: Monsters University

2016: Finding Dory

2017: Cars 3

Which brings us back to Incredibles 2. So where does this stand? Note that this sequel is the only one to a predecessor that won before. And seeing that early reviews are overwhelmingly glowing (even though some say it doesn’t match #1), I’ll predict this Pixar sequels makes the final five come next year. The director, Brad Bird, is also responsible for two of the Pixar statues (The Incredibles and Ratatouille). There will certainly be competition (Isle of Dogs was already released and seems assured a spot) and its possibility to win is still a giant question mark. Yet these superheroes seem primed for a return engagement down the red carpet.

My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

Cars 3 Box Office Prediction

Pixar has its entry in the summer box office derby as Cars 3 opens next weekend. The threequel will have the honor of being the highest grossing animated sequel of the season for two weeks until Despicable Me 3 arrives.

Owen Wilson, Larry the Cable Guy, Cristela Alonzo, Armie Hammer, Bonnie Hunt, Kerry Washington, and Nathan Fillion are among the actors lending their voices to the project. Reportedly, the late Paul Newman (who contributed to the original) will also be heard in flashback sequences.

The auto themed comedy franchise is not considered among the best that Pixar has produced. The 2006 original opened to $60 million with an eventual $244 million domestic haul. The 2011 sequel premiered a bit higher at $66 million, but earned considerably less overall at $191 million. That’s rather low compared to what Pixar has done in recent years. It’s also worth noting that Cars 2 is generally considered the worst of the 17 pictures the studio has produced thus far.

Bottom line: summer ’17 Pixar will be nothing compared to summer ’16 Pixar when Finding Dory opened to $135 million and ended up being the season’s highest grosser at $486 million. I’ll predict Cars 3 does manage to make just under what the first did 11 years ago and eventually struggles to make $191 million made by its predecessor.

Cars 3 opening weekend prediction: $57.8 million

For my Rough Night prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/06/08/rough-night-box-office-prediction/

For my All Eyez on Me prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/06/09/all-eyez-on-me-box-office-prediction/

For my 47 Meters Down prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/06/09/47-meters-down-box-office-prediction/

 

Summer 2006: The Top Ten Hits and More

Last week, I brought you top ten summer movies – along with other notable pics and flops – of 1996. Now it’s time to recount what was before our collective eyeballs 10 summers ago in 2006.

As I do with these lists, we’ll count down the top ten and then mention some others that made their mark, both positively and negatively.

10. The Devil Wears Prada

Domestic Gross: $124 million

Meryl Streep received her 267th Oscar nomination (or something like that) for this hit comedy which also helped break Anne Hathaway out of Princess Diaries mode.

9. Mission: Impossible III

Domestic Gross: $134 million

It may be in the top ten, but part 3 of this franchise that has now five entries is by far the lowest grosser (making $81 million less than part 2). This did give J.J. Abrams his first big directorial break and, as you may know, he’s moved forward with some other well-known franchises.

8. Click

Domestic Gross: $137 million

10 years later, he may be relegated to Netflix territory, but the critically drubbed Click gave us Adam Sandler when he still had no problem reaching the century club and then some.

7. Talladega Nights: The Ballad of Ricky Bobby

Domestic Gross: $148 million

Of the five Will Ferrell/Adam McKay collaborations, Ricky still stands as the highest grosser of them all. It’s first, not last.

6. Over the Hedge

Domestic Gross: $155 million

Dreamworks animated raccoon tale was a nice hit, even if it didn’t approach Shrek territory.

5. Superman Returns

Domestic Gross: $200 million

Coming nearly 20 years after the latest Supes flick, Superman Returns was Bryan Singer’s eagerly awaited reboot of the franchise. Yet its $200 million domestic gross was definitely on the lower end of expectations and critics and audiences were a bit disappointed. Seven years later, it would be rebooted once again with Man of Steel.

4. The Da Vinci Code

Domestic Gross: $217 million

Tom Hanks and Ron Howard teamed up for this adaptation of Dan Brown’s mega-selling novel and box office returns were heavenly, even if critics were quite mixed. Two sequels – 2011’s Angels & Demons and this fall’s Inferno – followed.

3. X-Men: The Last Stand

Domestic Gross: $234 million

Brett Ratner took over this franchise from Bryan Singer (busy with Superman) for film #3. Its reputation now is in tatters and is widely considered a mediocre experience at best. That said, it’s the highest grossing X pic domestically of all time – a full $1 million ahead of 2014’s Days of Future Past.

2. Cars

Domestic Gross: $244 million

It isn’t considered one of the greatest Pixar pics, but it still managed to pace second in summer 2006. The Paul Newman voiced effort would spawn two sequels – one in 2011 and the next coming in summer 2017.

  1. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest

Domestic Gross: $423 million

This summer features a Johnny Depp sequel flop (Alice Through the Looking Glass), but 10 years ago – he was the king of the summer with this follow-up to 2003’s The Curse of the Black Pearl. It easily blew all competition away.

And now for some other notable movies of the season:

Little Miss Sunshine

Domestic Gross: $59 million

This little indie comedy/drama became a critics darling and struck a chord with audiences and Oscar voters. It was nominated for Best Picture, Supporting Actress (Abigail Breslin), and gave Alan Arkin a win in Supporting Actor.

An Inconvenient Truth

Domestic Gross: $24 million

Former Vice-President Al Gore’s feature-length slideshow on global warming was a massive hit as documentaries go (it currently stands at 10th all-time).

And now for the flops of summer ’06:

Miami Vice

Domestic Gross: $63 million

Based on the iconic 80s cop show and directed by its creator Michael Mann, Miami Vice suffered from a reported troubled production and grossed less than half of its $135 million budget.

The Fast and the Furious: Tokyo Drift

Domestic Gross: $62 million

This is the one and only example of a Furious flick being listed as a flop as the series would majorly rebound when Paul Walker and Vin Diesel returned for part 4 a few years later.

Poseidon

Domestic Gross: $60 million

Audiences didn’t get on board for director Wolfgang Peterson’s remake of 1972’s The Poseidon Adventure, grossing just $60 million domestically compared to its $160 million budget.

Lady in the Water

Domestic Gross: $42 million

This is when it really started to go downhill for M. Night Shyamalan. Critics ridiculed it and it broke his streak of four hits in a row (The Sixth Sense, Unbreakable, Signs, The Village).

Snakes on a Plane

Domestic Gross: $34 million

The trailer got all kinds of publicity with Samuel L. Jackson expressing his displeasure at what was going on in the title. That buzz didn’t end up translating into much, however.

The Wicker Man

Domestic Gross: $23 million

OK, it’s another Nic Cage bomb, but it would gain notoriety later for this gem of a clip…

And that’ll do it for now, my friends! Next summer, you can be sure I’ll be bringing you a recap of summers 1997 and 2007!