Tag: Box Office Results

Box Office Predictions: February 19-21

Three new entries hit theaters this weekend to compete with the box office bonanza that is Deadpool. They are: Biblical drama Risen, Jesse Owens biopic Race, and critically lauded horror flick The Witch. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/02/11/risen-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/02/11/race-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/02/11/the-witch-box-office-prediction

Not one of them has any realistic shot of overtaking Ryan Reynolds and his very R rated superhero as that pic left a pool of box office records in its wake over the long weekend (much more on that below).

Risen, which could bring in a faith based contigent, could well end up in the runner up position with Race battling both How to Be Single and Kung Fu Panda 3 for the three spot. I don’t look for The Witch to accomplish much, despite its solid reviews, and have it pegged for 6th place (in what could be a photo finish with Zoolander No. 2‘s sophomore weekend after its disappointing debut).

The second weekend of Deadpool could see it falling in the mid-high 50s percentage wise, which would be on par with other major comic book grossers. Still, I couldn’t have been more wrong with how big it was going to be (along with pretty much all other prognosticators), so who knows?

Nevertheless – we’ll do a top seven predictions for this weekend:

  1. Deadpool

Predicted Gross: $58.6 million (representing a drop of 55%)

2. Risen

Predicted Gross: $14.2 million

3. Kung Fu Panda 3

Predicted Gross: $10.8 million (representing a drop of 45%)

4. Race

Predicted Gross: $10.6 million

5. How to Be Single

Predicted Gross: $9.2 million (representing a drop of 48%)

6. The Witch

Predicted Gross: $6.7 million

7. Zoolander No. 2

Predicted Gross: $6.1 million (representing a drop of 56%)

Box Office Results (February 12-14)

It’s only February, but there’s no question that the opening weekend of Deadpool will be one of the box office stories of the year. The well-reviewed R rated superhero pic grossed an absolutely astonishing $132.4 million over the traditional weekend – embarassing my meager $58.2M projection. The film’s four day President’s Day haul: $152.1M. Sometimes movies turn into phenomenons and that’s the case here. Expect to see plenty of Ryan Reynolds in this role into the future as this had the largest February and largest R rated debut of all time. Additionally, it had the 17th highest domestic premiere of all time.

Kung Fu Panda 3 dropped to second with $19.7 million in week #3, holding up considerably better my than $14 million estimate. The toon’s total stands at $100M.

Rom com How to Be Single had a respectable debut in third place with $17.8 million (on target with my $18.7M prediction) and its four day is $19.9M. Not a bad start and this certainly can claim a small victory for opening higher than the Zoolander sequel.

Speaking of, the news was not so good for Ben Stiller and company as Zoolander No. 2 stumbled out of the runway with just $13.8 million, well below my $20.9M prediction. This was expected to open in second place and certainly not fourth. Poor reviews didn’t help and neither did a good portion of its intended audience watching that filthy superhero instead. Its holiday four day total: $15.8M.

Oscar hopeful The Revenant was fifth with $6.5 million and I incorrectly had it outside the top five. Its total is at $159M.

Sixth place belonged to Hail, Caesar! in its second weekend with $6.3 million, in line with my $5.6M projection. Its total gross is at an OK $22M.

And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: February 12-14

Three potential heavy hitters open this joint President’s/Valentine’s Day weekend: R rated superhero pic Deadpool, Ben Stiller comedy sequel Zoolander No. 2, and Dakota Johnson rom com How to Be Single. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/02/03/deadpool-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/02/03/zoolander-no-2-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/02/04/how-to-be-single-box-office-prediction/

The new trio is likely to place 1-3 on the charts with current two week champ Kung Fu Panda 3 slipping to fourth and Hail, Caesar! probably rounding out the top five after a fairly lackluster debut.

Deadpool seems to be the one generating the most heat and it should dominate with Zoolander and Single in a close contest for second. With that, my top five predictions for the weekend:

**Please note these predictions are for the three day weekend and do not include the Monday President’s Day…

  1. Deadpool

Predicted Gross: $58.2 million

2. Zoolander No. 2

Predicted Gross: $20.9 million

3. How to Be Single

Predicted Gross: $18.7 million

4. Kung Fu Panda 3

Predicted Gross: $14 million (representing a drop of 34%)

5. Hail, Caesar!

Predicted Gross: $5.6 million (representing a drop of 51%)

Box Office Results (February 5-7)

As expected, Dreamworks animated Kung Fu Panda 3 stayed atop the charts while all three newcomers came in below my estimates. Panda earned $21.2 million, right in line with my $21.6M projection for a two week total of $69 million.

The Coen Brothers star studded comedy Hail, Caesar! had a ho hum $11.3 million debut, under my $14.3M prediction. While critics were mostly happy with it, Cinemascore audiences only gave it a dismal C- grade – hence my projection that it will lose over half its audience next weekend.

Holdovers Star Wars: The Force Awakens and The Revenant essentially tied for third, with each earning $6.9 million. The Revenant  (which was officially fourth) came in a bit below my $8.3M estimate and its total is at $149M. I incorrectly had Star Wars (officially third) outside of the top five and it has amassed $905M at press time.

The Nicholas Sparks adaptation The Choice had a limp debut in fifth with $6 million. I gave it too much credit with $9.6M. Same goes for newbie Pride and Prejudice and Zombies which placed sixth with only $5.3 million compared to my $8.1M projection.

And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: February 5-7

Three new offerings open up Friday to challenge current champ Kung Fu Panda 3: star studded Coen Brothers comedy Hail, Caesar!, Nicholas Sparks novel adaptation The Choice, and genre mashup Pride and Prejudice and Zombies. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/01/28/hail-caesar-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/01/28/pride-and-prejudice-and-zombies-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/01/28/the-choice-box-office-prediction/

As I see it, none of these newbies is likely to keep Panda from remaining on top for a second consecutive weekend. In fact, box office numbers should take a hit this weekend, especially on Sunday when the main competition comes from Peyton Manning and Cam Newton.

Caesar! looks best positioned for the runner-up spot while Choice and Pride could fight it out with holdover The Revenant (and possibly Star Wars) for the rest of the top five. And with that, my predictions for the Super Bowl weekend (I’m going Carolina over Denver 38-24 by the way):

  1. Kung Fu Panda 3

Predicted Gross: $21.6 million (representing a drop of 47%)

2. Hail, Caesar!

Predicted Gross: $14.3 million

3. The Choice

Predicted Gross: $9.6 million

4. The Revenant

Predicted Gross: $8.3 million (representing a drop of 36%)

5. Pride and Prejudice and Zombies

Predicted Gross: $8.1 million

Box Office Results (January 29-31)

As expected, Dreamworks Animated Kung Fu Panda 3 topped the charts with a solid $41.2 million, right in line with my $41.7M estimate. The threequel did post the lowest debut for the series so far.

Second place belonged to The Revenant with $12.7 million in its fourth weekend of wide release. It outpaced my $9.8 million prediction and its total stands at $138M.

Third place was Star Wars: The Force Awakens at $11.1 million, ahead of my $8.6M forecast for a cumultation of $895M.

The Finest Hours got off to a weak start (especially with a reported $80M budget) at $10.2 million for fourth place. My prediction? $10.2 million!

Fifth place was holdover Ride Along 2 at $8.4 million for a $70M total. I incorrectly had it outside the top five.

That’s because I gave way too much credit to the Marlon Wayans spoof Fifty Shades of Black. I had it opening second with $16 million. It opened tenth with a pathetic $5.9M. Oops. I’ll take solace in my great guesses for Panda and Hours.

Last (and least): the Natalie Portman Western Jane Got a Gun, which bombed terribly with only $835K for a 17th place showing, less than half my apparently generous $1.7 million projection.

And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…

 

 

Box Office Predictions: January 29-31

The final weekend of January brings four new offerings to the multiplexes: animated threequel Kung Fu Panda 3, Marlon Wayans spoof Fifty Shades of Black, true life rescue drama The Finest Hours, and Western Jane Got a Gun with Natalie Portman. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them right here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/01/20/kung-fu-panda-3-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/01/21/fifty-shades-of-black-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/01/21/the-finest-hours-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/01/21/jane-got-a-gun-box-office-prediction/

As I see it, Panda should have no trouble topping the charts with Fifty Shades coming in as a distant runner-up. The Revenant and Star Wars could find themselves in a competition for the three and four spots with The Finest Hours, which I have underperforming (especially considering its reported $80M budget). As for Jane, opening on just approximately 550 screens, my $1.7 million estimate for it should leave it outside the top ten.

And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:

  1. Kung Fu Panda 3

Predicted Gross: $41.7 million

2. Fifty Shades of Black

Predicted Gross: $16 million

3. The Finest Hours

Predicted Gross: $10.2 million

4. The Revenant

Predicted Gross: $9.8 million (representing a drop of 39%)

5. Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Predicted Gross: $8.6 million (representing a drop of 38%)

Box Office Results (January 22-24)

In a slow weekend where the winter storms in D.C. and NYC likely had a negative impact, Leonardo DiCaprio moved up to #1 with The Revenant. The potential Oscar favorite took in $16 million (under my $19.6M prediction) for a total of $119M.

Star Wars: The Force Awakens was second with $14 million, a bit under my $15.9M estimate and its record setting total now sits at $879M.

Last week’s champ Ride Along 2 suffered a huge drop in weekend #2 with $12.4 million (below my $16.8M projection). The Kevin Hart/Ice Cube sequel stands at $58 million and is unlikely to reach $100M – pretty disappointing considering the original just two years ago took in $134M.

A trio of newcomers all failed to make a splash and populated the 4-6 spots. All three opened a bit under my projections. The critically savaged Robert De Niro/Zac Efron comedy Dirty Grandpa placed fourth with $11.6 million (I said $14.6M).

Fifth place was British horror pic The Boy with a muted $10.7 million (my projection was $12.1M). Sixth place was YA adventure flick The 5th Wave with just $10.3 million (I said $11.4M). Look for all three to fade quickly.

And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: January 22-24

Three new titles open Friday to challenge Ride Along 2, The Revenant, and Star Wars at the box office: Robert De Niro/Zac Efron comedy Dirty Grandpa, British horror pic The Boy, and YA thriller The 5th Wave. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/01/14/dirty-grandpa-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/01/15/the-boy-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/01/14/the-5th-wave-box-office-prediction/

Any one of these newbies (especially Grandpa or The Boy in my view) could over perform, but as predicted I have this trio all debuting in the $11-$14 million range. I am also speculating that current champ Ride Along 2 (which didn’t match the gross of its predecessor) is likely to dip over 50%. That should leave The Revenant (fresh off receiving the most Oscar nominations) in a position to get to #1 after two weeks in the runner up position and Star Wars in a position to potentially remain in third.

And with that, my top six predictions for the weekend:

  1. The Revenant

Predicted Gross: $19.6 million (representing a drop of 38%)

2. Ride Along 2

Predicted Gross: $16.8 million (representing a drop of 52%)

3. Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Predicted Gross: $15.9 million (representing a drop of 39%)

4. Dirty Grandpa

Predicted Gross: $14.6 million

5. The Boy

Predicted Gross: $12.1 million

6. The 5th Wave

Predicted Gross: $11.4 million

Box Office Results (January 15-17)

As expected, the return of Kevin Hart and Ice Cube in Ride Along 2 debuted atop the charts, finally knocking off Star Wars. Yet it didn’t earn quite as much as its predecessor did on the same weekend two years ago. The sequel posted $35.2 million, under my $45.5M prediction. Over the four day MLK day, it’s made $41M while the original made over $48M in 2014.

After a dozen Oscar nods, The Revenant held up remarkably well with $31.7 million, skyrocketing past my $21.4M estimate. Leo and the Bear clearly benefited immensely from the Academy buzz and its terrific total stands at $95M.

Star Wars finally fell closer to Earth after four weeks on top with $26.3 million (I said $23.9M) and its record setting total is at $858M.

13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi had a so-so start with $16.1 million for fourth place, well under my kind $29.3M projection. Its 4 day MLK haul: $19.2M. Not bad, but for a film that generated heavy publicity, it’s a bit underwhelming.

Daddy’s Home was fifth and I incorrectly had it outside the top five. It made $9.5 million and sits at $131M.

The animated Arctic tale Norm of the North was sixth, premiering with a weak $6.8 million compared to my $9.3 estimate. Its 4 day MLK take? $9.3 million (of course).

And that’ll do it for now, my friends! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: January 15-17

The four week reign of Star Wars: The Force Awakens is likely to end this MLK weekend at three new entries join the box office fray: Kevin Hart/Ice Cube action comedy sequel Ride Along 2, Michael Bay’s true life military pic 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi, and Arctic animated kid flick Norm of the North. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/01/07/ride-along-2-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/01/07/13-hours-the-secret-soldiers-of-benghazi-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/01/07/norm-of-the-north-box-office-prediction/

As I see it, Ride Along 2 shouldn’t have much trouble topping the charts and I’m projecting that 13 Hours will finish strong in the runner-up spot. That would push Star Wars and Golden Globe favorite The Revenant to third and fourth, unless Norm earns more than my estimate. Otherwise, I have it rounding out the top five.

And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:

  1. Ride Along 2

Predicted Gross: $45.5 million

2. 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi

Predicted Gross: $29.3 million

3. Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Predicted Gross: $23.9 million (representing a drop of 43%)

4. The Revenant

Predicted Gross: $21.4 million (representing a drop of 46%)

5. Norm of the North

Predicted Gross: $9.3 million

Box Office Results (January 8-10)

In what was a closer than expected battle for #1, Star Wars: The Force Awakens held for the fourth week in a row with $42.3 million (below my $51.6M prediction). The juggernaut also became the highest grossing domestic earner of all time and its total stands at $812M.

#2 belong to freshly minted Golden Globe winner The Revenant, which expanded nationwide to a terrific $39.8 million, bearing past my $33.2M estimate. The Leonardo DiCaprio wilderness tale exceeded expectations and with its likely Oscar nominations coming Thursday, it should be in for a solid run ahead.

Daddy’s Home was third with $15 million (a bit shy of my $16.8M projection) for a three week haul of $116M. The critically panned horror pic The Forest actually did pretty well in fourth with a $12.7 million debut (I said $8.7M). Look for it fade quickly, however.

I incorrectly had The Hateful Eight in fourth with $10.5 million, but it fell a troubling 59% to sixth place in its sophomore weekend with $6.4 million for a lackluster total of $41M. That allowed Sisters with Tina Fey and Amy Poehler to keep chugging along in fifth with $7.1 million for a $73M total.

And that’ll do it for now, my friends! Until next time…

**OK, one last thing. This blog is about movies as you know, with an occasional dip into the world of music. As movies continue to inspire me everyday, so have legions of musicians that I’ve had the pleasure of listening to all these years. As a young child, I’ll never forget wearing out the record (yes, record) of “Let’s Dance” by one David Bowie (and there was truly only one David Bowie). As I got older, I came to truly appreciate and adore his entire catalog. What a brilliant artist he was. May he rest among the stars.

 

Box Office Predictions: January 1-3

2016 should come in just as 2015 went out with Star Wars: The Force Awakens continuing its historic record breaking run all over the globe. As I see it, I look for its third weekend to hover right around the $100M mark as it blasts forward with becoming the highest grossing domestic earner of all time.

The big opening this weekend is Quentin Tarantino’s The Hateful Eight, which debuted in limited release to scorching results. I look for it to come close to $30M over the three day weekend and reach mid 30s for its five day haul (it premieres wide on Wednesday), which should be enough to edge out the second weekend of Daddy’s Home. You can read my detailed prediction post on it here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/12/22/the-hateful-eight-box-office-prediction/

There are a host of Christmas holdovers in their second and third frames which should dominate the rest of the Top Ten (without November’s Hunger Games likely rounding out the list). The New Year’s weekend usually sees Christmas products experiencing smallish declines and this year should be no different. Point Break is likely to see the heftiest fall while I anticipate good holds for Joy, Concussion, and The Big Short.

And with that, my top ten predictions for the weekend:

  1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Predicted Gross: $98.7 million (representing a drop of 33%)

2. The Hateful Eight

Predicted Gross: $29.2 million

3. Daddy’s Home

Predicted Gross: $25.9 million (representing a drop of 33%)

4. Joy

Predicted Gross: $10.7 million (representing a drop of 37%)

5. Sisters

Predicted Gross: $9.2 million (representing a drop of 35%)

6. Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip

Predicted Gross: $9.1 million (representing a drop of 30%)

7. Concussion 

Predicted Gross: $8.6 million (representing a drop of 22%)

8. The Big Short

Predicted Gross: $7.8 million (representing a drop of 26%)

9. Point Break 

Predicted Gross: $5.4 million (representing a drop of 47%)

10. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2

Predicted Gross: $3.6 million (representing a drop of 30%)

Box Office Results (December 25-27)

The Christmas holiday produced great results (and mediocre ones) for some newbies while Star Wars: The Force Awakens continued its domination and became the fastest pic to gross a billion dollars worldwide. Awakens took in $149.2 million, in line with my $151.6M estimate for a ten day domestic total of $540M. It looks to extend its #1 streak next weekend and beyond.

While the billion $ Star Wars action deservedly got the most press, the other big story of the weekend is the terrific performance of the Will Ferrell/Mark Wahlberg comedy Daddy’s Home. Despite lackluster reviews, Home scored with $38.7 million, more than doubling my meager $16.5M prediction.

Jennifer Lawrence and her go to director David O. Russell scored a decent opening with Joy. It placed third with $17 million, above my $14.9M projection. The comedic drama, which got mixed reviews, is highly unlikely to reach the grosses of the star and director’s previous outings, Silver Linings Playbook and American Hustle.

The Tina Fey/Amy Poehler comedy Sisters actually increased its gross during its sophomore weekend with $14.1 million for fourth, ahead of my $10.4M projection for a nice total of $37M. The other flick in its second weekend, Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip placed fifth with $13.1 million, not matching my $16.7M estimate. It’s earned an OK $39M and looks to come in well below its three predecessors in the animated rodent franchise.

Will Smith experienced the worst wide opening of his career with the NFL themed Concussion at $11 million for sixth place, under my $13.8M projection. However, an A Cinemascore grade could portend low declines in coming weekends.

Adam McKay’s critically acclaimed Oscar hopeful The Big Short got off to a robust start at seventh place in wide release with $10.5 million over the three day weekend and $14.5 million since its Wednesday roll out (outshining my projections of $8.1M and $10.6M, respectively).

In eighth, action remake Point Break posted the lowest of the newbies with just $10.2 million, a bit under my $11M prediction. Look for it to fade fast.

Ninth place belonged to the sixth weekend of The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2 with $5.2 million (under my $6.5M estimate) for a total of $264M.

I didn’t post a prediction for the limited release of The Hateful Eight, but it managed to crack the top ten with $4.6 million for an explosive per screen average of $46K on just 100 screens. That bodes well for its wide release on Wednesday.

The emergence of Tarantino’s latest pushed Creed and The Good Dinosaur to 11th and 12th place showings. Creed took in $4.6 million (I said $5.8M) for earnings of $96M. Pixar’s The Good Dinosaur made $3.7 million (I predicted $4.9M) for a total of just $105M. To put that in perspective, Dinosaur has made just $105M at press time. The current lowest overall grosser of Pixar’s 16 offerings is 1998’s A Bug’s Life at $162M at that was 17 years ago when ticket prices were considerably less. Dinosaur will be lucky to reach $120M. Ouch.

And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time and next year with brand spanking new 2016 box office predictions…

Box Office Predictions: December 25-27

This year, Christmas falls on a Friday and there are five new presents to potentially unwrap at the theater: Will Ferrell/Mark Wahlberg comedy Daddy’s Home, David O. Russell/Jennifer Lawrence collaboration Joy, Oscar hopeful The Big Short with Steve Carell, Christian Bale, Ryan Gosling, and Brad Pitt, action remake Point Break, and Will Smith NFL centered drama Concussion. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/12/15/daddys-home-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/12/15/concussion-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/12/15/joy-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/12/15/point-break-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/12/16/the-big-short-box-office-prediction/

As I see it, all five are likely to gross somewhere from the high single digits to mid to high teens. I have Daddy’s Home managing to come in first among the newbies, but it could be a close competition for sure.

As for holdovers, both Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip and Sisters will be entering their sophomore frames after sturdy debuts (especially considering the competition). The Christmas weekend usually means that holdovers often increase their gross from the previous weekend and I believe this will hold true for Alvin (and Hunger Games and The Good Dinosaur and Creed for that matter). Sisters should experience a fairly small decline.

And that, of course, brings us to Star Wars: The Force Awakens, which will be entering weekend #2 after its historic opening (more on that below). Audiences and critics have taken to it and it has quickly become a cultural phenomenon. Its next record could be highest second weekend total of all time and in order to do so, it would need to top the six month long record of Jurassic World‘s $106.6 million. As I see it, Force shouldn’t have much of a problem accomplishing that feat and I envision a drop of around 40% for the holiday weekend.

And with that, I’ll expand beyond my usual number and do a Top 11 predictions for an extraordinarily packed Christmas weekend:

  1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Predicted Gross: $151.6 million (representing a drop of 38%)

2. Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip

Predicted Gross: $16.7 million (representing an increase of 17%)

3. Daddy’s Home

Predicted Gross: $16.5 million

4. Joy

Predicted Gross: $14.9 million

5. Concussion

Predicted Gross: $13.8 million

6. Point Break

Predicted Gross: $11 million

7. Sisters

Predicted Gross: $10.4 million (representing a drop of 25%)

8. The Big Short

Predicted Gross: $8.1 million (Friday to Sunday prediction), $10.6 million (Wednesday to Sunday prediction)

9. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2

Predicted Gross: $6.5 million (representing an increase of 11%)

10. Creed

Predicted Gross: $5.8 million (representing an increase of 14%)

11. The Good Dinosaur

Predicted Gross: $4.9 million (representing an increase of 14%)

Box Office Results (December 18-20)

Slip in any cliche you like. The Force was with it. It moved at warp speed past the record. Star Wars: The Force Awakens easily set the high for largest domestic opening of all time with an otherworldly $247.9 million, topping my projection of $234.7M. This blasted past the record of Jurassic World, which made $208.8M this summer by nearly $40M. With universal acclaim, Awakens has given Disney a mega franchise to work with for years and crowds were clearly clamoring for a return to that galaxy far, far away.

Two titles dared to open against this juggernaut and both fared decently. Alvin and the Chipmunks took the runner-up spot with $14.2 million, right on par with my $14.3M estimate. While this fourth entry in the series easily had the smallest debut of the bunch, it’s still not bad considering it was up against Luke and company. I’m predicting it’ll see a bounce and stay #2 next weekend.

The Tina Fey/Amy Poehler comedy Sisters was third with $13.9 million for a commendable beginning. My prediction? $13.9M… boom!

Holdovers fell a bit further than my predictions. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2 fell to fourth after four weeks at #1 with $5.8 million (I said $7M). Its total stands at $254M.

Creed rounded out the top five with $5 million compared to my $6.3M estimate for an overall gross of $87M.

Pixar disappointment The Good Dinosaur was sixth with $4.3 million, under my $6.8M projection. It has yet to reach $100M after 4 weeks at $96M.

I incorrectly had Krampus outside my top seven and it took that number with $4.1 million for a tidy gross of $35M. That’s because I had the Ron Howard/Chris Hemsworth dud In the Heart of the Sea in seventh. It plummeted to 8th in weekend #2 with a gross of just $3.4 million (compared to my $5.6M estimate) and ten days earnings of just $18M. Ouch.

And that’ll do it for now, ladies and gents! Be sure to check back next week for all the Merry results…

 

 

Box Office Predictions: December 18-20

It’s a weekend that box office prognosticators like myself have been waiting for all year long! Yes, ladies and gentlemen, the fourth Alvin and the Chipmunks film has arrived!!!

OK… in all seriousness, you may have heard of the big picture arriving this weekend called Star Wars: The Force Awakens. The seventh episode of the beloved franchise has been breathlessly awaited and it stands a shot at breaking pretty much every box office record there is. I truly feel it could gross anywhere from $170-$275 million out of the gate so I basically split the difference. That means my prediction does have it devouring the all time opening weekend record posted by Jurassic World this summer. It is worth noting that other estimators are saying this will come under what Jurassic accomplished, but we shall see. You can read my detailed prediction post on it here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/12/08/star-wars-the-force-awakens-box-office-prediction/

Somewhat surprisingly, other studios are premiering new product in hopes of serving as counter programming to The Force. We have the aforementioned Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip and Tina Fey/Amy Poehler comedy Sisters. I look for them to have fairly soft openings and have a close competition for second place. On the bright side, both titles could continue to play well and experience small declines into further holiday weekends. My prediction posts on both of them can be found here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/12/10/sisters-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/12/10/alvin-and-the-chipmunks-the-road-chip-box-office-prediction/

As for holdovers, The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2 will finally fall from its four week perch atop the charts. In the Heart of the Sea got off to a lackluster start (more on that below) and I actually expect it to drop farther percentage wise than The Good Dinosaur and Creed.

And with that, my top seven predictions for what could be a historic weekend:

  1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Predicted Gross: $234.7 million

2. Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip

Predicted Gross: $14.3 million

3. Sisters

Predicted Gross: $13.9 million

4. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2

Predicted Gross: $7 million (representing a drop of 38%)

5. The Good Dinosaur

Predicted Gross: $6.8 million (representing a drop of 36%)

6. Creed

Predicted Gross: $6.3 million (representing a drop of 37%)

7. In the Heart of the Sea

Predicted Gross: $5.6 million (representing a drop of 49%)

Box Office Results: December 11-13

Ron Howard’s $100 million whale tale In the Heart of the Sea with Chris Hemsworth was crushed by a wave of audience ambivalence with a gross of just $11 million, well under my $18.4M estimate. The pic, which received mixed reviews, simply didn’t capture the attention of adventure fans who may be biding their time until this weekend.

That allowed The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2 to stay #1 for the fourth weekend in a row with $11.3 million, just topping my $10.5M projection. The franchise finale has taken in $244 million.

Pixar’s disappointing The Good Dinosaur was third with $10.5 million, ahead of my $9.4M prediction for a total of $89 million. This is well below the standards of what its studio is accustomed to and it remains on track to be Pixar’s smallest earner. On the bright side for parent company Disney, they’ve got a pretty high profile release out this weekend…

Creed took fourth with $10.1 million, a bit higher than my $9.1M estimate for an overall tally of $79 million. This looks to be the first Rocky flick to top $100M since Rocky IV some thirty years ago.

Krampus was fifth in its second weekend with $8.4 million, topping my $7.3M projection. Its taken in a tidy $28 million at press time and is performing solidly for a relatively low budget horror comedy.

And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time… May The Force Be With You…

Box Office Predictions: December 11-13

Call it the call before an intergalactic storm as the second week of December brings just one new entry: Ron Howard’s In the Heart of the Sea with Chris Hemsworth. The film has picked up decent reviews (65% on Rotten Tomatoes) yet it seems to be flying a bit under the radar and it posted disappointing results in its overseas debut over the weekend. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/12/03/in-the-heart-of-the-sea-box-office-prediction/

Even with my predicted mediocre opening for Sea, it shouldn’t have much trouble premiering at #1 as the rest of the top five should consist of holdovers The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2, Krampus, Creed, and The Good Dinosaur. Comedic holiday horror fest Krampus had a better than anticipated opening (more on that below), but it should suffer the largest drop-off as that genre usually does.

All in all, it should be a pretty quiet weekend before the box office juggernaut Star Wars: The Force Awakens looks to demolish records the following week. And I’ll have my individual prediction post on that pic up later this week!

With that, my top five predictions for the weekend:

  1. In the Heart of the Sea

Predicted Gross: $18.4 million

2. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2

Predicted Gross: $10.5 million (representing a drop of 44%)

3. The Good Dinosaur

Predicted Gross: $9.4 million (representing a drop of 39%)

4. Creed

Predicted Gross: $9.1 million (representing a drop of 39%)

5. Krampus

Predicted Gross: $7.3 million (representing a drop of 54%)

Box Office Results (December 4-6)

As expected, it was a quiet post Thanksgiving weekend at the box office as The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1 managed to stay on top for the third weekend in a row. The bright spot was Krampus, which exceeded the expectations of prognosticators by a nice margin.

Katniss and company ruled the charts with $18.8 million, right in line with my $18.5M estimate and the final chapter in the franchise has taken in $227M.

Krampus soared past my $7.1 million projection to earn $16.2 million for a solid runner-up showing. The mostly well reviewed horror comedy, as mentioned, surpassed nearly all estimates.

Disney/Pixar’s The Good Dinosaur continued to show disappointing results with $15.3 million in weekend #2, below my $18.7M prediction. It stands at $75 million at press time and is in very real danger of being Pixar’s lowest domestic grosser of all time.

The critically hailed Creed made $14.9 million in its sophomore frame, a bit below my $16.4M estimate for an overall haul of $64M. A gross of over $100M seems within reach.

Finally, Spectre rounded out the top five with $5.5 million, in range with my $6M projection for a total of $184M.

And that’s all for now, folks! Until next time…