Tag: Box Office Results

Box Office Predictions: May 20-22

The third weekend of summer 2016 brings some intrigue into the season as the Seth Rogen/Zac Efron raunchy sequel Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising, app based animated tale The Angry Birds Movie, and Russell Crowe/Ryan Gosling action comedy The Nice Guys all debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each one of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/05/11/neighbors-2-sorority-rising-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/05/11/the-angry-birds-movie-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/05/11/the-nice-guys-box-office-prediction/

All three titles have question marks. All three titles could over perform or under perform. And as I see it, it could create a genuine three-way race for the top spot between Neighbors, Birds, and current two-week champion Captain America: Civil War.

Meanwhile, The Nice Guys has been the beneficiary of solid reviews and a robust marketing campaign and it could certainly rise above the mid-teens gross I have it pegged at. Having said that, it’s difficult to see it moving into the top 3. The Jungle Book should round out the top five.

The closeness of that top 3 reflects my belief that there will only be about a $4 million difference between those pictures, with Neighbors being the victor, Captain America and his avengers friends and foes in second, and those Birds taking third. We shall see how it all shakes out in this highly unpredictable frame which will get even more interesting when potential heavy hitters X-Men: Apocalypse and Alice Through the Looking Glass arrive Memorial Day weekend.

And with that, my top 5 predictions for this weekend:

  1. Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising

Predicted Gross: $38.2 million

2. Captain America: Civil War

Predicted Gross: $35.1 million (representing a drop of 51%)

3. The Angry Birds Movie

Predicted Gross: $34.5 million

4. The Nice Guys

Predicted Gross: $14.4 million

5. The Jungle Book

Predicted Gross: $10.9 million (representing a drop of 36%)

Box Office Results (May 13-15)

Captain America: The Winter Soldier easily remained #1 (as expected) for the second weekend in a row as it grossed $72.6 million, just under my $76.8M estimate. The Marvel tale has amassed $295M in ten days. It will come in under the number of the two Avengers entries but has already become the highest grossing Cap flick as The Winter Soldier topped out at $259M domestic.

Disney held the runner-up position again as The Jungle Book swung another $17.1 million (in range with my $18.6M prediction) for a five-week total of $311M.

The George Clooney/Julia Roberts thriller Money Monster debuted in third with $14.7 million, managing to come in at the top end of its expectations and managing to top my $12.7M prediction. While it will almost surely drop out of the top five this weekend, look for it to have fairly smallish declines and maybe reach an eventual gross of $50-$60M.

Opening lightly in fourth place was the Kevin Bacon horror flick The Darkness with $4.9 million, just under my $5.6M prognosis. Look for the low-budget Blumhouse offering to be VOD ready soon.

Mother’s Day plummeted in weekend #3 since it didn’t have that whole actual Mother’s Day holiday working this time around. The rom com earned $3.2 million (below my $4.7M forecast) for a total of $28M.

And that’s all for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: May 13-15

The second weekend of summer should bring further domination from Captain America and his Marvel friends and foes as Civil War will easily reign supreme in weekend #2. There are two new entries: Jodie Foster’s thriller Money Monster starring George Clooney and Julia Roberts and the Blumhouse horror flick The Darkness. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts of each of them right here:

Money Monster Box Office Prediction

The Darkness Box Office Prediction

As I see it, Money Monster will likely settle for a third place showing with Mother’s Day and The Darkness fighting it out for the four spot.

Civil War had an impressive opening that still came in below many prognosticators (including this one) were saying… more on that below. These Disney/Marvel ventures typically drop in the mid-high 50s and I expect the same here (the first Avengers pic, it’s worth noting, dropped just 50%).

As for The Jungle Book, I expect a fairly small decline for it (as is typical with many pictures in the second weekend of May) and it should have no problem staying in the runner-up position.

And with that, my top 5 predictions for the weekend:

  1. Captain America: Civil War

Predicted Gross: $76.8 million (representing a drop of 57%)

2. The Jungle Book

Predicted Gross: $18.6 million (representing a drop of 24%)

3. Money Monster

Predicted Gross: $12.7 million

4. The Darkness

Predicted Gross: $5.6 million

5. Mother’s Day

Predicted Gross: $4.7 million (representing a drop of 58%)

Box Office Results (May 6-8)

Summer 2016 started off as so many others have in recent years with Marvel ruling the charts as Captain America: Civil War took in $179.1 million. That’s good for the fifth largest domestic opening of all time, nestled between other MCU entries Avengers: Age of Ultron and Iron Man 3. The debut is just fine, but also on the lower end of its expectations (I put it at $205.6M).

The Jungle Book fell to second after three weeks on top with $24.4 million, in line with my $23.5M projection for a total of $287M.

Perhaps the story of the weekend was Mother’s Day, which jumped 32% in its second weekend to $11 million (more than doubling my meager $5.1M prediction). Lesson to be learned: a movie called Mother’s Day (no matter how bad its reviews may be) is going to do well on Mother’s Day. Its two-week total is $22M and I would expect a pretty big dip next weekend.

The Huntsman Winter’s War was fourth with $3.9 million (I said $4.5M) for a weak $40M haul while Keanu rounded out the top five with $3.2 million (I went higher with $4.9M). Keanu‘s total is just $15M. Zootopia was sixth – also with $3.2 million and under my $4.8M prognosis for a $328M tally.

And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: May 6-8

Disney and Marvel once again stake claim to the first weekend of May’s box office spot as they have for six of the last eight years when Captain America: Civil War invades theaters this weekend. It is the first summer movie of the year and it stands an excellent chance at being the biggest of them all. You can read my detailed prediction post on it right here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/04/27/captain-america-civil-war-box-office-prediction/

My $205.6 million opening weekend prediction puts it at #4 all-time, just below 2012’s The Avengers at $207M and above last year’s Avengers: Age of Ultron, which bowed to $191M. The company it finds itself in between is appropriate as Civil War is essentially a third Avengers pic, with Iron Man, Black Widow, Ant-Man, Spider-Man, and more joining Chris Evans’ title character.

As for holdovers, Disney should have no trouble at the #2 position as The Jungle Book will slip there after three weeks on top. Keanu, The Huntsman Winter’s War, Zootopia and Mother’s Day should make up the rest in a tightly bunched formation that I have with all around  $5M.

And with that, my top six predictions for the weekend:

  1. Captain America: Civil War

Predicted Gross: $205.6 million

2. The Jungle Book

Predicted Gross: $23.5 million (representing a drop of 46%)

3. Mother’s Day

Predicted Gross: $5.1 million (representing a drop of 39%)

4. Keanu

Predicted Gross: $4.9 million (representing a drop of 48%)

5. Zootopia

Predicted Gross: $4.8 million (representing a drop of 14%)

6. The Huntsman Winter’s War

Predicted Gross: $4.5 million (representing a drop of 54%)

Box Office Results (April 29-May 1)’

As expected, Disney’s The Jungle Book slayed its competitors for a third weekend on top with $43.7 million (higher than my $37.9M estimate) for a grand total of $253M. The Mouse Factory’s mega-hit will finally be replaced by another Mouse Factory mega-hit this weekend.

And now for the non mega-hits. The Huntsman Winter’s Way remained in second with $9.6 million for a tepid total of $34M. It did manage to top my $8.1M projection.

Newbies did not fare well. Despite mostly positive reviews, Key and Peele’s comedy Keanu managed just $9.4 million in third, well below my generous $17.6M prediction.

The news was even worse for Mother’s Day (which got scathing reviews) which debuted in fourth with only $8.3 million (I said $14.7M).

Barbershop: The Next Cut rounded out with top five with $6 million – in line with my $6.2M estimate for a three-week take of $44M.

The video game inspired Ratchet & Clank disappointed in seventh with only $4.8 million, just under my $5.2M prediction. That meant Disney’s Zootopia (in weekend #8) was sixth with $5.3 million ($323M total) and I incorrectly had it outside the top six.

And that’ll for now, ladies and gentlemen! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: April 29-May 1

Three new entries populate the box office this weekend as the Key and Peele comedy Keanu, Jennifer Aniston/Julia Roberts dramedy Mother’s Day, and video game based animated pic Ratchet & Clank open. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/04/22/keanu-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/04/22/mothers-day-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/04/23/ratchet-clank-box-office-prediction/

None of them are likely to knock Disney’s The Jungle Book off its perch at #1, which will be the third weekend on top for Mowgli and friends.

Keanu and Mother’s Day should nab the #2 and #3 positions. I have The Huntsman Winter’s War dropping to fourth and it should have a pretty hefty decline after its disappointing opening (more on that below).

I’m not expecting much out of Ratchet & Clank and have it fighting for fifth with the third weekend of Barbershop: The Next Cut and slightly losing that battle.

And with that, a top 6 predictions for the weekend:

  1. The Jungle Book

Predicted Gross: $37.9 million (representing a drop of 38%)

2. Keanu

Predicted Gross: $17.6 million

3. Mother’s Day

Predicted Gross: $14.7 million

4. The Huntsman Winter’s War

Predicted Gross: $8.1 million (representing a drop of 58%)

5. Barbershop: The Next Cut

Predicted Gross: $6.2 million (representing a drop of 41%)

6. Ratchet & Clank

Predicted Gross: $5.2 million

Box Office Results (April 22-24)

Disney’s The Jungle Book kept swinging along in its sophomore frame with $61.5 million, just above my $59M projection for a two-week tally of $192M. As mentioned, it should easily retain its #1 status next weekend before another Mouse Factory entry – Captain America: Civil War – does its thing in a few days.

The weekend’s major newcomer was also quite a high-profile flop. The Huntsman Winter’s War, the sort of prequel/sequel to 2012’s hit Snow White and the Huntsman, earned just $19.4 million (lower than my $26.3M estimate). With a reported $115 million budget, War couldn’t overcome toxic reviews and the absence of Kristen Stewart (aka Snow White). The pic may struggle to even reach the $56 million that Snow White made in its opening weekend. Ouch.

Barbershop: The Next Cut was third in its second weekend with $10.5 million, in line with my $11.2M prediction for a total of $35M.

Zootopia was fourth with $6.5 million, higher than my estimate of $5M for a $316M total.

Melissa McCarthy’s The Boss rounded out the top five with $6.2 million, ahead of my $4.9M projection for a three-week take of $49M (pretty low for one of her comedies).

And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: April 22-24

Disney should have another fantastic weekend on top of the charts with The Jungle Book, which far exceeded expectations this past weekend for a swinging debut (more on that below).

That means this weekend’s major newcomer The Huntsman Winter’s War could be in for a rough road. You can find my detailed prediction on it here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/04/14/the-huntsman-winters-war-box-office-prediction/

As I see it, the sort of prequel/sort of sequel to 2012’s Snow White and the Huntsman will come in with under half of the $56 million made by its predecessor. That’ll put it firmly in second, but below expectations and far below Mowgli and company.

As for holdovers, I look for Barbershop: The Next Cut to lose not quite half its audience with Zootopia and The Boss rounding out the top five.

There is one other newcomer this week – Elvis & Nixon with Michael Shannon and Kevin Spacey recreating the true life tale of The King visiting the 37th POTUS at the White House. There is yet to be a screen count for it, which makes predicting tough. Here’s my quick take: the film seems like an obvious choice for a Netflix or HBO premiere and not theatrical. I’ll say it makes $1.3 million.

And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:

  1. The Jungle Book

Predicted Gross: $59 million (representing a drop of 43%)

2. The Huntsman Winter’s War

Predicted Gross: $26.3 million

3. Barbershop: The Next Cut

Predicted Gross: $11.2 million (representing a drop of 45%)

4. Zootopia

Predicted Gross: $5 million (representing a drop of 40%)

5. The Boss

Predicted Gross: $4.9 million (representing a drop of 50%)

Box Office Results (April 15-17)

It was a joyous week for Disney as Jon Favreau’s well-reviewed live-action remake of The Jungle Book took in an astonishing $103.2 million, way beyond my $74.6M projection. Just weeks after the studio made a killing with their animated animals of Zootopia, Mowgli and the CG animals here have given the Mouse Factory another smash. A sequel is already in development and it’s less than three weeks before their next blockbuster – Captain America: Civil War.

Barbershop: The Next Cut premiered in the runner-up spot with $20.2 million, under my $23.1M estimate. The Ice Cube three-quel came 12 years after the second installment and marked the lowest debut of the franchise (just barely below the $20.6M achieved by the original).

Melissa McCarthy’s The Boss dropped hard to third with $9.9 million compared to my $13.5M prognosis. Its two-week total is $4oM.

Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice also under performed my estimate with $9 million (I said $11.1M) for a total gross of $311M.

The aforementioned Zootopia was fifth with $8.1 million for a $307M total and I incorrectly had it outside my top five.

That’s because I gave too much credit to the Kevin Costner/Ryan Reynolds thriller Criminal, which tanked in sixth with $5.7 million. I said $9.3M.

And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: April 15-17

Disney should dominate the upcoming weekend as its live-action remake of The Jungle Book swings into theaters. It’s not the only new game in town though as Barbershop: The Next Cut and Kevin Costner/Ryan Reynolds action thriller Criminal also debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/04/06/the-jungle-book-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/04/06/barbershop-the-next-cut-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/04/06/criminal-box-office-prediction/

I have The Jungle Book outpacing the Mouse Factory’s terrific debuts for Maleficent and Cinderella. Word of mouth and reviews are both solid and my prediction puts it just under what Zootopia earned out of the gate in March.

My prognosis is also bright for Barbershop, the third entry in a franchise that’s been dormant for over a decade. As for Criminal, I have it coming in slightly under what Costner’s 3 Days to Kill accomplished two years ago. It’s worth saying that estimate for it is a bit above others that have it coming in with less than $10M.

Current champ The Boss may fall in the low to mid 40s while Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice should continue its streak of 50% plus dips in its fourth weekend. And with that, my predictions for this weekend’s top five:

  1. The Jungle Book

Predicted Gross: $74.6 million

2. Barbershop: The Next Cut

Predicted Gross: $23.1 million

3. The Boss

Predicted Gross: $13.5 million (representing a drop of 42%)

4. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice

Predicted Gross: $11.1 million (representing a drop of 52%)

5. Criminal

Predicted Gross: $9.3 million

Box Office Results (April 8-10)

I predicted a tight race for the top spot between Melissa McCarthy’s The Boss and Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice in weekend #3. It was even closer than I thought it would be as The Boss opened in first with $23.4 million. My prediction? $23.5M! Talk about being a boss, eh? Hey, this doesn’t happen too often, so I’ll enjoy it while I can.

That means BvS slipped to second place with $23.3 million, a tad below my $24.5M prognosis. Warner Bros superhero mashup stands at $296M after three weeks.

Disney’s Zootopia was third with $14.3 million – in line with my $14.9M estimate for a total of $296M as well.

My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 was fourth in weekend #3 with $6.4 million, a bit under my $7.3M prediction for a $4.6M total.

Finally – landing with a major thud in fifth place was the debut of first person action flick Hardcore Henry with just $5.1 million compared to my $7.8M projection. And I was on the lower end of estimates!

And that’ll do it for now, friends! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: April 8-10

Melissa McCarthy’s latest comedy The Boss will look to demote Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice to the runner-up spot when it opens this weekend. Additionally, the video game like action pic Hardcore Henry debuts. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each of the newbies here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/03/31/the-boss-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/03/31/hardcore-henry-box-office-prediction/

I have The Boss opening a bit under what some recent McCarthy pictures have accomplished over the last three years. Still, considering the hefty sophomore decline that BvS experienced this past weekend (more on that below), it could create a photo finish for the top spot. My estimates have the Caped Crusader and Man of Steel slightly ahead for a narrow three-peat, as I see it dipping just over 50% in weekend 3.

As for the rest of the top five, Zootopia should easily manage a third place showing, as long as Hardcore Henry doesn’t rather significantly exceed expectations. I actually have Henry in a tight battle with My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 for the four spot and have it a bit ahead.

And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:

  1. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice

Predicted Gross: $24.5 million (representing a drop of 52%)

2. The Boss

Predicted Gross: $23.4 million

3. Zootopia

Predicted Gross: $14.9 million (representing a drop of 23%)

4. Hardcore Henry

Predicted Gross: $7.8 million

5. My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2

Predicted Gross: $7.3 million (representing a drop of 35%)

Box Office Results (April 1-3)

All eyes were on the second weekend of Batman v Justice: Dawn of Justice, which had a terrific opening but was subjected to so-so audience word of mouth and many harsh reviews. The drop was even more significant than most prognosticated as it fell a steep 69% to $51.3 million (below my $59.1M prediction). The Warner Bros. tent pole has taken in $260 million in 10 days and while those numbers are nothing to sneeze at, the studio has to be at least a little concerned with a fall that massive.

Zootopia easily held the #2 spot with $19.3 million in its fifth weekend, zooming past my $14.9M estimate. The Disney animated smash has earned $275M so far.

In third was My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 with $11.2 million in its second weekend (I went a little under with $9.4M) for a $36M total. While it won’t even reach a third of its predecessor’s $241M domestic haul from 14 years ago, it’s still doing respectable business.

Faith based sequel God’s Not Dead 2 couldn’t match the opening of its predecessor two years ago. It made $7.6 million (I predicted $9.6M), which is under the $9.2M achieved by the original (which only debuted on half the number of screens).

Another Christian themed feature, Miracles from Heaven, rounded out the top five with $7.2 million, ahead of my $5.7M prognosis for a three-week gross of $46M.

Finally, the weekend’s other debut – the Mike Epps Purge spoof Meet the Blacks – exceeded most expectations in 8th place with $4 million, just ahead of my $3.7M projection.

And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…

 

Box Office Predictions: April 1-3

After a record-breaking Easter weekend for two iconic superheroes, the first weekend of April brings a slowdown as only two non major studio pics debut. They are faith-based sequel God’s Not Dead 2 and Mike Epps’ Purge parody Meet the Blacks. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/03/24/gods-not-dead-2-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/03/28/meet-the-blacks-box-office-prediction/

Let’s get the newbies out of the way first. I look for God’s Not Dead 2 to open within the same range as its predecessor two years ago. That should leave it in a close battle with the second weekend of My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2, which I have falling by almost half.

As for Meet the Blacks, it’s only opening on about 1000 screens and I believe it will be lucky to reach $5 million. My $3.7 million estimate for it leaves it outside the top five.

Zootopia should continue its smallish declines and retain the #2 position. Miracles from Heaven should round out the top five, as long as Blacks doesn’t exceed my estimate.

That leaves the biggest question of the week: how much will Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice drop in its sophomore weekend? Down below, you can read all about its record-setting debut. Critics have not been kind and its B Cinemascore grade indicates that even audiences aren’t exactly loving it. Here’s how some other tent poles dipped in their second weekends (all of these titles made between $147-$191M out of the gate):

Avengers: Age of Ultron – 59%

Iron Man 3 – 58%

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2 – 72%

The Dark Knight Rises – 61%

Spider-Man 3 – 61%

Furious 7 – 59%

Then there’s 2013’s Man of Steel, which serves as Justice‘s predecessor. It didn’t have the greatest buzz either and dropped 64% after a $116 million debut.

So where does that leave us? I actually believe BvS is going to fall right around with where Man of Steel did (63-65 percent).

And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:

  1. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice

Predicted Gross: $59.1 million (representing a drop of 64%)

2. Zootopia

Predicted Gross: $14.9 million (representing a drop of 38%)

3. God’s Not Dead 2

Predicted Gross: $9.6 million

4. My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 

Predicted Gross: $9.4 million (representing a drop of 47%)

5. Miracles from Heaven

Predicted Gross: $5.7 million (representing a drop of 41%)

Box Office Results (March 25-27)

Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice accomplished having the seventh largest opening of all time and kick starting Warner Bros. Justice League features and intended spin-offs to the tune of a $166 million debut. My prognosis? $166.4M! Pretty happy with this one. While critics were mostly not kind (a 29% Rotten Tomatoes score), audience anticipation was clearly peaked. It just missed being its studio’s biggest opener (the final Harry Potter did $169M), but it did set the record for the month of March and highest Easter performer. The big question, as mentioned above, is how far it falls in weekend #2 and I’m predicting it’ll be rather precipitous.

Zootopia took the runner-up spot with $24 million (in line with my $23.4M estimate) for a four-week tally of $241 million.

Opening in third and with higher than anticipated numbers was long gestating comedy sequel My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 with $17.8 million, above my $13.1M projection. This is a positive result considering reviews were poor and it had been 14 years since the mega hit original. This was never expected to approach the amazing $241M the first Wedding pocketed and it certainly won’t, but overall this is a fine result.

In a close battle for fourth among features in their second weekends, Miracles from Heaven edged out The Divergent Series: Allegiant. The faith-based Heaven capitalized on the Easter weekend with $9.6 million (a bit below my $10.9M estimate) for a total of $34M. Allegiant continued its plummet with $9.4 million (under my $12.7M projection) for an overall gross of $46M. It may top out at just around $65M – its two predecessors made $150M and $130M, respectively. Ouch.

And that’ll do it for now, friends! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: March 25-27

Two iconic superheroes look to set an all-time March opening weekend record as Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice debuts Friday, along with rom com sequel My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:

Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice Box Office Prediction

My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 Box Office Prediction

As outlined in the individual prediction on Dawn of Justice, it stands a real shot at becoming March’s biggest opener if it manages to get past the $152 million accomplished by The Hunger Games four years ago. I’m predicting that it will.

As for Greek Wedding 2, it’s the sequel to the highest earning romantic comedy in box office history. However, I believe the 14 year gap with this sequel could mean an opening in the low teens.

When it comes to holdovers, Zootopia should drop to second after 3 weeks on top while The Divergent Series: Allegiant looks to suffer a much heftier drop in its sophomore frame than Miracles from Heaven, which should capitalize on the Easter weekend. In fact, I see a genuine photo finish for the three spot between Wedding, Miracles, and Allegiant.

And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:

  1. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice

Predicted Gross: $166.4 million

2. Zootopia

Predicted Gross: $23.4 million

3. My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2

Predicted Gross: $13.1 million

4. The Divergent Series: Allegiant

Predicted Gross: $12.7 million

5. Miracles from Heaven

Predicted Gross: $10.9 million

Box Office Results (March 18-20)

Disney’s Zootopia made it three weeks in a row on top with $37.1 million, a bit higher than my $32M forecast. The smash hit animated pic has earned $200M thus far and reaching above $300M now looks to be a foregone conclusion.

The results were not so hot for The Divergent Series: Allegiant, which posted the lowest numbers by far of the franchise to date. While 2014’s Divergent premiered to $54 million and Insurgent made $52 million, Allegiant managed just $29 million compared to my $43.7M prediction. This doesn’t bode well for part two of Allegiant, out next summer.

The faith based drama Miracles from Heaven debuted in third with a sturdy $14.8 million (just under my $15.8M projection) and a five day total of $18.3 million since its Wednesday opening (I said $20.8M). As mentioned, look for this continue to perform solidly this coming Easter frame.

10 Clovefield Lane was fourth in its second weekend with $12.5 million (I said $10.1M) and its two week total is $45M. Deadpool rounded out the top five with $8 million (I was close with $7.2M) for a cume of $340M.

And that’ll do it for now, friends! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: March 18-20

Two new entries populate the multiplexes this weekend as third YA franchise entry The Divergent Series: Allegiant and faith based drama Miracles from Heaven debut. You can find my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/03/10/the-divergent-series-allegiant-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/03/10/miracles-from-heaven-box-office-prediction/

While I have Allegiant opening below its predecessors Divergent and Insurgent, it should still manage to end the two week dominance of Zootopia atop the charts. I have Miracles posting a solid third place showing and it could play well into Easter weekend in its sophomore frame if word of mouth is strong.

As for holdovers, Disney’s Zootopia should fall to the runner up position and keep its terrific returns coming. 10 Cloverfield Lane was a hit with the critics but only received a middling B- Cinemascore grade, so I look for its second week drop to be big. Deadpool should round out the top five.

And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:

  1. The Divergent Series: Allegiant

Predicted Gross: $43.7 million

2. Zootopia

Predicted Gross: $32 million (representing a drop of 37%)

3. Miracles from Heaven

Predicted Gross: $15.8 million (Friday to Sunday), $20.8 million (Wednesday to Sunday prediction)

4. 10 Cloverfield Lane

Predicted Gross: $10.1 million (representing a drop of 58%)

5. Deadpool

Predicted Gross: $7.2 million (representing a drop of 35%)

Box Office Results (March 11-13)

Zootopia continued to rule the box office kingdom this weekend with an even smaller than expected drop in weekend #2. The Disney animated tale, fresh off its record setting opening frame, grossed $51.3 million (outpacing my $41.6M estimate) for a $143M total.

10 Cloverfield Lane couldn’t come to close to matching its predecessor’s $40 million premiere in 2008, but managed a respectable $24.7 million (compared to my $28.3M prognosis). Considering its reported small budget, it should turn a nice profit.

London Has Fallen was third in its sophomore weekend with $10.8 million, just above my $9.9M prediction for a ten day total of $39M.

Fourth place was massive hit Deadpool with $10.8 million (a bit higher than my prediction of $9.4M) for a four week tally of $328M.

In fifth was the Tina Fey comedy Whiskey Tango Foxtrot with $4.6 million for a ten day total of $14M. I incorrectly had it outside my top 6 predictions.

That’s because I grossly overestimated two newcomers. There was one exception: rom com The Perfect Match was sixth with $4.2 million. I said $4.1M. At least I was close on that one…

As for The Young Messiah and The Brothers Grimsby… not so much. The faith based drama Messiah opened in seventh at just $3.2 million, way below my generous $12.7M estimate. As for Sacha Baron Cohen’s critically reviled Grimsby, it fared even slightly worse in 8th place with $3.2 million compared to my generous $11.4M estimate.

And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…