Box Office Predictions: January 15-17

The four week reign of Star Wars: The Force Awakens is likely to end this MLK weekend at three new entries join the box office fray: Kevin Hart/Ice Cube action comedy sequel Ride Along 2, Michael Bay’s true life military pic 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi, and Arctic animated kid flick Norm of the North. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

As I see it, Ride Along 2 shouldn’t have much trouble topping the charts and I’m projecting that 13 Hours will finish strong in the runner-up spot. That would push Star Wars and Golden Globe favorite The Revenant to third and fourth, unless Norm earns more than my estimate. Otherwise, I have it rounding out the top five.

And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:

  1. Ride Along 2

Predicted Gross: $45.5 million

2. 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi

Predicted Gross: $29.3 million

3. Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Predicted Gross: $23.9 million (representing a drop of 43%)

4. The Revenant

Predicted Gross: $21.4 million (representing a drop of 46%)

5. Norm of the North

Predicted Gross: $9.3 million

Box Office Results (January 8-10)

In what was a closer than expected battle for #1, Star Wars: The Force Awakens held for the fourth week in a row with $42.3 million (below my $51.6M prediction). The juggernaut also became the highest grossing domestic earner of all time and its total stands at $812M.

#2 belong to freshly minted Golden Globe winner The Revenant, which expanded nationwide to a terrific $39.8 million, bearing past my $33.2M estimate. The Leonardo DiCaprio wilderness tale exceeded expectations and with its likely Oscar nominations coming Thursday, it should be in for a solid run ahead.

Daddy’s Home was third with $15 million (a bit shy of my $16.8M projection) for a three week haul of $116M. The critically panned horror pic The Forest actually did pretty well in fourth with a $12.7 million debut (I said $8.7M). Look for it fade quickly, however.

I incorrectly had The Hateful Eight in fourth with $10.5 million, but it fell a troubling 59% to sixth place in its sophomore weekend with $6.4 million for a lackluster total of $41M. That allowed Sisters with Tina Fey and Amy Poehler to keep chugging along in fifth with $7.1 million for a $73M total.

And that’ll do it for now, my friends! Until next time…

**OK, one last thing. This blog is about movies as you know, with an occasional dip into the world of music. As movies continue to inspire me everyday, so have legions of musicians that I’ve had the pleasure of listening to all these years. As a young child, I’ll never forget wearing out the record (yes, record) of “Let’s Dance” by one David Bowie (and there was truly only one David Bowie). As I got older, I came to truly appreciate and adore his entire catalog. What a brilliant artist he was. May he rest among the stars.



One thought on “Box Office Predictions: January 15-17

  1. Yo Todd!

    Here are my numbers for this weekend’s new releases:
    Ride Along 2 – $47.7M
    13 Hours – $33M (this could potentially balloon to upwards of $50M, based on past performances of similar films of this genre)
    Norm of the North – $8.6M

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