Box Office Predictions: February 19-21

Three new entries hit theaters this weekend to compete with the box office bonanza that is Deadpool. They are: Biblical drama Risen, Jesse Owens biopic Race, and critically lauded horror flick The Witch. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/02/11/risen-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/02/11/race-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/02/11/the-witch-box-office-prediction

Not one of them has any realistic shot of overtaking Ryan Reynolds and his very R rated superhero as that pic left a pool of box office records in its wake over the long weekend (much more on that below).

Risen, which could bring in a faith based contigent, could well end up in the runner up position with Race battling both How to Be Single and Kung Fu Panda 3 for the three spot. I don’t look for The Witch to accomplish much, despite its solid reviews, and have it pegged for 6th place (in what could be a photo finish with Zoolander No. 2‘s sophomore weekend after its disappointing debut).

The second weekend of Deadpool could see it falling in the mid-high 50s percentage wise, which would be on par with other major comic book grossers. Still, I couldn’t have been more wrong with how big it was going to be (along with pretty much all other prognosticators), so who knows?

Nevertheless – we’ll do a top seven predictions for this weekend:

  1. Deadpool

Predicted Gross: $58.6 million (representing a drop of 55%)

2. Risen

Predicted Gross: $14.2 million

3. Kung Fu Panda 3

Predicted Gross: $10.8 million (representing a drop of 45%)

4. Race

Predicted Gross: $10.6 million

5. How to Be Single

Predicted Gross: $9.2 million (representing a drop of 48%)

6. The Witch

Predicted Gross: $6.7 million

7. Zoolander No. 2

Predicted Gross: $6.1 million (representing a drop of 56%)

Box Office Results (February 12-14)

It’s only February, but there’s no question that the opening weekend of Deadpool will be one of the box office stories of the year. The well-reviewed R rated superhero pic grossed an absolutely astonishing $132.4 million over the traditional weekend – embarassing my meager $58.2M projection. The film’s four day President’s Day haul: $152.1M. Sometimes movies turn into phenomenons and that’s the case here. Expect to see plenty of Ryan Reynolds in this role into the future as this had the largest February and largest R rated debut of all time. Additionally, it had the 17th highest domestic premiere of all time.

Kung Fu Panda 3 dropped to second with $19.7 million in week #3, holding up considerably better my than $14 million estimate. The toon’s total stands at $100M.

Rom com How to Be Single had a respectable debut in third place with $17.8 million (on target with my $18.7M prediction) and its four day is $19.9M. Not a bad start and this certainly can claim a small victory for opening higher than the Zoolander sequel.

Speaking of, the news was not so good for Ben Stiller and company as Zoolander No. 2 stumbled out of the runway with just $13.8 million, well below my $20.9M prediction. This was expected to open in second place and certainly not fourth. Poor reviews didn’t help and neither did a good portion of its intended audience watching that filthy superhero instead. Its holiday four day total: $15.8M.

Oscar hopeful The Revenant was fifth with $6.5 million and I incorrectly had it outside the top five. Its total is at $159M.

Sixth place belonged to Hail, Caesar! in its second weekend with $6.3 million, in line with my $5.6M projection. Its total gross is at an OK $22M.

And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…

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3 thoughts on “Box Office Predictions: February 19-21

  1. Yo Todd!

    Deadpool BLEW UP last weekend, my friend. I felt pretty bullish with my prediction and still fell ridiculously short. I’m glad though, it reinvigorates my trust in the public to see good movies.

    Here’s what I’ve got for this weekend:

    Risen – $9.9M
    Race – $9.5M
    The Witch – $6M – I saw The Witch tonight and although I enjoyed it, I wasn’t blown away.

    Where are the wonderful standings? 😉

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