Tag: Box Office Results

Box Office Predictions: September 8-10

The fall box office officially is underway this weekend and it can’t come soon enough after a truly lackluster end to the summer season. This season is looking to kick off in record breaking fashion with the release of Stephen King adapted horror pic It as well as the Reese Witherspoon rom com Home Again. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/08/29/it-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/08/30/home-again-box-office-prediction/

Riding a wave of solid buzz coupled with its eerie TV spots and trailers, It is shaping up to be an event film. My estimate easily makes it the highest September debut of all time and biggest horror opening in history.

Home Again should easily be #2 considering the extreme lack of competition, but the question is how effective it will be as counter programming for female audiences. I have it just under a teens debut as it hopes to leg out in subsequent weekends.

The rest of the top five will be filled with holdovers. The Hitman’s Bodyguard three week reign on top will be over. Last weekend’s #2 Annabelle: Creation may suffer the largest decline because of the It factor.

And with that, my top 5 predictions for the weekend:

1. It

Predicted Gross: $65.4 million

2. Home Again

Predicted Gross: $11.3 million

3. The Hitman’s Bodyguard

Predicted Gross: $5.4 million (representing a drop of 48%)

4. Wind River

Predicted Gross: $3.6 million (representing a drop of 43%)

5. Annabelle: Creation

Predicted Gross: $3.5 million (representing a drop of 54%)

Box Office Results (September 1-4)

As anticipated, the summer movie season closed with a whimper. That said, most of the holdovers help up better than my estimates while two newcomers couldn’t manage to find an audience. Even though my forecasts were low, this was still the weakest Labor Day frame in 17 years.

The Hitman’s Bodyguard placed first for the third weekend in a row with $13.2 million, managing to easily surpass my $8.9M projection. It ends its run in first place with $57 million total.

Annballe: Creation was second with $9.1 million – topping my meager $5.7M estimate for a tally of $90 million.

Wind River continued a laudible run, climbing to third with $7.8 million (I was under with $5.1M). It’s made $20 million thus far.

Animated Leap! was fourth with $6.2 million (I said $5.4M) to see its total jump to $12 million.

Dunkirk rounded out the top five with $5.5 million, ahead of my $4.2M prediction. The Oscar hopeful has amassed $180 million.

Aforementioned newbies both bombed. Latin comedy Hazlo Como Hombre earned a measly $1.4 million (I went higher with $3.5M). Long delayed Alicia Vikander period piece Tulip Fever fared even worse at $1.3 million (I predicted $1.9M). Those debuts were good for 22nd and 24th place, respectively. Ouch.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: September 1-4

After this weekend’s incredibly sluggish box office frame (more on that below), Hollywood is more or less taking the Labor Day holiday off. Only two pictures are debuting and neither is a wide release. They are the Spanish language comedy Hazlo Como Hombre and oft-delayed costume drama Tulip Fever. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

Hazlo Como Hombre Box Office Prediction

Tulip Fever Box Office Prediction

Even though Hombre is on 200 screens less than Tulip, I’m predicting it will have a higher opening. My $3.5 million estimate for it outshines my $1.9 million one for Tulip. Either way, my takes on the newbies put them both outside the top 5.

The good news (if you can call it that) for returnees is that this particular weekend usually sees very small declines and even increases from the previous weekend. That should mean a return engagement on top for The Hitman’s Bodyguard for the third time.

There could be a legitimate battle for #2 depending on the fluctuations of holdovers like Annabelle: Creation, Leap!, Wind River, Dunkirk, or a potentially higher Hombre gross than I’m saying.

And with that, my top 5 estimates for the holiday weekend:

1. The Hitman’s Bodyguard

Predicted Gross: $8.9 million (representing a drop of 13%)

2. Annabelle: Creation

Predicted Gross: $5.7 million (representing a drop of 25%)

3. Leap!

Predicted Gross: $5.4 million (representing an increase of 15%)

4. Wind River

Predicted Gross: $5.1 million (representing an increase of 11%)

5. Dunkirk

Predicted Gross: $4.2 million (representing an increase of 10%)

Box Office Results (August 25-27)

It was, to put it mildly, a terrible weekend at the box office. Between the lack of any high-profile releases, a hurricane in Texas, and a boxing match that captured the nation’s attention on Saturday night, the top 12 sunk to its lowest level since late September 2001. Obviously, this was at a time when the country was still reeling from the 9/11 tragedy. It will clearly take It the following weekend to wake the box office from its slumber because it isn’t happening over Labor Day.

As anticipated, The Hitman’s Bodyguard repeated at #1 with $10.2 million, in line with my $10.5M estimate for a two-week total of $39M. Look for it to three peat this weekend in another disastrous frame.

Annabelle: Creation held the runner-up spot again with $7.6 million, on pace with my $7.7M projection for a $78M overall tally.

Animated Leap! debuted in third with a middling $4.7 million, a bit above my $4.1M take. The production did manage an A Cinemascore grade, so it’ll hope for a fair Labor Day gross.

I incorrectly left the Jeremy Renner thriller Wind River outside the top 5, but it expanded its screen count to place fourth and made $4.6 million to bring its earnings to $10M.

Logan Lucky was fifth with $4.2 million (I said $4M) and it’s lackluster total is $14M.

Dunkirk was sixth with $3.9 million (I estimated $4.2M) for $172M overall.

Other debuts failed to garner eyeballs. Birth of the Dragon was 8th with $2.7 million compared to my $2.9M projection. Faith based drama All Saints faltered in 16th with $1.5 million. I was more generous with a $2.6M prediction.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: August 25-27

The doldrums of the late August box office eclipses theaters this weekend as four new entries are scheduled to open wide: animated Leap!, Christian themed drama All Saints, martial arts pic Birth of the Dragon, and Robert Pattinson heist thriller Good Time. You can look directly at my individual prediction posts here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/08/16/leap-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/08/16/all-saints-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/08/17/birth-of-the-dragon-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/08/21/good-time-box-office-prediction/

As you can see, I only have one of the newbies over $4 million (ouch). Good Time is a bit of a head scratcher, since there’s no theater count yet (my estimate for it could easily change). I only have it at $1.5 million currently.

With my $2.9 million prediction for Dragon and $2.6 million prognosis for Saints, that means I only have Leap! managing a top 5 debut in fourth.

That means holdovers dominate the remainder of my picks with The Hitman’s Bodyguard easily repeating at number one and Annabelle: Creation, Logan Lucky, and Dunkirk filling the remaining slots.

And with that, my top 5 predictions for the weekend:

1. The Hitman’s Bodyguard

Predicted Gross: $10.5 million (representing a drop of 51%)

2. Annabelle: Creation

Predicted Gross: $7.7 million (representing a drop of 51%)

3. Dunkirk

Predicted Gross: $4.2 million (representing a drop of 36%)

4. Leap!

Predicted Gross: $4.1 million

5. Logan Lucky

Predicted Gross: $4 million (representing a drop of 47%)

 

Box Office Results (August 18-20)

The Hitman’s Bodyguard easily topped the box office and opened at the highest end of expectations with $21.3 million compared to my lower $16.7M estimate. The Ryan Reynolds/Samuel L. Jackson action comedy could well be #1 for three weeks, considering the extreme lack of competition.

Annabelle: Creation dropped to second with  $15.6 million to bring its pleasing total to $64 million. I predicted just a tad lower at $14.6M.

Despite positive reviews and considerable star power, Steven Soderbergh’s heist comedy Logan Lucky opened with lackluster results in third with $7.6 million, below my $10.5M prediction.

Dunkirk was fourth with $6.6 million (I said $7M) for a $165 million overall tally.

The Nut Job 2: Nutty by Nature was fifth in its second weekend with $5 million, a bit above my $4.5M forecast. Its total is $17 million.

That does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: August 18-20

Mid August at the box office comes with some star power as two new pictures open competing for the same audience: Ryan Reynolds/Samuel L. Jackson action comedy The Hitman’s Bodyguard and Steven Soderbergh’s heist action comedy Logan Lucky with Channing Tatum and Daniel Craig. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on both of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/08/09/the-hitmans-bodyguard-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/08/09/logan-lucky-box-office-prediction/

The newbies could find themselves in a battle for the #1 spot. Lucky is winning on the reviews side with a terrific 96% on Rotten Tomatoes while Bodyguard stands at 55%. However, my inkling is that Mr. Reynolds will edge out Mr. Tatum with a gross in the mid to higher teens with Lucky in the lower teens.

There’s also the matter of Annabelle: Creation, which got off to a strong start this past weekend (more on that below). If Bodyguard and Lucky both underwhelm, the demonic doll has a slight chance to repeat at #1. However, the horror prequel is likely to suffer a drop in the mid to high 50s. If it all pans out as I see it, we will have our fourth weekend of 2017 where no movie manages to top $20 million.

The rest of the top five should be filled out by holdovers Dunkirk and The Nut Job 2: Nutty by Nature in its second frame after a weak start.

Lastly, the Taylor Sheridan directed thriller Wind River with Jeremy Renner and Elizabeth Olsen is slated to expand to approximately 600-700 screens. It’s been performing well with critics and in limited release. If that screen count holds true, I’d peg it at $3.1 million this weekend.

And with that, my top 5 projections for the weekend:

1. The Hitman’s Bodyguard

Predicted Gross: $16.7 million

2. Annabelle: Creation

Predicted Gross: $14.6 million (representing a drop of 58%)

3. Logan Lucky

Predicted Gross: $10.5 million

4. Dunkirk

Predicted Gross: $7 million (representing a drop of 36%)

5. The Nut Job 2: Nutty by Nature

Predicted Gross: $4.5 million (representing a drop of 46%)

Box Office Results (August 11-13)

Annabelle: Creation scared up some solid business taking in $35 million (beating my $31.4M forecast) to easily place #1. The horror prequel fell just shy of the $37.1 million accomplished by its 2014 predecessor and keeps the Conjuring universe chugging right along.

Dunkirk remained in second with $10.8 million (I was a touch higher at $11.7M). It’s made $153M thus far.

Family audiences largely rejected The Nut Job 2: Nutty by Nature, which debuted in third to just $8.3 million (under my $12.2M prediction). The sequel made less than half of the $19 million achieved out of the gate by the 2014 original. Opening on over 4000 screens, it had a per screen average of just over $2,000. On the bright side, parents who did take their kids to see it probably had plenty of room to roam about the theater. Ouch.

The Dark Tower went from first to fourth with $7.8 million (I said $7.6M). bringing its lackluster two-week tally to only $34M.

Girls Trip placed fifth with $6.4 million (I projected $7.2M) as it stands at $97M and should cross the century mark this week.

The Emoji Movie was #6, also with $6.4 million (I said $6M) for a $63M total.

Finally, Brie Larson drama The Glass Castle had a respectable debut in ninth with $4.6 million (I was close at $4.2M). On a relatively small 1400+ screens, it actually achieved the second highest per screen average of the top ten.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: August 11-13

August rolled in like a lamb at the box office and three new releases this weekend will try and pick things up: horror prequel Annabelle: Creation, animated sequel The Nut Job 2: Nutty by Nature, and Brie Larson led drama The Glass Castle. You can peruse my detailed individual prediction posts on each of them here:

Annabelle: Creation Box Office Prediction

The Nut Job 2: Nutty by Nature Box Office Prediction

The Glass Castle Box Office Prediction

Annabelle has received significantly better reviews than its predecessor, yet I still question its ability to open above it (the original was coming hot on the heels of The Conjuring). Still, my estimate for Creation has it easily topping the charts in the low 30s.

My lower teens estimate for Nutty by Nature (yeah you know me) should be good enough for second place considering expectations for holdovers and the weak debut of current #1 The Dark Tower (more on its opening below).

As for The Glass Castle, the current theater count is 1400 which is pretty low. Even though it’s based on a popular book from 2005, the marketing campaign seems rather quiet and I’ve got it outside the top five at $4.2 million. Note that this number could be revised up (and maybe down though doubtful) as the week rolls along.

Dunkirk may just fall one spot to third with Tower dropping to fourth. The five spot could be a battle between The Emoji Movie and Girls Trip. And with that, we’ll do a top 6 projections for this particular weekend:

1. Annabelle: Creation

Predicted Gross: $31.4 million

2. The Nut Job 2: Nutty by Nature

Predicted Gross: $12.2 million

3. Dunkirk

Predicted Gross: $11.7 million (representing a drop of 31%)

4. The Dark Tower

Predicted Gross: $7.6 million (representing a drop of 60%)

5. Girls Trip

Predicted Gross: $7.2 million (representing a drop of 37%)

6. The Emoji Movie

Predicted Gross: $6 million (representing a drop of 50%)

Box Office Results (August 4-6)

The long-awaited adaptation of Stephen King’s The Dark Tower experienced four revisions down from my original prediction post which put it in the mid 30s (that seems like a long time ago). It soon became clear the pic wasn’t going to perform too well and that bore out with $19.1 million (my final prediction was $18.4M). That’s still good for first place, but it’s a pretty darn soft debut. Poor reviews and word-of-mouth took its toll. This was only the third weekend of the year (and first of the summer) to feature a #1 movie performing under $20M (though I’d anticipate more later in the month).

Dunkirk dropped to second after two weeks on top with $17.1 million (ahead of my predicted $15.5M) for a total of $133M.

The Emoji Movie was third in its sophomore frame with $12 million (I said $11.4M) to bring its two-week tally to $49M.

Girls Trip took the four spot with $11.4 million, a bit shy of my $12.9M projection to bring the sleeper hit’s total to $85M.

The Halle Berry thriller Kidnap had a decent little opening in fifth with $10 million, easily outpacing my $6.8M projection. Its double digit debut was certainly on the higher end of expectations.

For Kathryn Bigelow’s Detroit, its performance was underwhelming. Despite very positive reviews, the 1960s set racial drama placed 8th with just $7.1 million compared to my $11.6M forecast.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: August 4-6

Blogger’s Note (08/03): On eve of debut, revising Dark Tower down significantly

The month of August begins at the box office with three new releases hitting multiplexes: the long in the works Stephen King adaptation The Dark Tower with Idris Elba and Matthew McConaughey, Kathryn Bigelow’s 1960s set racial drama Detroit, and Halle Berry’s oft delayed thriller Kidnap. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/07/26/the-dark-tower-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/07/26/detroit-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/07/26/kidnap-box-office-prediction/

Over the past week, I have considerably revised my Dark Tower estimate down from a mid 30s debut to now mid 20s. That should be enough to get it to #1, however.

Detroit is garnering highly positive reviews and could certainly over perform, but I’ve got it pegged in the low double digits with a likelihood it plays well through the month. That might be good for anywhere between third and fifth – depending on holdover activity for Emoji Movie and Girls Trip. 

Kidnap could surprise (no one thought Berry’s The Call would do the business it did), but I’m not projecting much for it. My $6.8M estimate puts it outside the top five.

As for holdovers, Dunkirk should slide to second after two weeks on top. Animated movies typically suffer smallish drops in their sophomore weekend, but The Emoji Movie could be an exception to the rule after its dismal reviews and so-so B Cinemascore grade. Girls Trip should continue to impress in week #3.

And with that, my top 5 predictions for the weekend ahead:

1. The Dark Tower

Predicted Gross: $18.4 million

2. Dunkirk

Predicted Gross: $15.5 million (representing a drop of 42%)

3. Girls Trip 

Predicted Gross: $12.9 million (representing a drop of 34%)

4. Detroit

Predicted Gross: $11.6 million

5. The Emoji Movie

Predicted Gross: $11.4 million (representing a drop of 54%)

 

Box Office Results (July 28-30)

Christopher Nolan’s acclaimed Dunkirk was the first pic since Wonder Woman to stay atop the charts for two weeks in a row as it grossed $26.6 million (under my $32.8M projection) for a two-week total of $101 million.

The Emoji Movie settled for second place with $24.5 million, a bit below my $28.4M forecast. As mentioned, poor reviews and word-of-mouth could keep this from performing well in subsequent weekends.

Girls Trip continued its fantastic run as the comedy of the summer with $19.6 million compared to my $17.3M estimate. Its earned $65 million thus far with the century mark firmly in its sights.

Charlize Theron’s spy thriller Atomic Blonde did rather underwhelming business with $18.2 million, on target with my $18.6M prediction. Mostly solid reviews couldn’t keep this from a mediocre start.

Spider-Man: Homecoming rounded out the top five with $13.2 million (I said $12M) for a $278M overall tally.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: July 28-30

As July draws to a close this weekend, we have two new entries attempting to knock Dunkirk off its #1 perch. They are the animated pic The Emoji Movie and Charlize Theron action spy thriller Atomic Blonde. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/07/19/the-emoji-movie-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/07/19/atomic-blonde-box-office-prediction/

I’m expecting The Emoji Movie to post a debut in the upper 20s – not as high as The Angry Birds Movie from last summer ($38 million) but better than this summer’s Captain Underpants ($23 million).

As for Atomic Blonde, I’ve been consistently revising my projection down since last Wednesday. Even though the pic is getting decent reviews, I’ve gone from $26 million down to high teens. That would likely give it a third place showing (depending on how far Girls Trip drops).

Neither of those openings may be enough to keep Dunkirk from the top spot. I anticipate the critically heralded Chris Nolan war drama to experience a rather small decline in the mid 30s range (more on its opening below).

Girls Trip, coming off a terrific debut, may also experience a smallish decline. The comedy of the summer should benefit from an A+ Cinemascore rating and strong word of mouth. I have it pegged at a 40s dip.

Spider-Man: Homecoming should round out the top five. And with that, my top 5 projections for the weekend:

1. Dunkirk

Predicted Gross: $32.8 million (representing a drop of 34%)

2. The Emoji Movie

Predicted Gross: $28.4 million

3. Atomic Blonde

Predicted Gross: $18.6 million

4. Girls Trip

Predicted Gross: $17.3 million (representing a drop of 44%)

5. Spider-Man: Homecoming

Predicted Gross: $12 million (representing a drop of 45%)

Box Office Results (July 21-23)

Dunkirk landed on top debuting with a strong $50.5 million (surpassing my $44.7M prediction). Topping the $47 million debut of his last effort Interstellar, look for Nolan’s latest to experience rather meager declines throughout August.

Girls Trip broke the R rated comedy curse of this summer with a magnificent $31.2 million opening for 2nd place, topping my $27.3M estimate. Its budget is only a reported $30 million, so there’s likely champagne bottles popping over at Universal Pictures.

Spider-Man: Homecoming was third with $22.1 million, a tad above my $20.6M projection for a three-week tally of $251 million.

War for the Planet of the Apes dropped significantly in its sophomore frame, placing fourth with $20.8 million (I said $23.5M). The third franchise entry in the Apes saga has taken in $98 million.

While the debut news was celebratory for Dunkirk and Girls Trip, the same cannot be said for Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets. The Luc Besson mega-budgeted science fiction spectacle premiered to a weak $17 million in fifth place, in line with my $17.8M prediction. Look for it to fade quickly stateside while hoping to make some of its budget back overseas.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: July 21-23

Blogger’s Note (07/19/17): I’ve revised my Girls Trip number to $27.3 million, up from $20.3 million in original post below.

A trio of newcomers hit multiplexes this weekend: Christopher Nolan’s WWII action drama Dunkirk, Luc Besson’s sci-fi spectacle Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets, and raunchy and critically lauded comedy Girls Trip with Queen Latifah and Jada Pinkett Smith. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/07/12/dunkirk-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/07/12/valerian-and-the-city-of-a-thousand-planets-box-office-predictions/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/07/12/girls-trip-box-office-prediction/

As I see it, Dunkirk should appeal to adult moviegoers ready for something other than sequels and reboots. I have it slated to debut at #1 with a mid 40s haul and it will likely play well in subsequent weekends through the month of August.

War for the Planet of the Apes should lose over half its audience and drop to second. More on its opening below.

The real battle could be for the three-five spots. Spider-Man: Homecoming may lose a bit over 50% in weekend #3 after a larger than expected dip in its sophomore frame. I believe Girls Trip has breakout success potential. While it’s been a weak summer for comedies, Girls is garnering solid reviews and I think it opens to just over $20 million.

In my estimation, that puts the massively budgeted Valerian in fifth. It could certainly top $20 million, but my gut has it under that figure. The pic should perform better overseas.

And with that, my top 5 predictions for the weekend:

1. Dunkirk

Predicted Gross: $44.7 million

2. Girls Trip

Predicted Gross: $27.3 million

3. War for the Planet of the Apes

Predicted Gross: $23.5 million (representing a drop of 57%)

4. Spider-Man: Homecoming

Predicted Gross: $20.6 million (representing a drop of 53%)

5. Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets

Predicted Gross: $17.8 million

Box Office Results (July 14-16)

Critically heralded three-quel War for the Planet of the Apes dethroned Spider-Man for the top spot, earning $56.2 million. This falls under my $63.4M prediction. War played less like its predecessor Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, which made $72 million for its start and more like 2011’s Rise of the Planet of the Apes, which debuted with $54 million. While a decent showing, this is on the lower end of expectations for what War would accomplish.

Spider-Man: Homecoming fell a steep 61% for second with $44.2 million (I was higher at $55.2M). Spidey’s full inclusion into the MCU has amassed $207 million in its first ten days.

Despicable Me 3 held up a bit better than my projection in third with $19.3 million (I said $17M). The Dreamworks animated three-quel stands at $188 million in three weeks.

Baby Driver was fourth with $8.7 million (I said $7.8M) and its total is at $73 million. Surpassing the century mark looks within its grasp.

Kumail Nanjiani’s well reviewed romantic comedy The Big Sick expanded nationwide for a fifth place showing of $7.5 million. My prediction? $7.5 million! I would expect solid word-of-mouth will have this experiencing fairly small drops in upcoming weekends.

Wonder Woman was sixth with $6.8 million (I went with $6.1M) to bring its startling gross to $380 million. Barring some sort of totally unforeseen late summer surprise, it now appears as if Gal Gadot’s spin-off pic will be this season’s highest earner (something that was practically unthinkable just a couple of months ago).

Debuting in seventh was horror entry Wish Upon, which failed to scare up much business with just $5.4 million (I said $5.9M).

And that will do it for now folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: July 14-16

War for the Planet of the Apes attempts to knock Spider-Man off his perch from the #1 spot at the box office this weekend as the horror pic Wish Upon also debuts. You can find my detailed prediction posts on both here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/07/05/war-for-the-planet-of-the-apes-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/07/06/wish-upon-box-office-prediction/

As I see it, Spider-Man: Homecoming (coming off a fine debut and more on that below) should lose a bit over 50% of its opening crowd. That means my mid 60s forecast for Planet should put it fairly comfortably at #1.

Despicable Me 3 should drop to third. The wild card this weekend could be critically acclaimed rom com The Big Sick, which has been performing extremely well in limited release. It’s set to expand nationwide on Friday and could easily contend with Baby Driver for the four spot. I’ll put it just below Baby for now, but could revise my estimate depending on the official theater count arriving later this week.

As far as Wish Upon, horror flicks are always capable of over performing, yet I’m not expecting much for it. It could find itself in a battle for sixth with Wonder Woman. 

And with that, I’ll do a top 7 projections for this particular weekend:

1. War for the Planet of the Apes

Predicted Gross: $63.4 million

2. Spider-Man: Homecoming

Predicted Gross: $55.2 million (representing a drop of 52%)

3. Despicable Me 3

Predicted Gross: $17 million (representing a drop of 49%)

4. Baby Driver

Predicted Gross: $7.8 million (representing a drop of 40%)

5. The Big Sick

Predicted Gross: $7.5 million

6. Wonder Woman 

Predicted Gross: $6.1 million (representing a drop of 38%)

7. Wish Upon

Predicted Gross: $5.9 million

Box Office Results (July 7-9)

Marvel and Sony had much to celebrate this weekend as Spider-Man: Homecoming swung into theaters with a solid $117 million, right on pace with my $117.8M projection. Stellar reviews and Spidey’s entrance into the Marvel Cinematic Universe certainly helped.

Despicable Me 3 dropped to second in its sophomore frame to $33.5 million, a bit shy of my $36.3M estimate for a ten-day total of $148M.

At third, Baby Driver help up well in weekend #2 with $13 million, in line with my $13.6M estimate. It’s made $57M thus far.

Wonder Woman was fourth with $9.8 million (I said $9.9M) for a haul of $368M.

Transformers: The Last Knight rounded out the top five at $6.3 million (I said $7M) for a $118M total. It will easily stand as the lowest domestic earner of the franchise, which currently belongs to predecessor Age of Extinction at $245M.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: July 7-9

There’s only one new major release this weekend hitting multiplexes, but it’s a big one in the form of Spider-Man: Homecoming. This is the third iteration of the beloved web slinger with Tom Holland inheriting the tights after his cameo in Captain America: Civil War. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/06/27/spider-man-homecoming-box-office-prediction/

Spidey should easily rule the charts this weekend and my prediction puts it a couple million above what the original accomplished 15 years ago.

As for holdovers, Despicable Me 3 had a somewhat disappointing debut (more on that below) and I look for it to lose nearly half its audience in the sophomore frame.

Baby Driver, on the other hand, was quite a breakout hit and word of mouth is strong. Its drop-off shouldn’t be as pronounced. Wonder Woman and Transformers look to round out the top five.

And with that, my top 5 projections for the weekend ahead:

1. Spider-Man: Homecoming

Predicted Gross: $117.8 million

2. Despicable Me 3

Predicted Gross: $36.3 million (representing a drop of 49%)

3. Baby Driver

Predicted Gross: $13.6 million (representing a drop of 34%)

4. Wonder Woman

Predicted Gross: $9.9 million (representing a drop of 37%)

5. Transformers: The Last Knight

Predicted Gross: $7 million (representing a drop of 58%)

Box Office Results (June 30-July 2)

Illumination Entertainment’s Despicable Me 3 earned an estimated $72.4 million, which easily placed it first. However, this was easily $10 million below most of the lowest guesstimates. I projected a higher haul at $88.7M.

Edgar Wright’s critically acclaimed Baby Driver greatly exceeded expectations with a $20.5 million Friday to Sunday gross and a cool $29.5 million since its Wednesday opening. This blew away my respective predictions of $10.9M and $15.8M and proved that audiences are hungry for programming in the summer that isn’t a sequel or reboot.

Transformers: The Last Knight slipped to third with $16.8 million (in line with my $17.4M forecast) for a $102M total.

Wonder Woman was close behind in fourth with $15.7 million (I said $14.5M) to bring its massive earnings to $346M.

Cars 3 rounded out the top five with $9.6 million (I was higher at $12.1M) for a $120M overall gross.

The poorly reviewed Will Ferrell/Amy Poehler comedy The House was DOA in sixth place, earning only $8.7 million for its start (I said $13.8M).

Finally, Sofia Coppola’s The Beguiled expanded its theater count and took in $3.1 million compared to my $3.8M prediction.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…