Box Office Predictions: August 25-27

The doldrums of the late August box office eclipses theaters this weekend as four new entries are scheduled to open wide: animated Leap!, Christian themed drama All Saints, martial arts pic Birth of the Dragon, and Robert Pattinson heist thriller Good Time. You can look directly at my individual prediction posts here:

As you can see, I only have one of the newbies over $4 million (ouch). Good Time is a bit of a head scratcher, since there’s no theater count yet (my estimate for it could easily change). I only have it at $1.5 million currently.

With my $2.9 million prediction for Dragon and $2.6 million prognosis for Saints, that means I only have Leap! managing a top 5 debut in fourth.

That means holdovers dominate the remainder of my picks with The Hitman’s Bodyguard easily repeating at number one and Annabelle: Creation, Logan Lucky, and Dunkirk filling the remaining slots.

And with that, my top 5 predictions for the weekend:

1. The Hitman’s Bodyguard

Predicted Gross: $10.5 million (representing a drop of 51%)

2. Annabelle: Creation

Predicted Gross: $7.7 million (representing a drop of 51%)

3. Dunkirk

Predicted Gross: $4.2 million (representing a drop of 36%)

4. Leap!

Predicted Gross: $4.1 million

5. Logan Lucky

Predicted Gross: $4 million (representing a drop of 47%)


Box Office Results (August 18-20)

The Hitman’s Bodyguard easily topped the box office and opened at the highest end of expectations with $21.3 million compared to my lower $16.7M estimate. The Ryan Reynolds/Samuel L. Jackson action comedy could well be #1 for three weeks, considering the extreme lack of competition.

Annabelle: Creation dropped to second with  $15.6 million to bring its pleasing total to $64 million. I predicted just a tad lower at $14.6M.

Despite positive reviews and considerable star power, Steven Soderbergh’s heist comedy Logan Lucky opened with lackluster results in third with $7.6 million, below my $10.5M prediction.

Dunkirk was fourth with $6.6 million (I said $7M) for a $165 million overall tally.

The Nut Job 2: Nutty by Nature was fifth in its second weekend with $5 million, a bit above my $4.5M forecast. Its total is $17 million.

That does it for now, folks! Until next time…

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