Box Office Predictions: July 14-16

War for the Planet of the Apes attempts to knock Spider-Man off his perch from the #1 spot at the box office this weekend as the horror pic Wish Upon also debuts. You can find my detailed prediction posts on both here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/07/05/war-for-the-planet-of-the-apes-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/07/06/wish-upon-box-office-prediction/

As I see it, Spider-Man: Homecoming (coming off a fine debut and more on that below) should lose a bit over 50% of its opening crowd. That means my mid 60s forecast for Planet should put it fairly comfortably at #1.

Despicable Me 3 should drop to third. The wild card this weekend could be critically acclaimed rom com The Big Sick, which has been performing extremely well in limited release. It’s set to expand nationwide on Friday and could easily contend with Baby Driver for the four spot. I’ll put it just below Baby for now, but could revise my estimate depending on the official theater count arriving later this week.

As far as Wish Upon, horror flicks are always capable of over performing, yet I’m not expecting much for it. It could find itself in a battle for sixth with Wonder Woman. 

And with that, I’ll do a top 7 projections for this particular weekend:

1. War for the Planet of the Apes

Predicted Gross: $63.4 million

2. Spider-Man: Homecoming

Predicted Gross: $55.2 million (representing a drop of 52%)

3. Despicable Me 3

Predicted Gross: $17 million (representing a drop of 49%)

4. Baby Driver

Predicted Gross: $7.8 million (representing a drop of 40%)

5. The Big Sick

Predicted Gross: $7.5 million

6. Wonder Woman 

Predicted Gross: $6.1 million (representing a drop of 38%)

7. Wish Upon

Predicted Gross: $5.9 million

Box Office Results (July 7-9)

Marvel and Sony had much to celebrate this weekend as Spider-Man: Homecoming swung into theaters with a solid $117 million, right on pace with my $117.8M projection. Stellar reviews and Spidey’s entrance into the Marvel Cinematic Universe certainly helped.

Despicable Me 3 dropped to second in its sophomore frame to $33.5 million, a bit shy of my $36.3M estimate for a ten-day total of $148M.

At third, Baby Driver help up well in weekend #2 with $13 million, in line with my $13.6M estimate. It’s made $57M thus far.

Wonder Woman was fourth with $9.8 million (I said $9.9M) for a haul of $368M.

Transformers: The Last Knight rounded out the top five at $6.3 million (I said $7M) for a $118M total. It will easily stand as the lowest domestic earner of the franchise, which currently belongs to predecessor Age of Extinction at $245M.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

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2 thoughts on “Box Office Predictions: July 14-16

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