Box Office Predictions: September 1-4

After this weekend’s incredibly sluggish box office frame (more on that below), Hollywood is more or less taking the Labor Day holiday off. Only two pictures are debuting and neither is a wide release. They are the Spanish language comedy Hazlo Como Hombre and oft-delayed costume drama Tulip Fever. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/08/28/hazlo-como-hombre-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/08/23/tulip-fever-box-office-prediction/

Even though Hombre is on 200 screens less than Tulip, I’m predicting it will have a higher opening. My $3.5 million estimate for it outshines my $1.9 million one for Tulip. Either way, my takes on the newbies put them both outside the top 5.

The good news (if you can call it that) for returnees is that this particular weekend usually sees very small declines and even increases from the previous weekend. That should mean a return engagement on top for The Hitman’s Bodyguard for the third time.

There could be a legitimate battle for #2 depending on the fluctuations of holdovers like Annabelle: Creation, Leap!, Wind River, Dunkirk, or a potentially higher Hombre gross than I’m saying.

And with that, my top 5 estimates for the holiday weekend:

1. The Hitman’s Bodyguard

Predicted Gross: $8.9 million (representing a drop of 13%)

2. Annabelle: Creation

Predicted Gross: $5.7 million (representing a drop of 25%)

3. Leap!

Predicted Gross: $5.4 million (representing an increase of 15%)

4. Wind River

Predicted Gross: $5.1 million (representing an increase of 11%)

5. Dunkirk

Predicted Gross: $4.2 million (representing an increase of 10%)

Box Office Results (August 25-27)

It was, to put it mildly, a terrible weekend at the box office. Between the lack of any high-profile releases, a hurricane in Texas, and a boxing match that captured the nation’s attention on Saturday night, the top 12 sunk to its lowest level since late September 2001. Obviously, this was at a time when the country was still reeling from the 9/11 tragedy. It will clearly take It the following weekend to wake the box office from its slumber because it isn’t happening over Labor Day.

As anticipated, The Hitman’s Bodyguard repeated at #1 with $10.2 million, in line with my $10.5M estimate for a two-week total of $39M. Look for it to three peat this weekend in another disastrous frame.

Annabelle: Creation held the runner-up spot again with $7.6 million, on pace with my $7.7M projection for a $78M overall tally.

Animated Leap! debuted in third with a middling $4.7 million, a bit above my $4.1M take. The production did manage an A Cinemascore grade, so it’ll hope for a fair Labor Day gross.

I incorrectly left the Jeremy Renner thriller Wind River outside the top 5, but it expanded its screen count to place fourth and made $4.6 million to bring its earnings to $10M.

Logan Lucky was fifth with $4.2 million (I said $4M) and it’s lackluster total is $14M.

Dunkirk was sixth with $3.9 million (I estimated $4.2M) for $172M overall.

Other debuts failed to garner eyeballs. Birth of the Dragon was 8th with $2.7 million compared to my $2.9M projection. Faith based drama All Saints faltered in 16th with $1.5 million. I was more generous with a $2.6M prediction.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

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