Box Office Predictions: March 16-18

Over the weekend, even Disney couldn’t knock Disney’s Black Panther off its perch atop the box office for the fourth frame in a row. Might the King’s reign end this weekend with the release of Tomb Raider? We also have teen romantic drama Love, Simon and faith-based true life drama I Can Only Imagine debuting. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on that trio here:

And that’s not quite all. There’s also the action thriller 7 Days in Entebbe with Daniel Bruhl and Rosamund Pike. It’s slated to come out on a low 800 screens and reviews have not been kind. I think it will be lucky to clear $1 million in its opening and I didn’t bother to do an individual estimate for it.

My estimate for Tomb Raider does give it the #1 slot, albeit not by much. I believe Panther is probably good for another $25M+ weekend and that puts it within striking distance.

Love, Simon is a big question mark in my view. It has sleeper potential due to its subject matter and glowing reviews. It could easily surprise and post a third place debut, but I’ve got it a bit lower in fourth after the second weekend of A Wrinkle in Time. That film, which underwhelmed out of the gate, could lose about half its opening weekend audience.

As for the five spot, I predict Game Night will stay there (vaulting over The Strangers: Prey at Night and Red Sparrow). My $5.4 million projection for I Can Only Imagine leaves it just outside the top 5 (yet even it has the potential to surpass my meager estimate).

And with that, here’s how I have the weekend playing out:

1. Tomb Raider

Predicted Gross: $26.4 million

2. Black Panther

Predicted Gross: $25.7 million

3. A Wrinkle in Time

Predicted Gross: $16.4 million

4. Love, Simon

Predicted Gross: $13.3 million

5. Game Night

Predicted Gross: $5.6 million

Box Office Results (March 9-11)

Black Panther held off its most serious competition to date – topping the charts and becoming the highest grossing comic book flick not named The Avengers. Holding the #1 spot for the fourth weekend in a row, Panther made $40.8 million (on target with my $40.2 estimate) for $561 million total. It now appears inevitable that it will surpass the $623 million made by Avengers to become the all-time superhero champ.

A Wrinkle in Time had to settle for the runner-up spot with $33.1 million as it came in on the lower end of estimates (middling reviews probably didn’t help). The heavily promoted fantasy debuted under my forecast of $37.8 million. Depending on its holds over the next few weeks, it could struggle to reach the century club.

As far as newcomers go, the success story of the weekend is long gestating horror sequel The Strangers: Prey at Night, which earned $10.4 million for third and topped my $7.9 million projection. In one weekend, it made double its teeny $5 million budget.

Red Sparrow was fourth in its sophomore outing with $8.5 million (I said $8.1 million) to bring its rather disappointing tally to $31 million.

Peter Rabbit ended up sixth with $6.7 million (I said $7.5 million) for $93 million as it hops towards the $100 million club.

I incorrectly had Game Night outside the top five, but it placed fifth with $7.8 million for $45 million overall.

The Hurricane Heist bombed with moviegoers and earned just $3 million in its ninth place opening, under my $5.6 million prediction. Gringo was another newcomer gaining zero traction with audiences as it made $2.7 million for 11th place (I said $3.1 million).

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: March 9-11

Blogger’s Note (03/07): I am revising my Wrinkle prediction from $42.8 million to $37.8 million and now have it in second place

A quartet of new movies enter the marketplace this weekend as Disney’s A Wrinkle in Time, horror sequel The Strangers: Prey at Night, disaster action pic The Hurricane Heist, and action comedy Gringo debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/02/28/a-wrinkle-in-time-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/02/28/the-strangers-prey-at-night/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/03/01/the-hurricane-heist-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/03/01/gringo-box-office-prediction/

A month ago, I would have told you that A Wrinkle in Time would easily debut at #1. However, then Black Panther happened (another Disney property). While I’m giving Time the #1 slot, if it under performs, it’s not out of the question that Panther could spend a fourth week atop the charts. I actually have the two of them quite close.

The other newbies likely face a tough road ahead. I have The Strangers sequel tops among that trio. My meager $3.1 million estimate for Gringo puts it well outside the top 5 while my $5.6 million projection for Hurricane also leaves it on the outside looking in. I’ll say Hurricane misses the top 5 due to holdover powers of others. The 3-5 slots and a bit beyond could have quite a logjam with Red Sparrow, Game Night, and Peter Rabbit all posting similar grosses. Sparrow should manage to be #3 (barely by my count). I’ll say current #3 Death Wish doesn’t hold up as well as Night or Rabbit and falls from the top 5 altogether.

And with that, my top 5 projections for the weekend ahead:

1. Black Panther

Predicted Gross: $40.2 million

2. A Wrinkle in Time

Predicted Gross: $37.8 million

3. Red Sparrow

Predicted Gross: $8.1 million

4. The Strangers: Prey at Night

Predicted Gross: $7.9 million

5. Peter Rabbit

Predicted Gross: $7.5 million

Box Office Results (March 2-4)

Disney/Marvel’s Black Panther continued its incredible performance in its third weekend, easily placing first with $66.3 million (in range with my $65.4 million forecast) for a total of $501 million overall. That puts Panther currently in 10th place on the all-time domestic earners list and it’s likely to climb to seventh this weekend. Its gross is good for the #3 all-time third weekend, behind only Star Wars: The Force Awakens and Avatar.

Red Sparrow took the runner-up spot with a middling $16.8 million (just under my $17.5 million estimate). The Jennifer Lawrence spy thriller was hit with mixed reviews and marks the second box office disappointment in a row for the lead actress after mother!.

The Death Wish remake with Bruce Willis opened in third to a rather disappointing $13 million, under my $16.6 million projection. Poor reviews and potential bad timing for its release could have hurt it. It should fade rather quickly.

Game Night was fourth in its sophomore frame, holding up well with $10.4 million (I said $9.8 million) for $33 million total.

Peter Rabbit rounded out the top five with $10 million (ahead of my prediction of $8.7 million) for $84 million overall. The family tale looks to join the century club at some point.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: March 2-4

Marvel’s Black Panther should continue its momentous run atop the box office as two newbies compete for action fan attention. They are Red Sparrow with Jennifer Lawrence and Death Wish starring Bruce Willis. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/02/21/red-sparrow-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/02/21/death-wish-box-office-prediction/

Not long ago, I might have estimated Red Sparrow would easily top Death Wish in their head to head. However, I’m beginning to believe it might be a fairly close race for the runner-up spot to Panther. That said, I’m still giving Katniss the edge over John McClane… or Joy over Hudson Hawk if you want to go less obvious.

Holdovers Game Night and Peter Rabbit should round out the top five.

And with that, my top 5 predictions for the weekend:

1. Black Panther

Predicted Gross: $65.4 million

2. Red Sparrow

Predicted Gross: $17.5 million

3. Death Wish

Predicted Gross: $16.6 million

4. Game Night

Predicted Gross: $9.8 million

5. Peter Rabbit

Predicted Gross: $8.7 million

Box Office Results (February 23-25)

Black Panther continued to confound prognosticators with its amazing run. In its sophomore frame, the Marvel phenomenon grossed $111.6 million, surging past my $101.8 million forecast. Incredibly, that gives it the #2 largest second weekend of all time behind only Star Wars: The Force Awakens.

Game Night debuted in second with a solid $17 million, capitalizing on positive reviews and a dearth of comedies to choose from. It opened in line with my $16.3 million estimate.

Peter Rabbit was third with $12.7 million in weekend #3 (I said $11.6 million) for $71 million overall.

Annihilation with Natalie Portman, despite glowing critical reception, struggled in fourth with $11 million – just edging my $10.4 million projection. While critics are digging it, audiences only gave it a C Cinemascore grade. Look for it to fade quickly.

Fifty Shades Freed rounded out the top five with $7.1 million (I said $6.9 million) to bring its tally to $89 million.

Finally, the YA romantic drama Every Day opened meekly in ninth with $3 million, right in line with my $2.9 million estimate.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: February 23-25

The domination of Black Panther should continue at the box office in full force this weekend, but we do have some new titles debuting. The Jason Bateman/Rachel McAdams comedy Game Night and Natalie Portman led sci-fi thriller Annihilation hit screens and you can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/02/14/game-night-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/02/14/annihilation-box-office-prediction/

There’s also Every Day, a romantic drama based on a YA novel that’s rolling out on roughly 1650 screens. It seems to be flying pretty far under the radar and I didn’t do an individual post on it. I’ll estimate it only generates $2.9 million in sales.

As for the more high-profile newbies, Game Night appears poised for a second place showing. Annihilation is more of a question mark in my mind. Depending on the drop that Peter Rabbit experiences in its third weekend, it could be third or fourth with Fifty Shades Freed rounding out the top five.

Black Panther will easily rule the charts after its historic and record breaking premiere (more on that below). The Marvel phenomenon could top $100 million in its sophomore frame and that would put it fourth all time as far as #2 weekends go. That said, it pretty much blew away all expectations over the long weekend so maybe it gets to over $100 million.

And with that, my top 5 predictions for the weekend:

1. Black Panther

Predicted Gross: $101.8 million

2. Game Night

Predicted Gross: $16.3 million

3. Peter Rabbit

Predicted Gross: $11.6 million

4. Annihilation

Predicted Gross: $10.4 million

5. Fifty Shades Freed

Predicted Gross: $6.9 million

Box Office Results (February 16-19)

It was an absolutely incredible debut for Black Panther as the critically acclaimed comic book adaptation smashed the February record and then some. Panther took in $242.1 million over the President’s Day frame, blasting past my $193.8 million estimate. Deadpool was the previous February high at $152 million. Its Friday to Sunday haul of $202 million gave it the fifth largest domestic opening of all time – right behind MCU counterpart The Avengers. Its Monday gross of $40.1 million stands as the highest Monday gross of all time – just edging out Star Wars: The Force Awakens by a few thousand bucks. With an A+ Cinemascore grade, look for Panther to continue its run for the ages into the next several weekends.

Peter Rabbit stayed put in the runner-up position with $23.3 million, hopping a touch over my $20.9 million prediction for a two-week tally of $54 million.

Fifty Shades Freed dropped to third with $19.4 million, a bit ahead of my $17 million estimate. In its two weeks of release, the threequel has taken in $78 million.

Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle took the four spot with $10 million, right in line with my $9.6 million projection for $379 million overall.

The 15:17 to Paris rounded out the top five with $8.9 million (I said $7.9 million) for $26 million thus far.

Stop-motion animated feature Early Man, despite mostly solid reviews, didn’t connect with family audiences. The pic opened in seventh with only $4.2 million compared to my prediction of $5.7 million.

Lastly, the Biblical drama Samson made no impact with moviegoers with just $2.2 million, not even matching my $3.1 million forecast.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: February 16-19

Blogger’s Note Part II (02/15): And my Panther estimate continues to go up. Now at $193.8 million

Blogger’s Note (02/15): On the eve of their premieres, I’m making the following adjustments: revising Panther up from $168.8M to $178.8M; Early Man from $5.4M to $5.7M; and Samson from $2.2M to $3.1M.

It should be a commanding weekend for Marvel’s Black Panther as it opens over President’s Day in what could be a record-breaking February debut. We also have the stop-motion animated feature Early Man premiering. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/02/06/black-panther-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/02/08/early-man-box-office-prediction/

Panther sprints into theaters with red hot word-of-mouth and sizzling reviews. The film appears to have entered into true event picture territory and it has sky high expectations. In order to blast through the current February record, it would need to eclipse Deadpool from two years ago, which also opened over the four-day POTUS frame. That movie earned $132 million from Friday to Sunday and $152 million when including Monday. My Panther estimate has Chadwick Boseman and company exceeding that.

I’m not expecting much from Early Man, which will experience severe competition from the second weekend of Peter Rabbit (likely to remain #2) and all the kiddos flocking to Panther. My $5.7 million forecast for it puts it outside the top 5.

I didn’t do an individual prediction post for Samson, a Biblical drama from Pure Flix that’s slated to open on around 1200 screens. I’ve got it pegged at just $3.1 million.

As mentioned, I see Rabbit retaining the number two spot while Fifty Shades Freed seems likely to drop to third. Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle and The 15:17 to Paris should round out the top five.

And with that, my top 5 predictions for the four-day holiday weekend:

1. Black Panther

Predicted Gross: $193.8 million

2. Peter Rabbit

Predicted Gross: $20.9 million

3. Fifty Shades Freed

Predicted Gross: $17 million

4. Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle

Predicted Gross: $9.6 million

5. The 15:17 to Paris

Predicted Gross: $7.9 million

Box Office Results (February 9-11)

Fifty Shades Freed closed out the franchise this weekend with the lowest debut of the three features, as anticipated. The final pairing of Anastasia and Christian took in $38.5 million, right on target with my $38.4 million estimate. The good news for Fifty? Its total this weekend including international sales brought the series overall to a billion dollars worldwide.

Peter Rabbit hopped into the second position with a strong $25 million, eclipsing my $18.7 million prediction. The family friendly tale (or tail if you will) looks to continue its impressive grosses in its sophomore frame where it should experience a smallish dip.

Clint Eastwood’s true-life terrorism drama The 15:17 to Paris opened in third to a middling $12.5 million, just below my $13.1 million projection. Mostly negative reviews likely didn’t help.

Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle was fourth with $10 million (I was lower at $8.6 million) for a grand tally of $365 million.

The Greatest Showman rounded out the top five with $6.4 million (I was in line with my $6.3 million forecast) for $146 million total.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: February 9-11

After a sluggish frame to start the month of February, things should be looking up this weekend as three higher profile titles debut: threequel Fifty Shades Freed, animated/live-action pic Peter Rabbit, and Clint Eastwood’s true-life terrorism drama The 15:17 to Paris. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/01/30/fifty-shades-freed-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/01/31/peter-rabbit-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/01/31/the-1517-to-paris-box-office-prediction/

As I see it, the trio of newcomers should rather easily populate numbers 1-3 with Freed leading the charge, albeit with less dollars coming in than either of its predecessors. Rabbit should sit in the two spot with 15:17 third.

That means Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle should fall to fourth and I’ll project The Greatest Showman remains in the top five with its continued smallish declines.

And with that, my top 5 projections for the weekend:

1. Fifty Shades Freed

Predicted Gross: $38.4 million

2. Peter Rabbit

Predicted Gross: $18.7 million

3. The 15:17 to Paris

Predicted Gross: $13.1 million

4. Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle

Predicted Gross: $8.6 million

5. The Greatest Showman

Predicted Gross: $6.3 million

Box Office Results (February 2-4)

In a quiet Super Bowl weekend, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle swung back into the top spot with $10.9 million, a bit below my $12.4 million forecast. The mega hit has amassed $352 million overall.

Maze Runner: The Death Cure dropped to second with $10.4 million, in line with my $10.6 million projection for a two-week tally of $40 million.

The weekend’s only newcomer, Helen Mirren horror pic Winchester, debuted in third to a mediocre $9.3 million. I was close with $9.1 million. It did manage to garner the best per screen average of the top five. That said, look for it to drop big next weekend.

The Greatest Showman was fourth with $7.6 million (I said $7.9 million) for $137 million total.

The Post was fifth and I incorrectly had it outside the top 5. It made $5.2 million and it stands at $67 million.

Hostiles was sixth at $5.1 million (I said $5.8 million) for $20 million in sales.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: February 2-4

Blogger’s Note (01/31): I am revisiting my Winchester prediction from $14.1 million to $9.1 million, which means I’m estimating it goes from first to third.

In what should be a rather lackluster weekend with the Super Bowl being played and the month’s heavy hitters waiting in the wings, Helen Mirren led horror pic Winchester is the only wide release hitting screens as February arrives. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/01/24/winchester-box-office-prediction/

My low teens predictions for Winchester still might be enough for it to nab the top spot, though it could find itself in a battle with both Jumanji and current top spot holder Maze Runner: The Death Cure.

The Greatest Showman and Hostiles (coming off a stronger than expected wide release) should round out the top five. And with that, my top 5 projections for the weekend:

1. Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle

Predicted Gross: $12.4 million

2. Maze Runner: The Death Cure

Predicted Gross: $10.6 million

3. Winchester

Predicted Gross: $9.1 million

4. The Greatest Showman

Predicted Gross: $7.9 million

5. Hostiles

Predicted Gross: $5.8 million

Box Office Results (January 26-28)

It took nearly a month, but Maze Runner: The Death Cure became the first 2018 title to become #1 at the box office. The third entry in the YA action franchise took in $24.1 million, a bit ahead of my $22.8 million projection. That’s under the previous two entries (which both topped $30 million out of the gate), but decent considering the two-year plus layover between parts 2 and 3.

Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle dropped to second after three weeks on top with $16.1 million (ahead of my $14.9 million forecast) for $337 million overall.

The lone surprise of the weekend would be Hostiles with Christian Bale, which greatly exceeded expectations with $10.1 million in third place. The well-reviewed Western expanded its theater count and placed on the high-end of estimates. I didn’t even have it in my top 5 and predicted a meager $4.8 million. Oops.

The Greatest Showman was fourth with $9.5 million (I said $8.5 million) for a total of $126 million.

The Post rounded out the top five with $9.1 million (I said $9.4 million) for $58 million overall.

Finally, I had 12 Strong in the top five but Hostiles messed that equation up. It grossed $8.6 million compared to my $8.9 million prediction for $28 million in two weeks.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: January 26-28

The month of January at the box office ends with one big new release and it’s Maze Runner: The Death Cure. The third franchise entry will look to finally dislodge Jumanji from its perch atop the charts. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/01/17/maze-runner-the-death-cure-box-office-prediction/

As you can see, I have Death not reaching the heights of its two predecessors. That said, even with a low 20s debut, it should be enough to allow it to become the first 2018 release to open #1 in 2018.

The other wide release is the expansion of Hostiles with Christian Bale. Despite stellar reviews, the once awards hopeful has been flying under the radar and posting lackluster per screen averages in its limited release. Current screen counts show it rolling out to 3000 screens. I’m a little skeptical it reaches that many (we’ll see on Thursday). If it does, I’ll peg its opening at $4.8 million and that leaves it outside the top five. If the theater count changes by Thursday, so will my estimate.

With competition rather light this weekend, holdovers should experience smallish declines with the seemingly unstoppable Jumanji, The Post and The Greatest Showman perhaps being the largest benefactors.

And with that, my top 5 projections for the weekend:

1. Maze Runner: The Death Cure

Predicted Gross: $22.8 million

2. Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle

Predicted Gross: $14.9 million

3. The Post

Predicted Gross: $9.4 million

4. 12 Strong

Predicted Gross: $8.9 million

5. The Greatest Showman

Predicted Gross: $8.5 million

Box Office Results (January 19-21)

For the third weekend in a row, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle dominated the box office charts while newcomers posted better than expected results. The franchise reboot took in $19.5 million and I was right there with my estimate of $19.6 million. It’s taken in $316 million overall.

The Chris Hemsworth led true life military tale 12 Strong took the runner-up position with a decent $15.8 million, topping my $13.9 million. That’s a smidge above what was expected of it.

The story of the weekend may well be the over performance of Gerard Butler’s Den of Thieves, which surprised everyone with a robust $15.2 million debut in third… way above my $6.1 million projection. It actually had the highest per screen average of all the wide releases over the weekend.

The Post was fourth in its second weekend of release with $11.7 million, shy of my $14 million projection for a total of $44 million.

The Greatest Showman rounded out the top 5 with $10.6 million (I said $9.9 million) for a tally of $113 million.

Finally, I incorrectly had The Commuter inside the top 5, but it was seventh with $6.6 million (I said $7.6 million). It’s two-week total is $25 million.

And that does it for now as far as box office predictions…

However, if you missed my FINAL Oscar predictions (they’re out tomorrow morning), you can find them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/01/18/todds-2017-final-oscar-predictions/

Box Office Predictions: January 19-21

Blogger’s Note (01/18/18): I am revising my 12 Strong prediction from $17.9 million down to $13.9 million

Two new titles vie for action fan attention this weekend as military themed 12 Strong and heist themed Den of Thieves debut. You can find my detailed prediction posts on both of them here:

12 Strong Box Office Prediction

Den of Thieves Box Office Prediction

12 Strong could potentially make a play for the top spot, but I suspect Jumanji will continue its dominance in first place. Looking over the post MLK weekend from years past, it’s not rare for holdovers to experience smallish declines. I suspect that will hold true for Jumanji and The Post.

Along those lines, The Greatest Showman should drop to fourth with The Commuter rounding out the top 5. My $6.1 million estimate for Den of Thieves puts it outside my high five.

And with that – here they are!

1. Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle

Predicted Gross: $19.6 million

2. The Post

Predicted Gross: $14 million

3. 12 Strong

Predicted Gross: $13.9 million

4. The Greatest Showman

Predicted Gross: $9.9 million

5. The Commuter

Predicted Gross: $7.6 million

Box Office Results (January 12–15)

Jumanji continued its remarkable run atop the charts over the four day MLK weekend with $35.1 million, edging past my prediction of $32.7 million. The smash sequel has amassed $291 million since its Christmas time debut.

There were plenty of new releases and expansions this weekend and Steven Spielberg’s Oscar hopeful The Post fared best in second with $23 million, in line with my $22.3 million estimate.

The Greatest Showman continued its stellar run with $16.1 million, singing beyond my $12.6 million prediction. It’s ready to join the century club as it stands at $98 million.

Liam Neeson took fourth with The Commuter as it opened with a fairly solid $15.8 million (I was a touch lower at $14.6 million).

One of the surprises of the weekend was the disappointing performance for critically acclaimed kiddie sequel Paddington 2, debuting in fifth with a mediocre $15 million. I had it pegged for a #2 premiere at $22.4 million. Oops.

Star Wars: The Last Jedi was sixth with $14.6 million (I said $15.5 million) for $594 million total.

Insidious: The Last Key fell from second to seventh with $14.3 million compared to my $13.2 million estimate. It’s earned $50 million in its two weeks of release.

In eighth place, Proud Mary with Taraji P. Henson had a muted start with $11.7 million, well under my $18.5 million projection.

Pitch Perfect 3 was ninth with $7.3 million. My prediction? $7.3 million. Woot woot. The three-quel is also on the cusp of nine figures with $96 million.

I incorrectly had Darkest Hour outside the top 10, but it placed 10th with $5.4 million and $36 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: January 12-15

It’s our third four-day weekend in four frames as the MLK holiday is Monday and there’s four new pictures debuting wide. They are: family geared sequel Paddington 2, Steven Spielberg Oscar hopeful The Post, Liam Neeson thriller The Commuter, and Taraji P. Henson action flick Proud Mary. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/01/03/paddington-2-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/01/04/the-post-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/01/03/the-commuter-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/01/03/proud-mary-box-office-prediction/

None are likely to dislodge Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle from its perch atop the charts. The MLK weekend typically sees minor drops from the previous one. As to which newbie garners the most cash… well, that’s an excellent question. I’m giving Paddington the slightest edge over The Post for the two spot. I also anticipate a healthy debut for Proud Mary over The Commuter, which could open outside the top 5 depending on the Star Wars hold.

As for the current #2, Insidious: The Last Key, it could fall to 7th after an impressive premiere (more on that below). Horror pics historically suffer more precipitous drops than other genres. Lots to consider on this unpredictable weekend and here are my top ten estimates for Friday through Monday:

1. Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle

Predicted Gross: $32.7 million (representing a drop of 12%)

2. Paddington 2

Predicted Gross: $22.4 million

3. The Post

Predicted Gross: $22.3 million

4. Proud Mary

Predicted Gross: $18.5 million

5. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Predicted Gross: $15.5 million (representing a drop of 35%)

6. The Commuter

Predicted Gross: $14.6 million

7. Insidious: The Last Key

Predicted Gross: $13.2 million (representing a drop of 55%)

8. The Greatest Showman

Predicted Gross: $12.6 million (representing a drop of 8%)

9. Pitch Perfect 3

Predicted Gross: $7.3 million (representing a drop of 28%)

10. Ferdinand

Predicted Gross: $6.5 million (representing a drop of 15%)

Box Office Results (January 5–7)

As expected, Jumanji vaulted over Star Wars in its third weekend to #1 with $37.2 million, easily outpacing my $29.1 million forecast for $245 million overall. The 90s reboot is performing fantastically and should continue its reign this weekend.

The other story of the weekend was the terrific performance of Insidious: The Last Key, exceeding all expectations at $29.5 million in second compared to my meager $18.6 million estimate. It’s yet another success story for Blumhouse after a sizzling 2017.

The Last Key dropped The Last Jedi to third with $23.7 million, in line with my $24.8 million projection. Episode VIII has taken in $572 million.

The Greatest Showman continued its nice run in fourth with $13.7 million (I was lower at $10.6 million) for $76 million total.

Finally, Pitch Perfect 3 rounded out the top five with $10.2 million (I said $8 million) to bring its coffers to $86 million.

And that does it for now folks! Until next time…

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