Tag: Box Office Results

Box Office Predictions: July 6-8

The first full weekend of July kicks off with the release of a sequel and a prequel: Marvel’s Ant–Man and the Wasp and Blumhouse’s The First Purge. You can peruse my detailed predictions on both of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/06/26/ant-man-and-the-wasp-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/06/27/the-first-purge-box-office-prediction/

The return of Paul Rudd and Evangeline Lilly in the MCU’s 20th offering should easily dominate the charts. I have Ant–Man achieving the MCU’s 14th largest haul with a mid 80s premiere.

As for The First Purge, the prequel and fourth series entry in six summers debuts on Wednesday. This has been a sturdy franchise and each subsequent feature has actually managed to out gross the previous one. I foresee a low to mid 20s three-day traditional weekend gross and low 30s for the five-day total. That forecast places the fourth Purge in fourth.

That could be a battle for the two spot as I see Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom and Incredibles 2 experiencing similar earnings in their third and fourth weekends, respectively.

And in keeping with the all sequels/prequels theme, Sicario: Day of the Soldado should round out the top five. Here are my projections for the high-five:

1. Ant–Man and the Wasp

Predicted Gross: $86.4 million

2. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom

Predicted Gross: $28.2 million

3. Incredibles 2 

Predicted Gross: $27.8 million

4. The First Purge

Predicted Gross: $22.8 million (Friday to Sunday), $31.4 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

5. Sicario: Day of the Soldado

Predicted Gross: $10.1 million

Box Office Results (June 29-July 1)

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom had no trouble ruling the box office for a second weekend with $60.9 million in receipts (in line with my $62.1 million estimate). The dino sequel’s ten-day tally stands at $265 million.

Incredibles 2 continued its remarkable run in second with $46.4 million (I was lower at $42.8 million) for $440 million overall. The Pixar sequel is already the 2nd highest grossing picture from the studio and it should shortly surpass the $486 million earned by Finding Dory to become #1.

The good news for sequels kept on coming as Sicario: Day of the Soldado performed on the very high-end of expectations with $19 million, well exceeding my $13.8 million prediction.

Basketball comedy Uncle Drew opened in fourth with $15.2 million, just below my $16.4 million estimate. This debut was pretty much right in line with its tracking.

Ocean’s 8 rounded out the top five and continued its meager decline from week to week. It grossed $8.3 million (topping my $7 million projection) for $115 million total.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: June 29-July 1

The basketball themed comedy Uncle Drew and crime thriller sequel Sicario: Day of the Soldado debut in theaters this weekend and they could battle it out for the third spot behind returning blockbusters Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom and Incredibles 2. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the two newbies right here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/06/19/uncle-drew-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/06/19/sicario-day-of-the-soldado-box-office-prediction/

Of the two newcomers, I am giving Drew the slight edge over Sicario. I also believe that if one of them over performs my estimate, it will be the former. My low to mid teens projections on both means Jurassic and Incredibles should easily maintain their 1-2 slots on the charts.

Kingdom came in on the higher end of expectations this weekend (more on that below) and now we move to how far it will drop. Its predecessor dipped just 49% in its sophomore frame after its (at the time) record-breaking $208 million opening. Kingdom should fall farther and I foresee a mid-high 50s decline.

The percentage drop for Incredibles 2 was more pronounced than I projected in weekend #2 and that should subside a bit this weekend (I’ll say 46%).

The women of Ocean’s 8 should round out the top five. And with that, those 5 estimates for the frame ahead:

1. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom

Predicted Gross: $62.1 million

2. Incredibles 2

Predicted Gross: $42.8 million

3. Uncle Drew

Predicted Gross: $16.4 million

4. Sicario: Day of the Soldado

Predicted Gross: $13.8 million

5. Ocean’s 8

Predicted Gross: $7 million

Box Office Results (June 22-24)

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom easily ruled the box office grossing $148 million out of the gate. I was a bit lower at $140.4 million. The dino sequel, as mentioned, performed on the higher end of expectations while earning $60 million less for its start than Jurassic World in 2015. Its debut gives it the fourth largest in 2018 behind Avengers: Infinity War, Black Panther, and Incredibles 2.

Speaking of Incredibles 2, it fell to second with $80.3 million and didn’t reach my forecast of $94.9 million. Its two-week total sits at an incredible $349 million.

Ocean’s 8 held up nicely in third with $11.5 million to bring its tally to a cool $100 million. I was a tad lower at $9.8 million.

Tag was fourth with $8.2 million (I said $7.7 million) for $30 million in two weeks.

Deadpool 2 took the five-spot with $5.2 million (I said $4.9 million) to hit the triple century mark at $304 million.

Solo: A Star Wars Story was sixth at $4.5 million (I said $5.4 million) for $202 million overall.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: June 22-24

There’s only one new wide release this weekend, but it’s a big one as Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom stomps into multiplexes. The sequel to the 2015 record breaker hopes to hold onto a large chunk of its predecessor’s audience. You can peruse my detailed prediction post here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/06/12/jurassic-world-fallen-kingdom-box-office-prediction/

Jurassic World took in an astonishing $208 million three summers ago (which set the opening weekend record until Star Wars: The Force Awakens snatched it away six months later). Kingdom is not expected to match that performance. My estimate has decreased from an initial prediction of just over $155 million last week to just over $140 million.

Incredibles 2 broke its own records this past weekend by smashing the all-time animated feature debut (more on that below). With an A+ Cinemascore grade, the sequel to the 2004 Pixar superhero tale has turned into quite the event film. How much it dips in weekend #2 is an intriguing question. Looking at past sequels from the studio, 2010’s Toy Story 3 and 2016’s Finding Dory (the previous animated record holder) both fell 46%. Last summer’s Cars 3, which was a rare Pixar disappointment, fell a steeper 55%. It’s a legit question as to how front loaded Incredibles 2 is and whether it had a must-see factor in weekend #1. That said, repeat business could be strong even with the considerable dino competition. I’ll project a 48% drop, similar to 2017’s Beauty and the Beast. 

Kingdom and Incredibles 2 will surely dominate the charts this weekend as Ocean’s 8 and Tag should be third and fourth, respectively. The five-spot could be a battle between Solo and Deadpool 2 and I’ll give Han a slight edge. And with that, my top 6 predictions for the frame ahead:

1. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom

Predicted Gross: $140.4 million

2. Incredibles 2

Predicted Gross: $94.9 million

3. Ocean’s 8

Predicted Gross: $9.8 million

4. Tag

Predicted Gross: $7.7 million

5. Solo: A Star Wars Story

Predicted Gross: $5.4 million

6. Deadpool 2

Predicted Gross: $4.9 million

Box Office Results (June 15-17)

As mentioned, Incredibles 2 was indeed incredible this weekend as it obliterated the all-time animated feature record. The well-reviewed sequel took in $182.6 million, smashing the numbers of Finding Dory by nearly $50 million. That figure is good for the 8th largest domestic debut in history and that ranks third for 2018 (behind Marvel behemoths Avengers: Infinity War and Black Panther). It, um, did a little better than my $138.1 million forecast… oops.

Ocean’s 8 was second in its sophomore outing with $18.9 million, coming in below my $21.2 million estimate. The heist caper has made $78 million thus far.

Newcomer comedy Tag was third with $14.9 million, faring slightly better than my $13.4 million projection. The Warner Bros pic performed right in line with expectations.

Solo: A Star Wars Story placed fourth with $10 million (above my $8.4 million prediction) for $193 million total.

Deadpool 2 rounded out the top five with $8.6 million (I said $8.2 million) for $294 million overall.

Superfly debuted in sixth with $6.8 million and $9 million since its Wednesday roll out, managing to outpace my respective calls of $5.3 million and $7.2 million. I’d look for the crime remake to fade quickly.

Hereditary was seventh and it held up well for a horror release with $6.8 million (I said $6.3 million) to bring its two-week earnings to $27 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: June 15-17

Pixar should easily rule the weekend and it may do so in record-breaking fashion as Incredibles 2 debuts. We also have the openings of comedy Tag and action remake Superfly. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the three of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/06/05/incredibles-2-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/06/05/tag-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/06/07/superfly-box-office-prediction/

The computer animated superhero sequel arrives nearly 14 years ago after The Incredibles, but anticipation appears sky-high as part 2 looks to set a personal best for the massively successful studio. In order to accomplish that, Incredibles 2 would need to outdo the $135 million achieved out of the gate by Finding Dory two summers ago. My estimate gets it there by just over $3 million.

Tag could potentially serve as decent counter programming, but I’m not quite sold that it breaks out in a significant way. My lower teens projection places it firmly in third behind the sophomore weekend of Ocean’s 8 (which I see losing close to half its audience in weekend #2).

The 4-7 slots could be interesting to watch. One question mark is how Hereditary performs. The horror pic was a hit with critics and easily set an opening weekend record for studio A24. However, its Cinemascore audience grade was a dismal D+. That could mean a hefty sophomore decline. On the other hand, A24’s The Witch was saddled with a C- Cinemascore score and dropped just 42% in its second outing. I have Hereditary dropping over 50% and that should put it in 6th and that would be ahead of Superfly (as my prediction for it has steadily declined since my original post last week). As a reminder, Superfly debuts on Wednesday. That means the 4-5 spots should belong to Solo and Deadpool 2 (and it could be a dead heat between them).

And with that, let’s make it a top 7 projections for the weekend ahead:

1. Incredibles 2

Predicted Gross: $138.1 million

2. Ocean’s 8

Predicted Gross: $21.2 million

3. Tag

Predicted Gross: $13.4 million

4. Solo: A Star Wars Story

Predicted Gross: $8.4 million

5. Deadpool 2

Predicted Gross: $8.2 million

6. Hereditary

Predicted Gross: $6.3 million

7. Superfly

Predicted Gross: $5.3 million (Friday to Sunday), $7.2 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

Box Office Results (June 8-10)

Ocean’s 8 got off to a healthy start and came in right in line with most expectations. The female led heist caper achieved the best debut of the franchise with $41.6 million. I was close with $42.6 million.

Solo: A Star Wars Story dropped to second with $15.7 million compared to my $14.3 million estimate. The three-week total is $176 million.

Deadpool 2 was third with $14.1 million (I said $13.2 million) to bring its four-week tally to $279 million.

Hereditary opened on the higher end of expectations in fourth with $13.5 million, topping my $10.2 million estimate. As mentioned, its negative audience reaction could serve as a hindrance for long-term viability.

Avengers: Infinity War rounded out the top 5 with $7.2 million (I said $6.7 million). The Marvel juggernaut is up to $655 million.

Adrift was sixth with $5.2 million and I was a touch higher at $6.1 million. The Shailene Woodley sailing drama has made $21 million in two weeks.

Finally, Hotel Artemis failed to generate many check-ins, opening in 8th place with $3.2 million (below my take of $5 million).

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: June 8-10

A trio of new titles open wide at the box office this weekend as the unremarkable two-week reign of Solo: A Star Wars Story looks to close. They are the reboot of heist caper franchise Ocean’s 8 with Sandra Bullock and other notable actresses, critically acclaimed horror pic Hereditary, and crime thriller Hotel Artemis. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/05/30/oceans-8-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/05/30/hereditary-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/05/30/hotel-artemis-box-office-prediction/

My low 40s opening for Ocean’s 8 easily puts it in the #1 spot. That estimate gives it the largest debut for the franchise that’s been dormant for over a decade when George Clooney, Matt Damon, Brad Pitt, and others had their trilogy.

The biggest question mark of the weekend to me is undoubtedly Hereditary. Reviews have been terrific, but critical praise doesn’t always equate to major dollars for this genre. Two similarly heralded entries from the same studio – The Witch and It Comes at Night – made less than $10 million out of the gate. Hereditary could potentially suffer the same fate, but I’ve got it pegged to manage low double digits. If the pic over performs, it could nab the #2 spot. If it hits in the range I’m projecting, it would be fourth behind Solo and Deadpool 2. 

Adrift premiered right in line with my expectations and it may find itself in a close race with Avengers: Infinity War for the fifth slot. I’m giving the superheroes an edge.

As for Hotel Artemis, I’m not expecting much and my forecast has gone from $7.7 million to now $5 million over the course of the last week. That number puts it outside the top five.

And with that, my top 6 projections for the weekend ahead:

1. Ocean’s 8

Predicted Gross: $42.6 million

2. Solo: A Star Wars Story

Predicted Gross: $14.3 million

3. Deadpool 2

Predicted Gross: $13.2 million

4. Hereditary

Predicted Gross: $10.2 million

5. Avengers: Infinity War

Predicted Gross: $6.7 million

6. Adrift

Predicted Gross: $6.1 million

Box Office Results (June 1-3) 

All eyes were on how Solo: A Star Wars Story would perform in its second weekend after a majorly lackluster premiere. The verdict? Not good. The Star Wars stand-alone fell a precipitous 65% to $29.3 million, well behind my $37.3 million estimate. The two-week tally stands at $148 million.

Deadpool 2 was second with $23.1 million in weekend #3, topping my $20.9 million projection for $254 million total.

Newcomer Adrift was right in line with my take – placing third at $11.6 million (I said $11.7 million).

Avengers: Infinity War was fourth with $10.5 million, ahead of my $8.6 million projection for $643 million in its considerable coffers.

Book Club rounded out the top five and I didn’t have it in there. It earned $7 million and sits at $47 million overall.

Blumhouse’s Upgrade exceeded my prediction with $4.6 million. I was lower at $2.8 million. The well reviewed sci-fi horror flick’s number is pretty decent considering its meager budget and low 1400 plus theater count.

Last and indeed least, Johnny Knoxville’s Action Point was a complete dud coming in at 9th place with a measly $2.3 million (well below my $6.6 million guesstimate). I wrote about its failure yesterday here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/06/02/the-fade-of-a-jackass/

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: June 1-3

The post Memorial Day weekend gives us a trio of vowel led titles as romantic disaster drama Adrift with Shailene Woodley, Johnny Knoxville comedy Action Point, and Blumhouse horror pic Upgrade all debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/05/24/adrift-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/05/23/action-point-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/05/24/upgrade-box-office-prediction/

I don’t expect any of the newbies to exactly set the box office ablaze, but have Adrift getting over Action Point (if for nothing else than the higher theater count). My meager $2.8 estimate for Upgrade leaves it far outside the top 5.

The top two (and perhaps 3) should remain unchanged, but the real story of the weekend may be how far Solo: A Star Wars Story drops. It shouldn’t have trouble remaining #1, but as discussed in my post from last night, it came in considerably below expectations:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/05/28/solo-a-star-wars-letdown/

Press chatter since the undeniably disappointing premiere of Solo has solely focused on just that and it could cause the film to take a hefty dip in its sophomore frame. In addition, tent pole features opening over the Memorial weekend typically experience large declines anyway. Last year’s Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales fell 64%. I believe a better comp might be Indiana Jones and the Crystal Skull from 10 years ago. It made $100 million over the three-day portion of the holiday weekend and dipped 55% in weekend #2. That seems more feasible for Solo, however if it fell over 60% it wouldn’t exactly be shocking.

Deadpool 2 should remain in second place while Avengers: Infinity War could find itself locked in battle for third with Adrift or possibly Action Point. I’m giving Adrift an edge.

And with that, my top 5 projections for the beginning of June:

1. Solo: A Star Wars Story

Predicted Gross: $37.3 million

2. Deadpool 2

Predicted Gross: $20.9 million

3. Adrift

Predicted Gross: $11.7 million

4. Avengers: Infinity War

Predicted Gross: $8.6 million

5. Action Point

Predicted Gross: $6.6 million

Box Office Results (May 25-28)

As discussed already, Solo: A Star Wars Story came in far below expectations with $103 million over the four-day weekend. That’s, ahem, a bit under my forecast of $151.3 million. Just days ago, the stand-alone Star Wars entry was a strong candidate to break the previous $139 million Memorial Day record held by Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End. It ended up as only the 7th highest holiday haul.

Deadpool 2 dropped to second with $53.8 million, in line with my $55.2 million prediction for a two-week total of $218 million.

Avengers: Infinity War was third at $22.4 million (I was right there at $22.5 million) for $627 million overall.

Book Club was fourth with $13.1 million in its second weekend, topping my $11.7 million projection for $35 million total. The comedy is scoring with a female and older audience and turning into a nice midsize summer performer.

Life of the Party rounded out the top five with $6.8 million, topping my $5.3 million prediction. It’s made $40 million total.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: May 25-28

It’s Memorial Day weekend at the box office and Solo: A Star Wars Story is the solo new release as it looks to dominate the holiday charts. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/05/15/solo-a-star-wars-story-box-office-prediction/

I believe Solo will manage to just top $150 million for the four-day frame and that would make it the largest Memorial Day opening of all time (topping the $139 million earned by Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End in 2007).

The holiday weekend often means small declines for holdovers and I believe that will hold true such titles as Avengers: Infinity War, Book Club, and Life of the Party. That may not apply to Deadpool 2, which will certainly be in second place. The Ryan Reynolds sequel seems likely to lose over 50% of its opening crowd – perhaps even 55% or so.

And with that, my take on the weekend’s top five (keep in mind these are Friday to Monday estimates):

1. Solo: A Star Wars Story

Predicted Gross: $151.3 million

2. Deadpool 2

Predicted Gross: $55.2 million

3. Avengers: Infinity War

Predicted Gross: $22.5 million

4. Book Club

Predicted Gross: $11.7 million

5. Life of the Party

Predicted Gross: $5.3 million

Box Office Results (May 18-20)

Deadpool 2 easily dominated the weekend, but did so with a little less dollars than most projections include mine. The superhero sequel earned $125.5 million, under my $137.4 million prediction. That’s good for the second biggest R rated debut of all time behind… Deadpool from 2016. Considering its reported $110 million budget, that’s still a hefty haul even though many figured it might manage to just top the original.

Avengers: Infinity War dropped to second after three weeks at #1 with $29.4 million (in line with my $30.8 million projection) for $595 million overall.

Book Club experienced a nice debut in third with $13.5 million, ahead of my $10.3 million estimate. I look for this to have perhaps the smallest drop of any feature over Memorial Day.

Life of the Party was fourth with $7.6 million (I said $8.4 million) for $30 million total.

Breaking In rounded out the top five at $6.8 million (I said $7.2 million) for $29 million in its two weeks.

Finally, family feature Show Dogs failed to bring in its audience with just $6 million. I was higher at $7.9 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

 

Box Office Predictions: May 18-20

Four titles enter the marketplace this weekend with the big-ticket item being Deadpool 2. It should easily achieve the third highest opening so far in 2018 (behind MCU juggernauts Avengers: Infinity War and Black Panther) and knock Infinity from its three-week perch atop the charts. We also have comedy Book Club, family pic Show Dogs, and documentary Pope Francis: A Man of His Word debuting. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/05/09/deadpool-2-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/05/09/book-club-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/05/10/show-dogs-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/05/13/pope-francis-a-man-of-his-word-box-office-prediction/

As stated, the return of Ryan Reynolds and his very R-rated superhero should dominate. I have the sequel to the 2016 mega-hit performing slightly over its predecessor, which stormed out of the gate with $132 million in February of 2016. Avengers should drop to second and lose around 50% of its audience.

Book Club, if it manages to reach my high single digits forecast, could place third if Life of the Party loses 50% or more of its audience (which I believe it will). Show Dogs has some sleeper potential, but my projection puts it in a potential dogfight with the second weekend of Breaking In. 

The Pope documentary is debuting on a low 350 screens. While it should have a solid per screen average, my $2.3 estimate puts it towards the lower end of the top ten. And with that, here are my top 6 projections for the weekend:

1. Deadpool 2

Predicted Gross: $137.4 million

2. Avengers: Infinity War

Predicted Gross: $30.8 million

3. Book Club

Predicted Gross: $10.3 million

4. Life of the Party

Predicted Gross: $8.4 million

5. Show Dogs

Predicted Gross: $7.9 million

6. Breaking In

Predicted Gross: $7.2 million

Box Office Results (May 11-13)

Avengers: Infinity War continued its domination in weekend #3 with $62 million (a bit more than my $59.7 million prediction) to bring its gargantuan tally to $548 million. That’s the fourth highest third frame of all time (behind Star Wars: The Force Awakens, Avatar, and Black Panther). The MCU phenomenon is in 8th place already on the all-time domestic earners list.

Melissa McCarthy experienced a box office disappointment as Life of the Party was second with $17.8 million, under my $19.4 million forecast. It’s her lowest opener so far for a starring vehicle ever since she broke out in 2011 with Bridesmaids. 

The Gabrielle Union thriller Breaking In performed well, debuting in third with $17.6 million. My prediction? $17.6 million! The pic is likely to experience a pretty hefty drop this weekend.

Overboard held up quite impressively in its sophomore frame (perhaps thanks to a Mother’s Day bump) with $9.8 million, easily outpacing my $6.2 million projection. The comedy has earned $30 million so far.

A Quiet Place rounded out the top five with $6.4 million (I was a tad lower at $5.3 million) to bring its total gross to $169 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: May 11-13

Two new titles look to place second and third this weekend as Avengers: Infinity War should continue to dominate the charts. They are the Melissa McCarthy back to college comedy Life of the Party and Gabrielle Union thriller Breaking In. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on that pair here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/05/02/life-of-the-party-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/05/02/breaking-in-box-office-prediction/

My high teens estimate for Party indeed puts it in the runner-up position with Breaking in mid to high teens for third. I’ve got Avengers grossing just under $60 million in its third frame to easily stay #1 with holdovers Overboard and A Quiet Place rounding out the top five.

And with that, my estimates for the weekend ahead:

1. Avengers: Infinity War

Predicted Gross: $59.7 million

2. Life of the Party

Predicted Gross: $19.4 million

3. Breaking In

Predicted Gross: $17.6 million

4. Overboard

Predicted Gross: $6.2 million

5. A Quiet Place

Predicted Gross: $5.3 million

Box Office Results (May 4–6)

Avengers: Infinity War continued its chart domination by scoring the second best second weekend ever at $114.7 million, a bit under my $118.1 million forecast. The Marvel juggernaut has amassed $453 million thus far.

Overboard had a healthy opening in second with $14.7 million, topping my $11.8 million estimate. I look for the comedy to have a rather hefty drop this coming weekend.

A Quiet Place was third at $7.7 million (I said $7.3 million) to bring its tally to $160 million.

I Feel Pretty was fourth with $5 million (I was close at $5.2 million) for $37 million overall.

Rampage was fifth and I incorrectly had it outside the top 5. It grossed $4.6 million and has made $84 million total.

Tully with Charlize Theron opened meekly in sixth with $3.2 million. I gave it a bit too much credit and had it at $5 million.

Finally, Bad Samaritan bombed in 11th place with just $1.7 million, a tad below my $2.1 million projection.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: May 4-6

It’s gonna by May at the box office and there’s a trio of newcomers hitting screens: rom com remake Overboard with Eugenio Derbez and Anna Faris, critically acclaimed comedic drama Tully with Charlize Theron, and horror thriller Bad Samaritan. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

Overboard Box Office Prediction

Tully Box Office Prediction

Bad Samaritan Box Office Prediction

I have none of the trio of newcomers even breaking $10 million. Overboard should lead the pack and is likely to place second. Tully could get a 4th or 5th place showing, coming in behind A Quiet Place or a bit ahead or slightly behind I Feel Pretty. My $2.1 million estimate for Bad Samaritan leaves it outside the top 5.

This weekend will once again be all about the superheroes as Avengers: Infinity War enters its sophomore frame after its record shattering debut (more on that below). So how will Iron Man, Captain America, Thor, and so many others hold up in weekend #2? 2012’s The Avengers dropped 50% in its sophomore outing with 2015’s Avengers: Age of Ultron falling 59%. I have this dropping somewhere in between. Let’s put it at 54%. That would be #2 as far as all-time second weekends (vaulting over Black Panther), but not as high as the $149 million achieved by Force Awakens (which had the benefit of its follow-up frame falling over the Christmas holiday).

**If you’d like to read my review of Infinity War (spoiler free), it can be found here:

Avengers: Infinity War Movie Review

And with that, here’s my top 5 projections for the weekend:

1. Avengers: Infinity War

Predicted Gross: $118.1 million

2. Overboard

Predicted Gross: $11.8 million

3. A Quiet Place

Predicted Gross: $7.3 million

4. I Feel Pretty

Predicted Gross: $5.2 million

5. Tully

Predicted Gross: $5 million

Box Office Results (April 27-29)

Avengers: Infinity War made history at the box office this weekend. Not only did the Marvel gathering of its heroes have the biggest domestic debut of all time – it did so rather easily. War amassed $257.6 million, besting the previous high mark set by 2015’s Star Wars: The Force Awakens at $247.9 million. It blasted past my projection of $240.2 million. Will the fourth Avengers title coming in one year top this one? Time shall tell. One thing is for sure – Marvel/Disney is having an unbelievable year with this and Black Panther. 

A Quiet Place took the runner-up spot with $11 million, in line with my $11.8 million prediction for $148 million overall.

I Feel Pretty stayed in third place in weekend #2 with $8.1 million (I was close with $7.6 million) for a $29 million tally.

Rampage placed fourth with $7.2 million, below my $9.1 million forecast for a total of $78 million.

I gave Super Troopers 2 too much credit and had it in the top 5 at $5.6 million. It came in lower with $3.7 million for sixth place and has made $22 million thus far.

The aforementioned Black Panther ended up rounding out the top five with $4.7 million to bring its gross to $688 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…