Box Office Predictions: June 15-17

Pixar should easily rule the weekend and it may do so in record-breaking fashion as Incredibles 2 debuts. We also have the openings of comedy Tag and action remake Superfly. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the three of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/06/05/incredibles-2-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/06/05/tag-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/06/07/superfly-box-office-prediction/

The computer animated superhero sequel arrives nearly 14 years ago after The Incredibles, but anticipation appears sky-high as part 2 looks to set a personal best for the massively successful studio. In order to accomplish that, Incredibles 2 would need to outdo the $135 million achieved out of the gate by Finding Dory two summers ago. My estimate gets it there by just over $3 million.

Tag could potentially serve as decent counter programming, but I’m not quite sold that it breaks out in a significant way. My lower teens projection places it firmly in third behind the sophomore weekend of Ocean’s 8 (which I see losing close to half its audience in weekend #2).

The 4-7 slots could be interesting to watch. One question mark is how Hereditary performs. The horror pic was a hit with critics and easily set an opening weekend record for studio A24. However, its Cinemascore audience grade was a dismal D+. That could mean a hefty sophomore decline. On the other hand, A24’s The Witch was saddled with a C- Cinemascore score and dropped just 42% in its second outing. I have Hereditary dropping over 50% and that should put it in 6th and that would be ahead of Superfly (as my prediction for it has steadily declined since my original post last week). As a reminder, Superfly debuts on Wednesday. That means the 4-5 spots should belong to Solo and Deadpool 2 (and it could be a dead heat between them).

And with that, let’s make it a top 7 projections for the weekend ahead:

1. Incredibles 2

Predicted Gross: $138.1 million

2. Ocean’s 8

Predicted Gross: $21.2 million

3. Tag

Predicted Gross: $13.4 million

4. Solo: A Star Wars Story

Predicted Gross: $8.4 million

5. Deadpool 2

Predicted Gross: $8.2 million

6. Hereditary

Predicted Gross: $6.3 million

7. Superfly

Predicted Gross: $5.3 million (Friday to Sunday), $7.2 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

Box Office Results (June 8-10)

Ocean’s 8 got off to a healthy start and came in right in line with most expectations. The female led heist caper achieved the best debut of the franchise with $41.6 million. I was close with $42.6 million.

Solo: A Star Wars Story dropped to second with $15.7 million compared to my $14.3 million estimate. The three-week total is $176 million.

Deadpool 2 was third with $14.1 million (I said $13.2 million) to bring its four-week tally to $279 million.

Hereditary opened on the higher end of expectations in fourth with $13.5 million, topping my $10.2 million estimate. As mentioned, its negative audience reaction could serve as a hindrance for long-term viability.

Avengers: Infinity War rounded out the top 5 with $7.2 million (I said $6.7 million). The Marvel juggernaut is up to $655 million.

Adrift was sixth with $5.2 million and I was a touch higher at $6.1 million. The Shailene Woodley sailing drama has made $21 million in two weeks.

Finally, Hotel Artemis failed to generate many check-ins, opening in 8th place with $3.2 million (below my take of $5 million).

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

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