Box Office Predictions: July 13-15

Adam Sandler’s animated sequel Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation and Dwayne Johnson’s action pic Skyscraper debut this weekend in what could be an interesting battle for #1 and especially #2 at the box office. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

My low 40s estimate for Transylvania puts it in the pole position to top the charts. However, if it were to come in under expectations  and not reach the numbers of its predecessors, the door could be open for Ant-Man and the Wasp (in its sophomore frame) or Skyscraper to be a spoiler. It’s dangerous to underestimate the drawing potency of Johnson, but my low 30s projection for his latest puts Skyscraper in a razor-thin battle for #2 with Marvel’s latest.

Incredibles 2 and Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom should be 4th and 5th.

And with that, my projections for the weekend’s top 5:

1. Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation

Predicted Gross: $43.6 million

2. Ant-Man and the Wasp

Predicted Gross: $33.4 million

3. Skyscraper

Predicted Gross: $33.2 million

4. Incredibles 2

Predicted Gross: $16.6 million

5. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom

Predicted Gross: $14.2 million

Box Office Results (July 6-8) 

The Marvel Cinematic Universe is 20 for 20 as far as #1 openers as Ant-Man and the Wasp buzzed in with $75.8 million, falling under my $86.4 million projection. That debut is on the lower end of expectations for the sequel and ranks 16th out of 20 for MCU openers. That said, it still managed to gross nearly $20 million more than its 2015 predecessor for its start. I expect it to fall in the mid 50s in weekend #2, creating a photo finish with Skyscraper for the runner-up spot to Transylvania. 

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom fell to second after two weeks on top with $28.6 million (I was close at $28.2 million) to brings it tally to $333 million.

Incredibles 2 was close behind in third with $28.4 million (I said $27.8 million) as the Pixar phenom crossed the $500 million mark at $503 million. In just four weeks, it is already the studio’s largest earner surpassing Finding Dory. 

The First Purge was fourth and continued the franchise’s run of high grosses compared to their low budgets. The Blumhouse horror pic took in $17.3 million over the Friday to Sunday portion of the weekend compared to my $22.8 million estimate. It opened on Wednesday and has taken in $31.2 million for the five-day overall. I was much closer on that figure with my $31.4 million prediction.

Sicario: Day of the Soldado took quite a hit in its second weekend. It was fifth after dropping 60% to $7.6 million (I was higher with $10.1 million). It’s total is $35 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

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