Box Office Predictions: June 22-24

There’s only one new wide release this weekend, but it’s a big one as Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom stomps into multiplexes. The sequel to the 2015 record breaker hopes to hold onto a large chunk of its predecessor’s audience. You can peruse my detailed prediction post here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/06/12/jurassic-world-fallen-kingdom-box-office-prediction/

Jurassic World took in an astonishing $208 million three summers ago (which set the opening weekend record until Star Wars: The Force Awakens snatched it away six months later). Kingdom is not expected to match that performance. My estimate has decreased from an initial prediction of just over $155 million last week to just over $140 million.

Incredibles 2 broke its own records this past weekend by smashing the all-time animated feature debut (more on that below). With an A+ Cinemascore grade, the sequel to the 2004 Pixar superhero tale has turned into quite the event film. How much it dips in weekend #2 is an intriguing question. Looking at past sequels from the studio, 2010’s Toy Story 3 and 2016’s Finding Dory (the previous animated record holder) both fell 46%. Last summer’s Cars 3, which was a rare Pixar disappointment, fell a steeper 55%. It’s a legit question as to how front loaded Incredibles 2 is and whether it had a must-see factor in weekend #1. That said, repeat business could be strong even with the considerable dino competition. I’ll project a 48% drop, similar to 2017’s Beauty and the Beast. 

Kingdom and Incredibles 2 will surely dominate the charts this weekend as Ocean’s 8 and Tag should be third and fourth, respectively. The five-spot could be a battle between Solo and Deadpool 2 and I’ll give Han a slight edge. And with that, my top 6 predictions for the frame ahead:

1. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom

Predicted Gross: $140.4 million

2. Incredibles 2

Predicted Gross: $94.9 million

3. Ocean’s 8

Predicted Gross: $9.8 million

4. Tag

Predicted Gross: $7.7 million

5. Solo: A Star Wars Story

Predicted Gross: $5.4 million

6. Deadpool 2

Predicted Gross: $4.9 million

Box Office Results (June 15-17)

As mentioned, Incredibles 2 was indeed incredible this weekend as it obliterated the all-time animated feature record. The well-reviewed sequel took in $182.6 million, smashing the numbers of Finding Dory by nearly $50 million. That figure is good for the 8th largest domestic debut in history and that ranks third for 2018 (behind Marvel behemoths Avengers: Infinity War and Black Panther). It, um, did a little better than my $138.1 million forecast… oops.

Ocean’s 8 was second in its sophomore outing with $18.9 million, coming in below my $21.2 million estimate. The heist caper has made $78 million thus far.

Newcomer comedy Tag was third with $14.9 million, faring slightly better than my $13.4 million projection. The Warner Bros pic performed right in line with expectations.

Solo: A Star Wars Story placed fourth with $10 million (above my $8.4 million prediction) for $193 million total.

Deadpool 2 rounded out the top five with $8.6 million (I said $8.2 million) for $294 million overall.

Superfly debuted in sixth with $6.8 million and $9 million since its Wednesday roll out, managing to outpace my respective calls of $5.3 million and $7.2 million. I’d look for the crime remake to fade quickly.

Hereditary was seventh and it held up well for a horror release with $6.8 million (I said $6.3 million) to bring its two-week earnings to $27 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

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