Tag: Box Office Results

Box Office Predictions: September 21-23

The family fantasy film The House with a Clock in Its Walls looks to get its hands on the #1 spot at the box office this weekend as it opens alongside the Michael Moore political doc Fahrenheit 11/9 and ensemble drama Life Itself. If you missed my detailed prediction posts on that trio, you can find them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/09/11/the-house-with-a-clock-in-its-walls-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/09/15/fahrenheit-11-9-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/09/15/life-itself-box-office-prediction/

My low to mid 20s forecast for Clock should be more than enough for it to top the charts. The rest of the top 5 could be a bit more interesting. The Predator had a so-so debut and I look for it to experience a pretty hefty drop. Same goes for The Nun in its third weekend. A Simple Favor, on the other hand, could experience a solid hold in its sophomore frame.

As for the newcomers, my measly $3.8 million projection for Life Itself leaves it outside the top 5 while Fahrenheit ($5 million estimate) could battle for Crazy Rich Asians for that five-spot. And with that, my take on the weekend ahead:

1. The House with a Clock In Its Walls

Predicted Gross: $23.2 million

2. A Simple Favor 

Predicted Gross: $10.6 million

3. The Predator

Predicted Gross: $10 million

4. The Nun

Predicted Gross: $8.4 million

5. Crazy Rich Asians

Predicted Gross: $5.9 million

Box Office Results (September 14-16)

The Predator opening in first place was never really in doubt, but its $24.6 million debut didn’t impress much. It came in a bit under my $27.4 million estimate. Mostly negative reviews didn’t help and I look for this to experience a decline of over 50% this coming weekend.

After posting a franchise best haul for the Conjuring Cinematic Universe, The Nun saw the largest second weekend drop (66%) to $18.2 million (I was a little higher at $19.8 million). The two-week tally stands at $85 million.

Returns were decent for A Simple Favor as it opened in third with $16 million (a bit under my $17.9 million prediction). I see it experiencing the best hold for next weekend and having a real chance at rising to second place (considering the potential dips for The Predator and The Nun).

White Boy Rick premiered in fourth place with an unremarkable $8.8 million, on pace with my $8.7 million estimate. The crime drama also suffered from mixed reviews and it couldn’t manage to get older moviegoers interested.

Crazy Rich Asians rounded out the top five with $8.6 million (I said $8.2 million) to bring its total to $149 million.

Finally, faith-based sequel Unbroken: Path to Redemption gained no traction with audiences earning just $2.2 million for 10th place (I said $2.5 million).

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: September 14-16

A quartet of new titles make their way to multiplexes this weekend: franchise reboot The Predator, Anna Kendrick/Blake Lively thriller A Simple Favor, crime drama White Boy Rick with Matthew McConaughey, and “spiritual sequel” Unbroken: Path to Redemption. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/09/05/the-predator-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/09/05/a-simple-favor-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/09/06/white-boy-rick-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/09/06/unbroken-path-to-redemption-box-office-prediction/

The Predator should have little trouble hitting the top spot, but I do have it on the lower end of the expectation range in the mid to high 20s.

The Nun got off a terrific start (more on that below) and I do expect a rather large decline due to both front loaded business and fairly poor word of mouth (a C Cinemascore grade). A drop in the low to mid 60s is feasible here and horror pics often have significant declines anyway.

A Simple Favor is intriguing. I believe it should place third and I have it managing to reach its intended female audience with a healthy showing at the top end of estimates.

White Boy Rick has generated zero awards buzz after its Telluride premiere and I’m having trouble seeing it hit double digits. That would put it in fourth.

Even though Peppermint just outdid Crazy Rich Asians for the #2 spot this past weekend, I expect the latter to have a smaller decline and get the five-spot.

As for Unbroken: Path to Redemption, my lowly $2.5 million forecast puts it well outside the top 5.

And with that, my top 5 estimates for the weekend:

1. The Predator

Predicted Gross: $27.4 million

2. The Nun

Predicted Gross: $19.8 million

3. A Simple Favor

Predicted Gross: $17.9 million

4. White Boy Rick

Predicted Gross: $8.7 million

5. Crazy Rich Asians

Predicted Gross: $8.2 million

Box Office Results (September 7-9)

Warner Bros was in full sister act level celebration mode this weekend as The Nun conquered the charts. The fifth entry in the Conjuring Cinematic Universe experienced the best debut of the franchise with $53.8 million compared to my $45.4 million projection. That’s good for the second highest September opening of all time behind last year’s It.

In a bit of a surprise, Jennifer Garner’s revenge tale Peppermint was second with a decent $13.4 million, topping my $11.8 million prediction. Overcoming poor reviews, the film reached the upper end of its projections. I see it dipping around 50% next weekend and falling out of the top five.

The three-week reign of Crazy Rich Asians came to an end as it placed third with $13.1 million (I said $14.2 million) for $135 million total.

The Meg was fourth with $6 million compared to my $5.4 million take and the shark tale has amassed $131 million.

Searching rounded out the top five with $4.5 million (in line with my $4.2 million prediction) for $14 million overall.

Finally, faith-based drama God Bless the Broken Road premiered in 11th place with a weak $1.3 million. I was a bit more generous at $2.1 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: September 7-9

Blogger’s Note (09/06/18): I am making a change at #5 spot for the weekend and taking out Mission: Impossible – Fallout (still predicted at $4.1 million) and replacing it with Searching at $4.2 million.

While my attention on the blog has shifted in recent days to the many Oscar hopefuls premiering at film festivals, we still have box office predictions to consider. And there’s a trio of newcomers opening this weekend: horror pic The Nun from the Conjuring Cinematic Universe, Jennifer Garner revenge thriller Peppermint, and faith-based war drama God Bless the Broken Road. You can peruse my individual prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/08/28/the-nun-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/08/28/peppermint-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/09/02/god-bless-the-broken-road-box-office-prediction/

The Nun (with my mid 40s estimate) should have no trouble ending the three-week reign of Crazy Rich Asians atop the charts. The Conjuring franchise has been remarkably consistent in its opening weekend grosses and I expect that will continue here.

With that scary sister easily holding down the top spot, the real battle could be at #2 between Asians and Peppermint. I’ll give the former the edge by a couple million.

Summer holdovers The Meg and Mission: Impossible – Fallout should round out the top five. My lowly $2.1 million take on God Bless the Broken Road leaves it on the outside looking in.

And with that, my top 5 take on the weekend ahead:

1. The Nun

Predicted Gross: $45.4 million

2. Crazy Rich Asians

Predicted Gross: $14.2 million

3. Peppermint

Predicted Gross: $11.8 million

4. The Meg

Predicted Gross: $5.4 million

5. Searching 

Predicted Gross: $4.2 million

Box Office Results (August 31-September 3)

Crazy Rich Asians easily topped the charts for the third frame in a row with $28.5 million  over the Labor Day long holiday weekend (I was just a tad over at $30.6 million). The breakout comedy of the summer is up to $117 million thus far.

The Meg followed in second at $13.8 million (I said $14.5 million) for a tally of $123 million.

Mission: Impossible – Fallout was third with $9.3 million, in range with my $10 million projection. The sixth franchise entry stands at $206 million and is right on the doorstep at becoming the series highest domestic earner. That record is currently held by part 2 with $215 million.

Operation Finale had the biggest debut of the weekend in fourth with $7.8 million. I was close with an $8.8 million estimate. The Oscar Isaac/Ben Kingsley Nazi hunting drama has earned $9.6 million since its Wednesday opening.

The critically acclaimed computer screen set thriller Searching was close behind in fifth with $7.6 million, just ahead of my $7.1 million forecast. Counting its limited release a week prior, it’s made $8.1 million total.

I incorrectly had Christopher Robin in the top 5 but it placed 6th with $7.2 million (I said $8 million). The Winnie the Pooh tale has earned $87 million as it seems likely to eek out a $100 million gross.

A trio of newcomers all posted unimpressive results. Sci-fi family adventure Kin was 12th with $3.8 million (I was right there at $3.9 million). Mexican import Ya Veremos placed 14th at $2.2 million (I said $2.5 million). And the poorly reviewed Gothic horror effort The Little Stranger managed a piddling $496,000 for 23rd position… way under my $2.6 million guess.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: August 31-September 3

The summer box office season officially draws to a close this Labor Day weekend and there’s five new releases to consider. They are the Oscar Isaac/Ben Kingsley Nazi hunting drama Operation Finale, John Cho’s computer based thriller Searching, family sci-fi tale Kin, Gothic horror tale The Little Stranger and Mexican import Ya Veremos. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/08/21/operation-finale-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/08/14/searching-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/08/21/kin-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/08/27/the-little-stranger-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/08/27/ya-veremos-box-office-prediction/

I don’t have any of them breaking the $10 million mark for the four-day holiday weekend. I have Finale faring the best, mostly due to the fact that it’s slated to open on about 700 more screens than the critically hailed Searching.

My $3.9 million estimate for Kin, $2.6 million projection for Stranger and $2.5 million forecast for Veremos leave them outside of the top five. And even my $7.1 million prediction for Searching leaves it on the outside looking in.

The Labor Day weekend typically means that holdovers will experience increases in their grosses from the previous weekend. There is, of course, an extra day of totals to consider so that doesn’t hurt. It is not uncommon to see percentage bumps anywhere from the mid teens to high 20s and I expect that will hold true once again.

That means Crazy Rich Asians should have no trouble at all holding the top spot for the third frame in a row. Giving it an increase in the low to mid twenties seems plausible and that could it mean hits over $30 million. I suspect The Meg, Mission: Impossible – Fallout, and Christopher Robin will also experience solid weekends.

The only holdover that may fall is The Happytime Murders, which had a pretty bad debut over the weekend (more on that below).

And with that, my top 5 estimates for the long Labor Day weekend:

1. Crazy Rich Asians

Predicted Gross: $30.6 million

2. The Meg

Predicted Gross: $14.5 million

3. Mission: Impossible – Fallout

Predicted Gross: $10 million

4. Operation Finale

Predicted Gross: $8.8 million

5. Christopher Robin

Predicted Gross: $8 million

Box Office Results (August 24-26) 

Crazy Rich Asians had a magnificent hold in its sophomore weekend to easily remain #1. The comedy dropped just 6%, taking in $24.8 million (blasting past my $16.9 million estimate). The two-week total is $76 million.

The Meg was second with $12.8 million (I said $11.2 million). The shark tale crossed the century mark and stands at $105 million after three weeks.

The Happytime Murders proved American audiences were in no mood for randy puppets. The poorly reviewed pic was third with a putrid $9.5 million, falling under my $13.8 million forecast.

Mission: Impossible – Fallout was fourth with $8 million (ahead of my $6.8 million take). It’s edging close to $200 million with $193 million total.

Mile 22 rounded out the top five with $6.3 million (I said $7.5 million). The Mark Wahlberg action thriller has made a middling $25 million in its two weeks of release.

Finally, robot dog flick A.X.L. opened meekly in 10th position with $2.7 million. It did manage to edge past my $2.1 million prediction.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: August 24-26

This weekend at the box office features a battle between two very different comedies for the #1 spot: the second weekend of critically acclaimed rom com Crazy Rich Asians and the debut of dirty puppet pic The Happytime Murders. We also have the family science fiction tale A.X.L. opening. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/08/14/the-happytime-murders-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/08/14/a-x-l-box-office-prediction/

If Asians falls in the mid 30s range, it might manage to edge out Melissa McCarthy’s Murders. My estimates indicate this should be the first weekend since early February where no picture makes over $20 million as the summer season slows down.

The Meg should fall to third place with action flicks Mile 22 and Mission: Impossible – Fallout in a race for the 4 spot (I give Mile an edge).

As for A.X.L., I’m not expecting much at all and my tiny $2.1 million forecast leaves it outside the top 5. And with that, here’s those top five projections for the weekend:

1. Crazy Rich Asians

Predicted Gross: $16.9 million

2. The Happytime Murders

Predicted Gross: $13.8 million

3. The Meg

Predicted Gross: $11.2 million

4. Mile 22

Predicted Gross: $7.5 million

5. Mission: Impossible – Fallout

Predicted Gross: $6.8 million

Box Office Results (August 17-19)

Riding a wave of positive buzz and anticipation from its bestseller source material, Crazy Rich Asians had a terrific start in first place with $26.5 million for the weekend (topping my $22.5 million prediction). When factoring in its Wednesday debut, the critically praised comedy has made $35.2 million and that’s a bit above my call of $33.4 million.

The Meg dropped to second with $21.1 million, in line with my $20.3 million projection for $83 million so far.

Mark Wahlberg’s Mile 22 was a disappointment with a third place premiere at $13.7 million. I was a touch higher at $16.7 million. This definitely ranks on the lower end of the star’s action debuts.

Mission: Impossible – Fallout was fourth with $10.7 million (I said $11 million) for $181 million overall. The sixth franchise entry stands a decent shot at surpassing the $215 million made by Mission: Impossible II and becoming the series all-time domestic earner.

Alpha performed better than I figured with a fifth place start at $10.3 million. I was way lower at $5.2 million.

Christopher Robin was sixth with $8.8 million (I said $7.4 million) for $66 million. The Disney feature could come close to $100 million when all is said and done, but it may fall a little short.

BlacKkKlansman was 7th in its sophomore outing with $7.3 million (I said $7.1 million) for a total of $23 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: August 17-19

Blogger’s Note (08/14/18): On the eve of its opening, I’m upgrading my Crazy Rich Asians estimate to low 20s and mid 30s for the three and five-day. That now gives it the #1 spot.

A trio of newcomers attempt to bite into the unexpected huge performance of The Meg and it keep it from a second frame atop the charts. We have critically acclaimed rom com Crazy Rich Asians, Mark Wahlberg’s action thriller Mile 22, and Ice Age adventure Alpha. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/08/07/crazy-rich-asians-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/08/07/mile-22-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/08/07/alpha-box-office-prediction/

Let’s start with the low hanging fruit. I don’t expect much from Alpha at all and my $5.2 million projection leaves it outside of the top five.

Even if The Meg falls over 50% in its second frame, it could still maintain the top spot with a gross in the low 20s.

However, that’s if Crazy Rich Asians doesn’t manage those numbers. My estimate has steadily risen, but its Wednesday opening could prevent it from hitting #1 (I’ve got it awfully close). Mile 22 should place third in the mid teens for a so-so start.

Mission: Impossible – Fallout should drop to fourth. The five-spot could be interesting as I have Christopher Robin and BlacKkKlansman grossing roughly the same amount.

And with that, here’s my top 6 projections for the weekend ahead:

1. Crazy Rich Asians

Predicted Gross: $22.5 million (Friday to Sunday), $33.4 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

2. The Meg

Predicted Gross: $20.3 million

3. Mile 22

Predicted Gross: $16.7 million

4. Mission: Impossible – Fallout

Predicted Gross: $11 million

5. Christopher Robin

Predicted Gross: $7.4 million

6. BlacKkKlansman

Predicted Gross: $7.1 million

Box Office Results (August 10-12)

The Meg turned out to have the quite the mega opening stateside with $45.4 million, doubling (yes DOUBLING) my meager $22.7 million estimate. Never bet against sharks apparently. The shark tale performed well overseas as well, which was needed considering its reported $150 million plus budget.

Mission: Impossible – Fallout was runner-up with $19.3 million (a tad below my $21.3 million prediction) for $161 million in its three weeks of release.

Christopher Robin was third with $12.9 million compared to my $13.8 million estimate. The Disney pic has made $50 million in two weeks.

Critically reviled horror flick Slender Man was fourth, debuting to $11.3 million (a couple notches above my take of $9.1 million). Look for it (with a D- Cinemascore grade) to fade quickly.

Spike Lee’s BlacKkKlansman, with terrific reviews and awards buzz, started out strong on just over 1500 screens in fifth with $10.8 million (I said $9.6 million).

Finally, Dog Days premiered to totally unimpressive numbers in just 12th place with $2.5 million. I gave it way too much credit at $5.1 million. Woof.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: August 3-5

Blogger’s Note II (08/02/18): I am revising Christopher Robin down to $29.6 million, meaning I’m now predicting Mission: Impossible – Fallout will take the top spot.

Blogger’s Note (08/02/18): I am revising my estimate for Darkest Minds from $8.7 million down to $6.3 million, which leaves it outside the top five.

The month of August at the box office kicks off with three new releases attempting to dislodge Tom Cruise and his IMF agents from the top spot: Disney’s Christopher Robin, Mila Kunis/Kate McKinnon comedy The Spy Who Dumped Me, and Fox’s YA adaptation The Darkest Minds. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on that trio here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/07/24/christopher-robin-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/07/24/the-spy-who-dumped-me-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/07/24/the-darkest-minds-box-office-prediction/

Paramount is celebrating the franchise best opening yet with Mission: Impossible – Fallout and I’m anticipating a second weekend drop in the mid 40s range. That should put it in an extremely tight battle with Winnie the Pooh and company, which I have premiering in the mid 30s (though it could go higher).

The #3 spot should go to Spy, which I have slated for a mid teens start. Both Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again and The Equalizer 2 dipped more harshly in their sophomore frames than I estimated. Therefore my high double digits projection for The Darkest Mind could be enough for it to nab #4 (though it could be neck and neck with Mamma).

And with that, my top 5 predictions for the weekend ahead:

1. Mission: Impossible – Fallout

Predicted Gross: $32 million

2. Christopher Robin

Predicted Gross: $29.6 million

3. The Spy Who Dumped Me

Predicted Gross: $15.3 million

4. Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again

Predicted Gross: $8.3 million

5. Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation

Predicted Gross: $6.9 million

Box Office Results (July 27-29) 

22 years after part 1, Tom Cruise achieved his highest opening in the Mission: Impossible franchise as Fallout took in $61.2 million (a touch below my $63.6 million estimate). Bolstered by terrific reviews, the sixth entry in the spy saga managed to outdo previous record holder Mission: Impossible II‘s $57 million way back in 2000. It’s safe to say Mr. Cruise is planning his stunts for a seventh pic.

Holdovers all experienced harsher declines that I figured. Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again remained in second place with $15.1 million (I said $19.8 million) to bring its two-week tally to $70 million.

Last week’s champ The Equalizer 2 was third with $14 million compared to my $17.1 million projection. The Denzel Washington sequel fell a mighty 61% in its sophomore outing.

Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation was fourth with $12.2 million (I went with my $13.6 million). It’s earned $119 million overall.

Teen Titans Go! To the Movies, despite positive critical reaction, had a lackluster beginning in fifth place with $10.4 million, well under my $16.4 million forecast.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: July 27-29

Tom Cruise and his IMF forces are back in theaters for the sixth time as Mission: Impossible – Fallout debuts this weekend along with the superhero animated tale Teen Titans! Go To the Movies. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on both of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/07/17/mission-impossible-fallout-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/07/18/teen-titans-go-to-the-movies-box-office-prediction/

Fallout is getting some of the best reviews that the 22-year-old franchise has ever received and the Ethan Hunt adventure should easily top the charts with a low to mid 60s haul.

It’s the #2 spot that could be a little more interesting. In a bit of a surprise this past weekend, The Equalizer 2 edged by Mamma Mia! Here Go Again for the #1 position. However, Fallout provides more direct competition for Denzel and it’s likely that Mamma retains the runner-up position with Equalizer falling to third.

And that’s only if Teen Titans doesn’t manage to outperform my estimate. My forecast for it has dwindled over the last few days and my low teens expectation could put it in a close battle for fourth with the third weekend of Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation. 

Here’s how I see the top five playing out:

1. Mission: Impossible – Fallout

Predicted Gross: $63.6 million

2. Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again

Predicted Gross: $19.8 million

3. The Equalizer 2

Predicted Gross: $17.1 million

4. Teen Titans! Go To the Movies

Predicted Gross: $16.4 million

5. Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation 

Predicted Gross: $13.6 million

Box Office Results (July 20-22) 

Denzel Washington continued to prove his box office potency as The Equalizer 2 was a surprise #1 over Mamma Mia with $36 million, easily outpacing my $26.8 million estimate. That tops the $34 million earned out of the gate by its predecessor. With the Mission competition coming up, I expect this to drop approximately 50%.

Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again, despite failing to place first, opened right in line with expectations with a pleasing $34.9 million. That’s a bit higher than my $33.5 million estimate. As stated above, I expect it to maintain its #2 position this weekend.

Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation dropped to third with $23.7 million in its sophomore frame for $91 million total. That’s on target with my $24.5 million prediction.

Ant-Man and the Wasp was fourth with $16.5 million (I said $15.2 million) to bring its tally to $165 million.

Incredibles 2 rounded out the top five and I incorrectly had it outside of that. The Pixar record breaker took in $11.8 million and it’s up to $557 million.

I mistakenly had Skyscraper in the top 5, but it was sixth with $11.3 million (a tad under my $12 million projection). The underwhelming Dwayne Johnson action pic has made $47 million.

Lastly, Unfriended: Dark Web couldn’t generate an audience with just $3.4 million (I went higher at $5.1 million). That said, the Blumhouse horror sequel reportedly only cost $1 million, so I’m sure the studio isn’t sweating it too much.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: July 20-22

In a summer season filled with them, we have our most sequel heavy weekend ahead of us as Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again, The Equalizer 2, and Unfriended: Dark Web all debut on Friday. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/07/10/mamma-mia-here-we-go-again-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/07/10/the-equalizer-2-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/07/11/unfriended-dark-web-box-office-prediction/

Both Mamma and Equalizer will attempt to unseat current sequel champ Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation from the top spot. The former seems to have the edge, while Denzel Washington’s first sequel ever should place second. That puts Adam Sandler’s animated flick in third with Ant-Man and the Wasp and the underwhelming Skyscraper rounding out the top five.

The low theater count for Unfriended means my $5.1 million estimate leaves it lurking outside of the high five. Here is my take on the weekend ahead:

1. Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again

Predicted Gross: $33.5 million

2. The Equalizer 2

Predicted Gross: $26.8 million

3. Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation

Predicted Gross: $24.5 million

4. Ant-Man and the Wasp

Predicted Gross: $15.2 million

5. Skyscraper

Predicted Gross: $12 million

Box Office Results (July 13-15)

Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation opened right in line with expectations at #1 with $44 million (I said $43.6 million). The third iteration of Adam Sandler and his monster friends could see a slightly larger decline in weekend #2 than its predecessors due to summer competition. They respectively fell 36% and 31% and I’ve got this pegged around 44%.

Ant-Man and the Wasp dropped to second in its sophomore frame and was swatted a bit harder than I figured at $29 million compared to my $33.4 million prediction. The MCU sequel stands at $133 million currently.

Dwayne Johnson’s Skyscraper opened below expectations in third with $24.9 million, well under my $33.2 million projection. Mixed reviews and (perhaps) a bit of overexposure for the star could have hurt it a bit.

Incredibles 2 was fourth with $16.2 million (I was close at $16.6 million) for a grand total of $535 million.

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom was right behind in fifth with $16.1 million (higher than my $14.2 million forecast) for $363 million overall.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

 

Box Office Predictions: July 13-15

Adam Sandler’s animated sequel Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation and Dwayne Johnson’s action pic Skyscraper debut this weekend in what could be an interesting battle for #1 and especially #2 at the box office. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/07/03/hotel-transylvania-3-summer-vacation-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/07/03/skyscraper-box-office-prediction/

My low 40s estimate for Transylvania puts it in the pole position to top the charts. However, if it were to come in under expectations  and not reach the numbers of its predecessors, the door could be open for Ant-Man and the Wasp (in its sophomore frame) or Skyscraper to be a spoiler. It’s dangerous to underestimate the drawing potency of Johnson, but my low 30s projection for his latest puts Skyscraper in a razor-thin battle for #2 with Marvel’s latest.

Incredibles 2 and Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom should be 4th and 5th.

And with that, my projections for the weekend’s top 5:

1. Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation

Predicted Gross: $43.6 million

2. Ant-Man and the Wasp

Predicted Gross: $33.4 million

3. Skyscraper

Predicted Gross: $33.2 million

4. Incredibles 2

Predicted Gross: $16.6 million

5. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom

Predicted Gross: $14.2 million

Box Office Results (July 6-8) 

The Marvel Cinematic Universe is 20 for 20 as far as #1 openers as Ant-Man and the Wasp buzzed in with $75.8 million, falling under my $86.4 million projection. That debut is on the lower end of expectations for the sequel and ranks 16th out of 20 for MCU openers. That said, it still managed to gross nearly $20 million more than its 2015 predecessor for its start. I expect it to fall in the mid 50s in weekend #2, creating a photo finish with Skyscraper for the runner-up spot to Transylvania. 

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom fell to second after two weeks on top with $28.6 million (I was close at $28.2 million) to brings it tally to $333 million.

Incredibles 2 was close behind in third with $28.4 million (I said $27.8 million) as the Pixar phenom crossed the $500 million mark at $503 million. In just four weeks, it is already the studio’s largest earner surpassing Finding Dory. 

The First Purge was fourth and continued the franchise’s run of high grosses compared to their low budgets. The Blumhouse horror pic took in $17.3 million over the Friday to Sunday portion of the weekend compared to my $22.8 million estimate. It opened on Wednesday and has taken in $31.2 million for the five-day overall. I was much closer on that figure with my $31.4 million prediction.

Sicario: Day of the Soldado took quite a hit in its second weekend. It was fifth after dropping 60% to $7.6 million (I was higher with $10.1 million). It’s total is $35 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…