Box Office Predictions: August 3-5

Blogger’s Note II (08/02/18): I am revising Christopher Robin down to $29.6 million, meaning I’m now predicting Mission: ImpossibleFallout will take the top spot.

Blogger’s Note (08/02/18): I am revising my estimate for Darkest Minds from $8.7 million down to $6.3 million, which leaves it outside the top five.

The month of August at the box office kicks off with three new releases attempting to dislodge Tom Cruise and his IMF agents from the top spot: Disney’s Christopher Robin, Mila Kunis/Kate McKinnon comedy The Spy Who Dumped Me, and Fox’s YA adaptation The Darkest Minds. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on that trio here:

Paramount is celebrating the franchise best opening yet with Mission: Impossible – Fallout and I’m anticipating a second weekend drop in the mid 40s range. That should put it in an extremely tight battle with Winnie the Pooh and company, which I have premiering in the mid 30s (though it could go higher).

The #3 spot should go to Spy, which I have slated for a mid teens start. Both Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again and The Equalizer 2 dipped more harshly in their sophomore frames than I estimated. Therefore my high double digits projection for The Darkest Mind could be enough for it to nab #4 (though it could be neck and neck with Mamma).

And with that, my top 5 predictions for the weekend ahead:

1. Mission: Impossible – Fallout

Predicted Gross: $32 million

2. Christopher Robin

Predicted Gross: $29.6 million

3. The Spy Who Dumped Me

Predicted Gross: $15.3 million

4. Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again

Predicted Gross: $8.3 million

5. Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation

Predicted Gross: $6.9 million

Box Office Results (July 27-29) 

22 years after part 1, Tom Cruise achieved his highest opening in the Mission: Impossible franchise as Fallout took in $61.2 million (a touch below my $63.6 million estimate). Bolstered by terrific reviews, the sixth entry in the spy saga managed to outdo previous record holder Mission: Impossible II‘s $57 million way back in 2000. It’s safe to say Mr. Cruise is planning his stunts for a seventh pic.

Holdovers all experienced harsher declines that I figured. Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again remained in second place with $15.1 million (I said $19.8 million) to bring its two-week tally to $70 million.

Last week’s champ The Equalizer 2 was third with $14 million compared to my $17.1 million projection. The Denzel Washington sequel fell a mighty 61% in its sophomore outing.

Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation was fourth with $12.2 million (I went with my $13.6 million). It’s earned $119 million overall.

Teen Titans Go! To the Movies, despite positive critical reaction, had a lackluster beginning in fifth place with $10.4 million, well under my $16.4 million forecast.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

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