Tag: Box Office Results

Box Office Predictions: November 30-December 2

As is traditionally the case, the post Thanksgiving weekend should be a quiet one for new releases as audiences should continue to feast on leftovers. The only newcomer is horror pic The Possession of Hannah Grace and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/11/22/the-possession-of-hannah-grace-box-office-prediction/

I’m not expecting much from Possession with my meager $3.2 million forecast. That would leave it outside the top 5 and most likely in the bottom rungs of the top 10. That means the top half of the top 10 is likely to stay the same – with some potential flip flopping occurring.

Ralph Breaks the Internet may lose close to half its audience in its sophomore outing and that would easily place it first once again with a gross in the high 20s. That drop would put it in line with the post Thanksgiving sophomore frames of Frozen, Moana, and Coco – all Disney titles that debuted over the long holiday.

The battle for #2 could be a little more interesting. In 2015, Creed dipped 49% in its second weekend (which also was a post holiday one) and I think this will roughly follow suit. If that occurs, I expect The Grinch will continue its smallish declines as we move closer to Christmas. That could allow the surly green guy to move into the runner-up position.

In 2016, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them plummeted a steep 59% in its third weekend and sequel The Crimes of Grindelwald could be facing the same fate. That said, remaining in fourth place shouldn’t be a problem.

For the #5 slot, I believe Instant Family could manage to jump Bohemian Rhapsody by a razor-thin margin as it looks to have a minor dip compared to other pics.

And with that, my top 6 projections for the weekend upon us:

1. Ralph Breaks the Internet

Predicted Gross: $28.7 million

2. The Grinch

Predicted Gross: $20 million

3. Creed II

Predicted Gross: $18.2 million

4. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindewald

Predicted Gross: $12.1 million

5. Instant Family

Predicted Gross: $7.9 million

6. Bohemian Rhapsody

Predicted Gross: $7.8 million

Box Office Results (November 23-25)

Ralph Breaks the Internet, as expected, ruled the Turkey Day frame with $56.2 million for its Friday to Sunday haul and $84.7 million from Wednesday to Sunday. The Disney sequel managed to surpass my respective estimates of $54.4 million and $79.8 million. As mentioned, this should have no trouble being #1 at the box office for probably the next two weekends.

Creed II also opened with highly impressive results in second with the largest live-action Thanksgiving debut of all time. The boxing sequel made $35.5 million over the traditional weekend and $56 million for the five-day gross. This was above my respective projections of $31.4 million and $45.3 million. Opening larger than its predecessor, it appears poised to top the $109 million overall gross of 2015’s Creed.

The Grinch was third with $30.3 million (I was right there at $30.1 million) to brings its three-week total to an opposite of grumpy $180 million.

Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald went from first to fourth with $29.3 million (I went higher with $34.8 million). It’s taken in $116 million thus far and should come in well under the $234 million made by its predecessor.

Bohemian Rhapsody was fifth with $14 million (I said $14.1 million) for $152 million overall.

Instant Family held up nicely after a so-so debut in sixth with $12.3 million (I said $12.7 million). The Mark Wahlberg/Rose Byrne dramedy eased just 15% to bring its two-week tally to $35 million. I expect this to continue to play well into the holiday season.

It was bad news for Lionsgate as the latest Robin Hood reboot (with a reported $100 million price tag) was DOA in seventh with $9.1 million for the three-day and $14,2 million for the five-day. That’s on the mark with my $9.7 million and $14.1 million take on it. Expect this to fade fast.

Widows was 8th in its sophomore frame with $8.2 million, shy of my $9.5 million estimate for $25 million total.

Green Book expanded nationwide with middling results in ninth place with $5.5 million over Friday to Sunday and $7.4 million for the five-day. It did get over my predictions of $4.5 million and $7.4 million. Its studio will cross their fingers that the A+ Cinemascore grade allows it to have sturdy legs.

A Star Is Born was 10th with $3 million (I went with $4 million) and it’s nearing double century territory with $191 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: November 23-25

Blogger’s Note (11/20): On the eve of their debuts, I have respectively increased and decreased projections for Creed II and Green Book

Well it’s Turkey Day weekend at the box office and that always makes for a crazy frame to predict the numbers we shall see over the long holiday! We have four newcomers debuting and/or expanding to the masses: Disney animated sequel Ralph Breaks the Internet, follow-up to the 2015 punchy blockbuster Creed II, the latest Robin Hood tale with Taron Egerton and Jamie Foxx, and Oscar hopeful Green Book. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the quartet here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/11/13/ralph-breaks-the-internet-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/11/14/creed-ii-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/11/14/robin-hood-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/11/17/green-book-box-office-prediction/

There’s little doubt that the Mouse Factory should rule the charts with return of Ralph. It’s a familiar position for the studio as they’ve opened Frozen and numerous Pixar pics over Thanksgiving.

Creed II certainly has breakout potential. I have it performing very similar, however, to its predecessor three years ago on the same weekend. That estimate would put it in fourth behind family offerings Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald in weekend #2 and The Grinch in weekend #3.

This particular holiday often sees holdover experience extremely slim declines as moviegoers take the weekend to sample leftovers. Both Instant Family and Widows debuted under expectations (more on that below), but I have them both holding quite sturdily.

I’m not looking for the newest Robin Hood to score many points with audiences and have it slated for a lowly seventh place start.

Green Book expands to around 1000 screens and it’s quite a question mark. It’s getting serious awards chatter, but its limited release numbers this past weekend were not too impressive. I still think it can reach double digits for the five-day roll out and that leaves it in ninth place considering all the competition.

With every newbie debuting on Wednesday and all the returnees attempting to be stay afloat, my typical top 5 forecast becomes a top 10 this time around! Here they are:

1. Ralph Breaks the Internet

Predicted Gross: $54.4 million (Friday to Sunday), $79.8 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

2. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald

Predicted Gross: $34.8 million

3. Creed II

Predicted Gross: $31.4 million (Friday to Sunday); $45.3 million

4. The Grinch

Predicted Gross: $30.1 million

5. Bohemian Rhapsody 

Predicted Gross: $14.1 million

6. Instant Family

Predicted Gross: $12.7 million

7. Robin Hood

Predicted Gross: $9.7 million (Friday to Sunday), $14.1 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

8. Widows

Predicted Gross: $9.5 million

9. Green Book

Predicted Gross: $4.5 million (Friday to Sunday), $6.3 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

10. A Star Is Born

Predicted Gross: $4 million

Box Office Results (November 16-18)

All new releases seemed to come in a bit under the forecasts and that started with Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald. As anticipated, it easily topped the charts at $62.1 million, but that’s about $12 million less than its predecessor from two years ago and under my $70.1 million take.

The Grinch fell to second with $38.5 million in its sophomore frame. I was right there at $38.6 million. It’s made $126 million so far as it should continue to play well into the season.

Bohemian Rhapsody was third with $16 million (I went higher at $19.5 million). It’s three-week tally is $128 million.

Instant Family, despite good reviews and the star power of Mark Wahlberg, was fourth with a middling $14.5 million. I was considerably higher at $19.4 million. The silver lining could be a very solid hold coming up.

And despite great reviews, heist thriller Widows disappointed in fifth with $12.3 million (I said $15.8 million). Like Family, it hopes to level out over the holiday.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: November 16-18

A trio of newbies enter the marketplace in the pre-Thanksgiving weekend as J.K. Rowling’s latest wizard tale Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald, Mark Wahlberg family comedy Instant Family, and critically hailed ensemble heist drama Widows debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/11/06/fantastic-beasts-the-crimes-of-grindelwald-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/11/07/instant-family-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/11/07/widows-box-office-prediction/

There’s little doubt that Beasts will easily take its perch atop the charts, as every Rowling based pic has going back to Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone seventeen years ago. I’ve got it premiering just under its predecessor Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them in November 2016.

After it solid start, The Grinch should drop to second place. The direct competition from Beasts could mean a drop in the low to possibly mid 40s.

The rest of the top 5 gets interesting as Bohemian Rhapsody enters its third frame and battles with the newcomers. I’ve become a bit more convinced that Family will manage to outdo Widows out of the gate. If we take the Freddie Mercury biopic down about 40%, it could slightly edge Family.

Here’s my take on the weekend’s high five:

1. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald

Predicted Gross: $70.1 million

2. The Grinch

Predicted Gross: $38.6 million

3. Bohemian Rhapsody

Predicted Gross: $19.5 million

4. Instant Family

Predicted Gross: $19.4 million

5. Widows

Predicted Gross: $15.8 million

Box Office Results (November 9–11)

It was sturdy holiday greetings for The Grinch as the animated Christmas flick took in $67.5 million, a bit ahead of my $63.4 million projection. There’s plenty of competition in the pipeline, but this should still play well throughout the upcoming season.

Bohemian Rhapsody was second in its sophomore weekend at $31.2 million (I said $29.8 million). In just ten days, it’s hit the $100 million mark.

Zombie war pic Overlord opened in third with a so-so $10.2 million, chomping past my $8.2 million estimate. It wasn’t expected to be this weekend’s #2 newcomer, but that has more to do with another film coming up in the recap.

The Nutcracker and the Four Realms dropped to fourth with $10 million, on pace with my $10.2 million prediction. The Disney disappointment has made $35 million in two weeks.

A Star Is Born was fifth with $8.1 million (I said $8 million) to bring its haul to $178 million.

Opening in sixth place was The Girl in the Spider’s Web with a meager $7.8 million compared to my $9.4 million take. The soft reboot of the franchise could not connect with audiences seven years following the successful The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo.

Lastly, today we lost an icon who created many of the heroes and villains that have dominated pop culture and our 21st century cinematic universe. RIP Stan Lee and thank you.

Box Office Predictions: November 9-11

Illumination Entertainment’s animated The Grinch looks to steal the box office crown from Bohemian Rhapsody after its killer opening this past weekend. We also have The Girl in the Spider’s Web and Overlord debuting and vying for some of the same audience members. You can find my detailed estimates on the trio of newbies right here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/10/30/the-grinch-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/10/30/the-girl-in-the-spiders-web-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/10/30/overlord-box-office-prediction/

My mid 60s start for The Grinch easily places it in the top spot as it looks like to play well into the holiday season, even with plenty of family related competition coming soon.

Bohemian, despite very mixed reviews, played well with the masses and I don’t see it dropping more than mid 40s in its sophomore frame. The runner-up spot should be no problem for it.

As for the other newcomers, I have soured on Spider’s Web. My initial projection of $13.7 million has dwindled to $9.4 million. Depending on how Disney’s The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (after a muted opening) drops in weekend #2, it could find itself in a battle for third place.

Despite positive critical notices, I’m skeptical that Overlord reaches its intended audience and I have it placing fifth with a sub double digits debut. If it opens much under that, it could be in danger of being sixth behind A Star Is Born. 

And with that, my top 6 projections for the weekend ahead:

1. The Grinch

Predicted Gross: $63.4 million

2. Bohemian Rhapsody

Predicted Gross: $29.8 million

3. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms

Predicted Gross: $10.2 million

4. The Girl in the Spider’s Web

Predicted Gross: $9.4 million

5. Overlord

Predicted Gross: $8.2 million

6. A Star Is Born

Predicted Gross: $8 million

Box Office Results (November 2-4)

Bohemian Rhapsody rocked out to a tremendous start with $51 million, easily outpacing my $41.8 million forecast. The Freddie Mercury biopic managed to outdo October’s debut for A Star Is Born. It’s likely to continue to play well throughout the month.

Disney experienced a rare letdown with The Nutcracker and the Four Realms as it opened in second to an unremarkable $20.3 million. It did manage to just top my $19.4 million estimate. The film will hope for smallish declines in the coming weeks, but competition for families and little ones is significant in November.

Tyler Perry’s comedy Nobody’s Fool starring Tiffany Haddish had a so-so premiere in third with $13.7 million, in range with my $14.5 million projection. That’s roughly half of what Haddish’s September pic Night School accomplished out of the gate.

A Star Is Born was fourth with $11 million (I said $9.7 million) to brings its total to $165 million.

Now that its namesake holiday has passed, Halloween took a tumble in weekend #3 to fifth with $10.8 million (I was higher at $14.1 million). Nevertheless the $10 million production has amassed a fantastic $150 million thus far.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: November 2-4

Blogger’s Note (10/30/18): My estimate for Bohemian Rhapsody has increased from $31.8M to $41.8M

A flurry of box office activity greets November as three new releases are unveiled. We have the Queen musical extravaganza Bohemian Rhapsody, Disney’s fantasy adventure The Nutcracker and the Four Realms, and Tyler Perry directed Tiffany Haddish comedy Nobody’s Fool. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/10/23/bohemian-rhapsody-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/10/24/the-nutcracker-and-the-four-realms-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/10/24/nobodys-fool-box-office-prediction/

Rhapsody appears poised to, ahem, be the champion. How much it earns is very much in question. Forecasts have it anywhere between $25-$35 million. Reviews have been mixed, but the band’s fan base and rocking trailers have the potential to make the point moot. The film has the potential to over perform ($40 million is in the cards), but I’m estimating it ends up falling in the middle of current projections. **Note updated above.

As for The Nutcracker, it’s risky to underestimate the marketing power of the Mouse Factory. That said, buzz for this seems curiously muted. While it should have no problem nabbing the runner-up spot, I believe it will do so with less than $20 million.

Tiffany Haddish has had a pair of hits with Girls Trip last summer and Night School just a month ago. The latter had the benefit of featuring Kevin Hart. My prediction for Fool gives it about half of what School made out of the gate. That could put it in a battle for third place with the third weekend of current champ Halloween, with A Star Is Born rounding out the top five.

And with that, my top 5 take on as November comes in:

1. Bohemian Rhapsody

Predicted Gross: $41.8 million

2. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms

Predicted Gross: $19.4 million

3. Nobody’s Fool

Predicted Gross: $14.5 million

4. Halloween

Predicted Gross: $14.1 million

5. A Star Is Born

Predicted Gross: $9.7 million

Box Office Results (October 26-28)

As expected, Halloween easily topped the charts for the second weekend in a row with $31.4 million, a bit below my $35.4 million estimate. The latest pairing of Michael Myers and Laurie Strode has taken in $126 million. That already gives it the all-time franchise earner by far (the previous record was 2007’s remake at $58 million).

For the fourth weekend in a row, A Star Is Born held the #2 spot with $14 million, a tad higher than my take of $13.3 million. It’s up to $148 million with $200 million in its sights.

Venom was third with $10.6 million (I was right there at $10.5 million) for an overall tally of $187 million.

Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween was fourth with $7.2 million (I said $6.9 million) for $38 million thus far.

None of the newcomers performed well. Hunter Killer managed just a fifth place showing with $6.6 million, not matching my $8.2 million prediction.

Jonah Hill’s directorial debut Mid90s expanded nationally with middling results in 10th with $2.9 million (I said $3.6 million).

In 12th place was Johnny English Strikes Back with $1.6 million compared to my $1.3 million projection. Faith-based drama Indivisible was 13th with $1.5 million (I said $1 million).

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: October 26-28

Blogger’s Note (10/25/18): On the eve of its premiere, I am revising my Hunter Killer estimate from $10.2 million to $8.2 million

Jamie Lee Curtis and her long running nemesis Michael Myers should have no trouble topping the box office charts once again as a trio of newcomers enter the marketplace. They are the Gerard Butler action thriller Hunter Killer, Pure Flix drama Indivisible, and Rowan Atkinson comedy sequel Johnny English Strikes Again. You can peruse my individual prediction posts on them here:

Hunter Killer Box Office Prediction

Indivisible Box Office Prediction

Johnny English Strikes Again Box Office Prediction

Let’s deal with the low hanging fruit first. I don’t expect Indivisible or English to come anywhere near the top 5 with respective estimates of $1 million and $1.3 million.

We also have Jonah Hill’s directorial debut Mid90s expanding into wide release after a four screen engagement this past weekend. A theater count will be key here, but if it gets 1000 screens I’ll say it hits around $3.6 million (this could rise or fall depending on volume).

Hunter Killer is a trickier proposition. It doesn’t seem to be generating much buzz, but recent Butler pics such as Geostorm and Den of Thieves have both managed to go slightly above projections. It’s tempting to say Killer won’t do double digits, but I’m putting it just over that for what would be a fourth place showing (though it could go higher).

Speaking of killers, Michael Myers and his Halloween sequel slashed its way to the second largest October opening of all time (behind Venom) and second highest horror premiere ever (behind It). I’ll say it dips around 53% for the weekend.

A Star Is Born and Venom seem poised to keep their 2-3 positions with Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween rounding out the top five.

And with that, the top 5 estimates for the weekend ahead:

1. Halloween

Predicted Gross: $35.4 million

2. A Star Is Born

Predicted Gross: $13.3 million

3. Venom

Predicted Gross: $10.5 million

4. Hunter Killer

Predicted Gross: $8.2 million

5. Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween

Predicted Gross: $6.9 million

Box Office Results (October 19-21)

As mentioned, Halloween achieved near record-setting status this weekend with a fantastic $76.2 million start, right in line with my $75.4 million prediction. It easily soared above the previous franchise record with $50 million to spare. That mark was held by Rob Zombie’s 2007 remake at $26 million.

A Star Is Born kept the runner-up spot for the third weekend with $19 million (I said $19.2 million) to bring its earnings to $126 million.

After two weeks on top, Venom dipped to third place with $18 million (I was a tad lower at $16.9 million) for a three-week tally of $171 million.

Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween was fourth with $9.7 million (I said $9.4 million) for a two-week gross of $28 million.

First Man continued its disappointing returns in fifth with $8.3 million – under my $10 million take. In two weeks, it’s earned an unimpressive $29 million.

Critically acclaimed The Hate U Give expanded wide with a solid $7.6 million for sixth place, getting past my $6.7 million estimate.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: October 19-21

Halloween looks to dominate the box office and slash all competition with a potentially record-setting opening. In order to do so, it would need to top the $80 million earned just days ago by Venom when it smashed the all-time October opening of all time. You can peruse my detailed prediction post in it here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/10/09/halloween-box-office-prediction/

As you can see, I’ve got earning just north of $75 million. That puts it short of Venom, but easily at #2 as far as all-time debuts for the month (it only needs top the $55 million that Gravity took in five years ago). That shouldn’t be a problem at all.

While this weekend’s #1 pic is not in question, the holdover battle should be interesting as well. The Michael Myers appearance will likely made Venom lose at least half its audience and that could cause it to drop to third place after two weeks in first place. That means A Star Is Born should hold steady in second.

First Man had a rather lackluster debut (more on that below) and it hopes to experience a smallish decline in the low to mid 30s. If so, it should rank fourth with Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween not far behind.

The Hate U Give expands to approximately 2300 theaters after it’s performed well in limited fashion. I’ll put its gross at $6.7 million and that would leave it outside the top 5.

Here’s the top 5 predictions for the scary weekend ahead:

1. Halloween

Predicted Gross: $75.4 million

2. A Star Is Born

Predicted Gross: $19.2 million

3. Venom

Predicted Gross: $16.9 million

4. First Man

Predicted Gross: $10 million

5. Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween

Predicted Gross: $9.4 million

Box Office Results (October 12-14)

Venom and A Star Is Born continued to rule the charts while all newcomers came in with rather lackluster returns. Marvel’s Venom repeated in first with $35 million in its second weekend, managing to top my $31.2 million estimate. The comic book based hit has amassed $142 million thus far.

A Star Is Born, as expected, held up well in its sophomore frame with $28.4 million (right in line with my $28.3 million projection). It’s about to join the century club after two weeks with $94 million currently.

The biggest surprise of the weekend was First Man, which failed to achieve liftoff in third with a disappointing $16 million, well below my $23.5 million take. Damien Chazelle’s Oscar hopeful with Ryan Gosling will hope for smallish declines, but this is unquestionably a letdown.

Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween couldn’t match its predecessor’s mid 20s start. It debuted in fourth with a mediocre $15.8 million compared to my $17.3 million prediction.

Smallfoot rounded out the top five with $9 million (I said $8.9 million) to bring its tally to $57 million.

Finally, Bad Times at the El Royale failed to generate many check-ins as it opened in seventh place with $7.1 million, a tad under my $8 million estimate.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

 

Box Office Predictions: October 12-14

A trio of newcomers open this weekend and face the considerable challenge of dislodging Venom and A Star Is Born from the top two spots. They are Damien Chazelle’s man on the moon tale First Man starring Ryan Gosling, family friendly sequel Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween, and Drew Goddard’s pulpy thriller Bad Times at the El Royale. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/10/02/first-man-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/10/03/goosebumps-2-haunted-halloween/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/10/03/bad-times-at-the-el-royale-box-office-prediction/

My mid 20s estimate for First Man will likely put it in third place, unless the second helping of Goosebumps manages to exceed expectations. If not, that newbie should place fourth with mid to high teens.

I’m not expecting much from the El Royale, despite mostly positive reviews. I believe it may only manage sixth place behind the third weekend of Smallfoot.

As for #1, that could get interesting. Venom easily scored the best October debut of all time (more on that below) while A Star Is Born met expectations. The second weekend drop for them could be quite different. While Venom could dip 60% or more, Star could see a fall in the smaller range of 30-35%. Assuming First Man doesn’t surpass projections, this could set up a close battle for first place among the returnees.

And with that, a top 6 take on the weekend ahead:

1. Venom

Predicted Gross: $31.2 million

2. A Star Is Born

Predicted Gross: $28.3 million

3. First Man

Predicted Gross: $23.5 million

4. Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween

Predicted Gross: $17.3 million

5. Smallfoot

Predicted Gross: $8.9 million

6. Bad Times at the El Royale

Predicted Gross: $8 million

Box Office Results (October 5–7)

Despite overwhelmingly negative reviews, comic book pic Venom with Tom Hardy obliterated the October opening record with $80.2 million. That gross exceeds the previous holder (Gravity) by nearly $25 million. It easily blew away my $62.5 million prediction. Even though a healthy drop seems probable this weekend, Sony has to be over the moon with this performance in a feature that is expected to start a franchise.

Bradley Cooper/Lady Gaga’s Oscar contender A Star Is Born got off to a rousing beginning in second with $42.9 million. While this is a bit under my $48.6 million estimate, it’s already made back its budget and looks to leg out solidly over the next several weeks. Counting its Tuesday and Wednesday special previews, it’s made $44.2 million.

Smallfoot was third in weekend #2 with $14.4 million. I was close at $13.6 million. The animated feature has grossed $42 million overall.

Night School fell from first to fourth with $12.5 million (I said $12.7 million) for a two-week total of $46 million.

The House with a Clock in Its Walls rounded out the top five with $7.3 million, on pace with my $7 million forecast. It’s earned $55 million thus far.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: October 5-7

The October box office gets underway this weekend with a strong likelihood that the month’s record will be broken as the comic book adaptation Venom and Bradley Cooper/Lady Gaga Oscar hopeful and musical drama A Star Is Born open. You can peruse my individual detailed prediction posts on them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/09/25/venom-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/09/25/a-star-is-born-box-office-prediction/

Both are expected to post impressive debuts. The current October record holder is from five years ago when Gravity made $55.7 million out of the gate. Venom is tracking to open between $60-$70 million. I believe it will match expectations and premiere on the lower end of that range, taking the all-time monthly debut with it.

While Venom could always fail to meet projections, I believe the real wild card here is A Star Is Born. Ever since it screened on the film festival circuit, praise and awards buzz has been loud for Bradley Cooper’s directorial debut and third remake of a tale that began in the 1930s. My initial estimate last week was $37.6 million and it has now risen to $48.6 million. It’s not out of the question that the projection could continue to rise during the week.

The two newcomers will easily take the top spots. As for holdovers, Smallfoot seems destined to experience a smaller drop than current champ Night School. I expect them to place 3rd and 4th, respectively, with The House with a Clock in Its Walls rounding out the top five.

And with that, my top five take on the big record-breaking weekend ahead:

1. Venom

Predicted Gross: $62.5 million

2. A Star Is Born

Predicted Gross: $48.6 million

3. Smallfoot

Predicted Gross: $13.6 million

4. Night School

Predicted Gross: $12.7 million

5. The House with a Clock in Its Walls

Predicted Gross: $7 million

Box Office Results (September 28-30)

As expected, the Kevin Hart/Tiffany Haddish comedy Night School opened in first place with $27.2 million, a bit under my $31.6 million prediction. While not reaching the heights of some other Hart laughers, it’s still a solid start. I do expect a fairly large drop this weekend.

Warner Bros animated Smallfoot premiered in line with expectations at $23 million. My prediction? $23 million! I foresee a second weekend drop around 35-40 percent.

The House with a Clock in Its Walls dropped to third with $12.6 million, falling further than my second weekend estimate of $15.3 million. It’s made $44 million thus far.

A Simple Favor was fourth with $6.5 million (I said $7 million) for a three-week tally of $43 million.

The Nun rounded out the top five with $5.4 million (I said $5.5 million) for an overall gross of $109 million.

Halloween themed horror pic Hell Fest yielded unimpressive results in sixth place with $5.1 million, in line with my $5.6 million projection.

Finally, the Pure Flix version of Little Women was a total bust this weekend with just $705,000 for 16th place. I was more generous at $1.1 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: September 28-30

**Blogger’s Note (09/27/18): My estimates for Night School and Smallfoot has risen slightly to $31.6 million and $23 million respectively.

It could be a battle for the #1 spot at the box office as September closes with the Kevin Hart/Tiffany Haddish comedy Night School and the animated Warner Bros family pic Smallfoot debuting. We also have the Halloween theme park set horror flick Hell Fest opening. You can peruse my detailed individual prediction posts on the trio here:

Night School Box Office Prediction

Smallfoot Box Office Prediction

Hell Fest Box Office Prediction

Before we get to the heavy hitters, the Pure Flix version of Little Women is also out Friday on a low 600 or so screens. I didn’t do a separate post for it and I’m not expecting much out of it. I’ll put its premiere at just $1.1 million.

Kevin Hart has shown his potency at the box office repeatedly with several openings north of $30 million. I don’t have Night School reaching quite that high, but my mid to late 20s estimate is enough to project it will top the lower to mid 20s gross of Smallfoot. 

Competition for Smallfoot will include the second weekend of The House with a Clock in Its Walls, which performed on the higher end of expectations out of the gate. It should drop to third place with A Simple Favor in fourth.

The five-spot is where I expect Hell Fest to compete. Horror movies always have the capacity to outdo expectations, but I’m not seeing much fanfare for this one. My mid single digits prediction could put it in range with the fourth weekend of The Nun.

And with that, a top 6 take on the weekend ahead:

1. Night School

Predicted Gross: $31.6 million

2. Smallfoot

Predicted Gross: $23 million

3. The House with a Clock in Its Walls

Predicted Gross: $15.3 million

4. A Simple Favor

Predicted Gross: $7 million

5. Hell Fest

Predicted Gross: $5.6 million

6. The Nun

Predicted Gross: $5.5 million

Box Office Results (September 21-23)

As anticipated, The House with a Clock in Its Walls topped the charts with a solid $26.6 million (ahead of my $23.2 million take). The Jack Black family pic, as mentioned, hit the better end of estimates. Considering its reported $40 million budget, this should be a nice hit for Universal.

A Simple Favor elevated from third place to second place in its sophomore weekend with $10.2 million, in line with my $10.6 million projection. Its total stands at $32 million.

The Nun crossed the $100 million mark placing third with $9.9 million (ahead of my $8.4 million estimate). Only Annabelle of the Conjuring Cinematic Universe didn’t manage to join the century club and The Nun appears poised to be the franchise’s second largest earner behind The Conjuring.

The Predator dipped mightily in weekend #2 to fourth place with a 63% fall and $9.1 million (I said $10 million) for $40 million overall.

Crazy Rich Asians was fifth with $6.3 million (I went with $5.9 million) for $159 million overall.

The newcomers besides Clock all failed to connect with moviegoers. Michael Moore’s doc (despite significant publicity) was a flop. While Fahrenheit 9/11 took in nearly $24 million in its first weekend in the summer of 2004, 11/9 managed a paltry $3 million for 8th place. I predicted $5 million.

Life Itself couldn’t overcome overwhelmingly negative reviews and the drama from “This Is Us” creator Dan Fogelman was 11th with a putrid $2.1 million. I was a bit higher at $3.8 million.

I didn’t make a prediction on the blog for Assassination Nation (though I said $1.2 million on Fantasy Movie League), but it was another bad opening in 15th place with $1 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…