Box Office Predictions: September 7-9

Blogger’s Note (09/06/18): I am making a change at #5 spot for the weekend and taking out Mission: Impossible – Fallout (still predicted at $4.1 million) and replacing it with Searching at $4.2 million.

While my attention on the blog has shifted in recent days to the many Oscar hopefuls premiering at film festivals, we still have box office predictions to consider. And there’s a trio of newcomers opening this weekend: horror pic The Nun from the Conjuring Cinematic Universe, Jennifer Garner revenge thriller Peppermint, and faith-based war drama God Bless the Broken Road. You can peruse my individual prediction posts on each of them here:

The Nun (with my mid 40s estimate) should have no trouble ending the three-week reign of Crazy Rich Asians atop the charts. The Conjuring franchise has been remarkably consistent in its opening weekend grosses and I expect that will continue here.

With that scary sister easily holding down the top spot, the real battle could be at #2 between Asians and Peppermint. I’ll give the former the edge by a couple million.

Summer holdovers The Meg and Mission: Impossible – Fallout should round out the top five. My lowly $2.1 million take on God Bless the Broken Road leaves it on the outside looking in.

And with that, my top 5 take on the weekend ahead:

1. The Nun

Predicted Gross: $45.4 million

2. Crazy Rich Asians

Predicted Gross: $14.2 million

3. Peppermint

Predicted Gross: $11.8 million

4. The Meg

Predicted Gross: $5.4 million

5. Searching 

Predicted Gross: $4.2 million

Box Office Results (August 31-September 3)

Crazy Rich Asians easily topped the charts for the third frame in a row with $28.5 million  over the Labor Day long holiday weekend (I was just a tad over at $30.6 million). The breakout comedy of the summer is up to $117 million thus far.

The Meg followed in second at $13.8 million (I said $14.5 million) for a tally of $123 million.

Mission: Impossible – Fallout was third with $9.3 million, in range with my $10 million projection. The sixth franchise entry stands at $206 million and is right on the doorstep at becoming the series highest domestic earner. That record is currently held by part 2 with $215 million.

Operation Finale had the biggest debut of the weekend in fourth with $7.8 million. I was close with an $8.8 million estimate. The Oscar Isaac/Ben Kingsley Nazi hunting drama has earned $9.6 million since its Wednesday opening.

The critically acclaimed computer screen set thriller Searching was close behind in fifth with $7.6 million, just ahead of my $7.1 million forecast. Counting its limited release a week prior, it’s made $8.1 million total.

I incorrectly had Christopher Robin in the top 5 but it placed 6th with $7.2 million (I said $8 million). The Winnie the Pooh tale has earned $87 million as it seems likely to eek out a $100 million gross.

A trio of newcomers all posted unimpressive results. Sci-fi family adventure Kin was 12th with $3.8 million (I was right there at $3.9 million). Mexican import Ya Veremos placed 14th at $2.2 million (I said $2.5 million). And the poorly reviewed Gothic horror effort The Little Stranger managed a piddling $496,000 for 23rd position… way under my $2.6 million guess.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

2 thoughts on “Box Office Predictions: September 7-9

  1. Your predictions sound very accurate. I would place The Nun at #1 as well I think you would be a good fit on Cinema Recap podcast if you are ever interested in joining

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