A Star Is Born Box Office Prediction

Riding a wave of serious Oscar buzz, A Star Is Born is unveiled in theaters next weekend. The musical romance is the third remake of the 1937 film (the last was from 1976 with Barbra Streisand and Kris Kristofferson). It marks the directorial debut of Bradley Cooper, who also stars as an alcoholic country singer who discovers and falls for a budding superstar (Lady Gaga). Costars include Sam Elliot, Dave Chappelle, Andrew Dice Clay, and Rafi Gavron.

After premiering at the Venice Film Festival weeks ago, Star immediately garnered awards attention. With great reviews (95% on Rotten Tomatoes), this is seen as a serious contender in a number of races including Best Picture. The performances of Cooper and Gaga have been met with raves. While she’s one of music’s biggest names, Gaga’s filmography has been limited to FX’s “American Horror Story” and Machete Kills. She seems destined to pick up an Oscar nod.

The likelihood is that Star will ride its awards chatter to solid grosses throughout the fall. How high it opens is more of a mystery. While it will almost certainly place second to Venom, the range is significant. I believe a gross of over $40 million is achievable.

A Star Is Born opening weekend prediction: $48.6 million

For my Venom prediction, click here:


One thought on “A Star Is Born Box Office Prediction

  1. From what I heard through Monday, presale for “A Star Is Born” is already through the roof; hundreds of early showings are being added daily and are already selling out. Studio predictions are still sitting at $30 million but industry analysts are telling me this is far too low. We could be looking at upwards of $70 million opening weekend. Could be a record-breaking weekend this first weekend of October with Venom also looking very strong, but “A Star Is Born” is enjoying a trail of buzz and audience excitement that will likely bring in huge numbers.

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