30th Critics’ Choice Awards Winner Predictions

The Critics’ Choice Awards hold their 30th ceremony this Friday after being delayed nearly a month due to the California wildfires. The Chelsea Handler hosted affair could certainly provide clues as to where Oscar could go in various competitions.

For some context, here’s how many times the CCA victor in some high profile races have matched with the Academy in the previous decade:

Picture: 5/10

Director: 8/10

Actress: 6/10

Actor: 6/10

Supporting Actress: 8/10

Supporting Actor: 9/10

Unlike the Oscars where my speculation goes on for months and across scores of posts, this is quick and to the point. Here are my winner predictions with a runner-up named. I’ll have a recap up shortly after the show.

Best Picture

Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing, The Substance, Wicked

PREDICTED WINNER – The Brutalist

Runner-Up: Anora

Best Director

Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), Edward Berger (Conclave), Jon M. Chu (Wicked), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), Coralie Fargeat (The Substance), RaMell Ross (Nickel Boys), Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two)

PREDICTED WINNER – Brady Corbet, The Brutalist

Runner-Up: Sean Baker, Anora

BEST ACTRESS

Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths), Angelina Jolie (Maria), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance)

PREDICTED WINNER – Mikey Madison, Anora

Runner-Up: Demi Moore, The Substance

BEST ACTOR

Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Daniel Craig (Queer), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Hugh Grant (Heretic)

PREDICTED WINNER – Adrien Brody, The Brutalist

Runner-Up: Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson), Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Nickel Boys), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Margaret Qualley (The Substance), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)

PREDICTED WINNER – Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez

Runner-Up: Ariana Grande, Wicked

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Yura Borisov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Denzel Washington (Gladiator II)

PREDICTED WINNER – Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain

Runner-Up: Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Anora, The Brutalist, Challengers, A Real Pain, September 5, The Substance

PREDICTED WINNER – Anora

Runner-Up: The Brutalist

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing, Wicked

PREDICTED WINNER – Conclave

Runner-Up: Nickel Boys

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

All We Imagine as Light, Emilia Pérez, Flow, I’m Still Here, Kneecap, The Seed of the Sacred Fig

PREDICTED WINNER – Emilia Pérez

Runner-Up: All We Imagine as Light

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Flow, Inside Out 2, Memoir of a Snail, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot

PREDICTED WINNER – The Wild Robot

Runner-Up: Flow

BEST COMEDY

Deadpool & Wolverine, Hit Man, My Old Ass, A Real Pain, Saturday Night, Thelma

PREDICTED WINNER – A Real Pain

Runner-Up: Saturday Night

BEST YOUNG ACTOR/ACTRESS

Alyla Browne (Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga), Elliot Heffernan (Blitz), Maisy Stella (My Old Ass), Izaac Wang (Dídi), Alisha Weir (Abigail), Zoe Ziegler (Janet Planet)

PREDICTED WINNER – Izaac Wang, Dídi

Runner-Up: Elliot Heffernan, Blitz

BEST ACTING ENSEMBLE

Anora, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Saturday Night, Sing Sing, Wicked

PREDICTED WINNER – Wicked

Runner-Up: Conclave

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Nickel Boys, Nosferatu, Wicked

PREDICTED WINNER – The Brutalist

Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Maria, Nosferatu, Wicked

PREDICTED WINNER – Wicked

Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two

BEST EDITING

Anora, The Brutalist, Challengers, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, September 5

PREDICTED WINNER – Anora

Runner-Up: The Brutalist

BEST HAIR AND MAKEUP

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, A Different Man, Dune: Part Two, Nosferatu, The Substance, Wicked

PREDICTED WINNER – The Substance

Runner-Up: Wicked

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Nosferatu, Wicked

PREDICTED WINNER – Wicked

Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two

BEST SCORE

The Brutalist, Challengers, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, The Wild Robot

PREDICTED WINNER – Challengers

Runner-Up: The Brutalist

BEST SONG

“Beautiful That Way” from The Last Showgirl; “Compress/Repress” from Challengers; “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez; “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper; “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot; “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez

PREDICTED WINNER – “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez

Runner-Up: “Compress/Repress” from Challengers

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Better Man, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, The Substance, Wicked

PREDICTED WINNER – Dune: Part Two

Runner-Up: Better Man

That means I’m projecting that these pictures win these numbers of CCAs:

4 Wins

The Brutalist

3 Wins

Anora, Emilia Pérez, Wicked

2 Wins

A Real Pain

1 Win

Challengers, Conclave, Dídi, Dune: Part Two, The Substance, The Wild Robot

30th Critics’ Choice Awards Nominations Reaction

Nominations for the 30th Critics’ Choice Awards were out this morning in a bustling week of precursor activity. I went 108 for 131 in my overall predictions in the feature film races. Let’s briefly go through each competition listing the nominees, how I did, and what I missed.

Best Picture

Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing, The Substance, Wicked

How I Did: 8/10

A Complete Unknown and Nickel Boys get in over my picks of Challengers and A Real Pain

Best Director

How I Did: 6/8

The “How I Did” number is misleading as I assumed there would be 6 nominated filmmakers and not 8. I correctly named six who made it, but didn’t predict Audiard and Ross.

Best Ensemble

Anora, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Saturday Night, Sing Sing, Wicked

How I Did: 5/6

I had The Brutalist and not Saturday Night

Best Actress

Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths), Angelina Jolie (Maria), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance)

How I Did: 5/6

Jean-Baptiste, who was snubbed for a Golden Globe nom, is in over Nicole Kidman (Babygirl) who did nab a GG mention.

Best Actor

Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Daniel Craig (Queer), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Hugh Grant (Heretic)

How I Did: 5/6

A surprising selection of Grant over my pick of Sebastian Stan in The Apprentice. Three days after garnering a Globe slot in Actor (Musical or Comedy), is it possible that Grant makes it in with the Academy?

Best Supporting Actress

How I Did: 5/6

A solid showing for Nickel Boys this morning. Ellis-Taylor in over Felicity Jones (The Brutalist)

Best Supporting Actor

Yura Borisov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Denzel Washington (Gladiator II)

How I Did: 4/6

Borisov and Norton are up instead of Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice) and Stanley Tucci (Conclave). Tucci has now missed GG and CCA. Borisov and Norton have made both.

Best Young Actor/Actress

Alyla Browne (Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga), Elliot Heffernan (Blitz), Maisy Stella (My Old Ass), Izaac Wang (Dídi), Alisha Weir (Abigail), Zoe Ziegler (Janet Planet)

How I Did: 4/6

Browne and Ziegler over Nykiya Adams (Bird) and Anora‘s Mark Eidelstein.

Best Original Screenplay

Anora, The Brutalist, Challengers, A Real Pain, September 5, The Substance

How I Did: 6/6

Yay!

Best Adapted Screenplay

Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing, Wicked

How I Did: 5/6

Perez and not The Room Next Door.

Best Foreign Language Film

All We Imagine as Light, Emilia Pérez, Flow, I’m Still Here, Kneecap, The Seed of the Sacred Fig

How I Did: 5/6

Flow and not Vermiglio.

Best Animated Feature

Flow, Inside Out 2, Memoir of a Snail, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot

How I Did: 5/5

I thought there would be six nominees so I also selected Transformers One. CCA decided to go with a handful of animated titles. I’m counting it as 5/5. I’ll be taking no questions.

Best Comedy

Deadpool & Wolverine, Hit Man, My Old Ass, A Real Pain, Saturday Night, Thelma

How I Did: 5/6

I had the critics considering Anora a comedy, but they didn’t so it’s My Old Ass instead (which was my runner-up).

Best Cinematography

The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Nickel Boys, Nosferatu, Wicked

How I Did: 4/6

Nosferatu and Wicked over Challengers and Emilia Pérez.

Best Costume Design

Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Maria, Nosferatu, Wicked

How I Did: 5/6

Conclave and not Beetlejuice Beetlejuice.

Best Editing

Anora, The Brutalist, Challengers, Conclave, Dune, September 5

How I Did: 5/6

September 5 gets in and not The Substance.

Best Hair and Makeup

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, A Different Man, Dune: Part Two, Nosferatu, The Substance, Wicked

How I Did: 6/6

Yay!

Best Production Design

The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Nosferatu, Wicked

How I Did: 5/6

I went with Emilia Pérez. They went with Conclave.

Best Score

The Brutalist, Challengers, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, The Wild Robot

How I Did: 6/6

Yay!

Best Song

“Beautiful That Way” from The Last Showgirl; “Compress/Repress” from Challengers; “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez; “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper; “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot; “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez

How I Did: 5/6

“Beautiful” is in; “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing is out.

Best Visual Effects

Better Man, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, The Substance, Wicked

How I Did: 3/6

My weakest showing as Better Man, Gladiator II, and The Substance are honored instead of Deadpool & Wolverine, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga. and Twisters.

And there you have it. Below are the total numbers of nominations for respective pictures. I’ll have winner predictions up shortly before the January 12th ceremony!

11 Nominations

Conclave, Wicked

10 Nominations

Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez

9 Nominations

The Brutalist

7 Nominations

Anora, The Substance

5 Nominations

Nickel Boys, Sing Sing

4 Nominations

Challengers, Gladiator II, Nosferatu

3 Nominations

A Complete Unknown, A Real Pain, The Wild Robot

2 Nominations

Flow, Maria, My Old Ass, Saturday Night, September 5

1 Nomination

Abigail, All We Imagine as Light, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Better Man, Blitz, Deadpool & Wolverine, Dídi, A Different Man, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, Hard Truths, Heretic, Hit Man, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Janet Planet, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Kneecap, The Last Showgirl, Memoir of a Snail, The Piano Lesson, Queer, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Thelma, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, Will & Harper

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga Box Office Prediction

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga storms into theaters this Memorial Day weekend as it hopes to improve upon the numbers of its 2015 predecessor Mad Max: Fury Road. The fifth feature of a franchise that began in 1979, George Miller returns to the director’s chair and this is the first Max tale without Max (in the form of Mel Gibson or Tom Hardy). The prequel casts Anya Taylor-Joy in the title role that Charlize Theron played nine years back. Chris Hemsworth costars along with Alyla Browne, Tom Burke, Lachy Hulme, Nathan Jones, Josh Helman, John Howard, and Angus Sampson.

With a reported budget of nearly $170 million, Warner Bros is banking on fruitful stateside returns and buoyant international results. Early signs are encouraging. Its Cannes premiere has produced an 88% RT score. While that’s not as high as Fury, word-of-mouth should be solid.

Back in 2015, Fury grossed $45 million in its mid-May opening slot en route to $153 million domestically. Furiosa will have the benefit of a four-day report due to the holiday. Hitting $50 million is achievable from Friday to Monday. I suspect it may slightly fall under that figure.

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga opening weekend prediction: $47.2 million (Friday to Monday estimate)

For my The Garfield Movie prediction, click here:

The Garfield Movie Box Office Prediction

For my Sight prediction, click here:

Sight Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions – Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

At the 88th Academy Awards covering the films of 2015, Mad Max: Fury Road received 10 nominations (the second highest behind The Revenant) and the most victories with 6. The wins were for Costume Design, Film Editing, Makeup and Hairstyling, Production Design, Sound Editing, and Sound Mixing. It came up short in Picture, Director (George Miller), Cinematography, and Visual Effects.

For the 97th Oscars, voters will have prequel Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga to consider. Miller’s fifth feature in the franchise that began 45 years ago has screened at Cannes prior to its Memorial Day weekend domestic release. Anya Taylor-Joy plays the title character portrayed by Charlize Theron in Fury Road. Chris Hemsworth costars along with Tom Burke, Alyla Browne, Lachy Hulme, Josh Helman, John Howard, and Angus Sampson.

Early reaction is certainly encouraging with an 87% Rotten Tomatoes rating. Some critics are claiming it’s on par with the predecessor while others say it doesn’t quite measure up (Road‘s RT score was 97%).

Saga‘s biggest hurdle to break into Picture and Director could be another sci-fi series entry from earlier this year and that is Dune: Part Two. That pic has likely punched its ticket in those two big races and there may not be room for Furiosa. That said, all those tech competitions could be in play and it could fall short to Dune in a few of them. Sound Editing and Mixing has since become one category so a best case scenario could be seven nods. There will some internet chatter for Hemsworth in Supporting Actor, but I suspect it will remain just that. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Rate this:

Rate this:

Rate this:

Rate this: