Steven Spielberg’s latest alien tale Disclosure Day looks to open impressively as the only new release in the top 5. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on the legendary filmmaker’s latest here:
With solid reviews and a robust marketing campaign, Spielberg’s return to the extraterrestrial genre will have no trouble topping the charts. I do not, however, think it’ll surpass the anticipated premiere range in the mid 40s to mid 50s. I’m putting it smack dab in the middle of those figures.
The last three Scary Movie flicks have all fallen in the high 50s during their sophomore outings. After a terrific opening (more on that below), I don’t see why the sixth installment wouldn’t do the same and it might even approach 60%.
That could mean Obsession, the little horror movie that could, rises from 4th to 2nd in its fifth weekend assuming it only drops around 10% with current champ Scary Movie dropping to third. I’m estimating that Masters of the Universe and Backrooms see declines in the mid 50s and place fourth and fifth.
Here’s how I see it shaking out:
1. Disclosure Day
Predicted Gross: $51.6 million
2. Obsession
Predicted Gross: $22.8 million
3. Scary Movie
Predicted Gross: $22 million
4. Masters of the Universe
Predicted Gross: $13.5 million
4. Backrooms
Predicted Gross: $12.4 million
Box Office Results (June 5-7)
Scary Movie reenergized a franchise that had been dormant for 13 years and set a series best start with $54.3 million, besting my $47.5 million projection. The spoof flicks that have been around since the beginning of the 21st century looks good to go for an eventual seventh entry and I doubt a decade plus wait will occur.
Masters of the Universe did not have the power of box office potency in second with $29.4 million, on target with my $29.8 million call. Considering the reported budget approaching $200 million, that’s a weak debut for the second big screen adaptation of the 80s Saturday morning animated show.
Backrooms was third with a considerable but understandable 68% sophomore slide. The low-budget horror hit took in $26.2 million compared to my $30.6 million forecast. The two-week tally is a fantastic $135 million.
Obsession continued its historic run in weekend #4 in fourth with $25.3 million, surpassing my $23.4 million estimate. The really low-budget horror hit grew to $151 million.
The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act, featuring episodes of the hit web series, rounded out the top five with $12.3 million, in line with my $13.1 million take. Since its Thursday start, the gross is $20.2 million.
The Mandalorian and Grogu, the summer’s most notable disappointment (more than He-Man), was sixth with $9.6 million (I said $11 million). The three-week earnings of $155 million is low for its storied franchise.
Finally, Power Ballad with Paul Rudd and Nick Jonas (despite decent critical reaction) bombed in 12th with only $1.2 million. I thought it might strike a higher chord at $4.2 million.
And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…
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