Tag: The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act

June 12-14 Box Office Predictions

Steven Spielberg’s latest alien tale Disclosure Day looks to open impressively as the only new release in the top 5. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on the legendary filmmaker’s latest here:

Disclosure Day Box Office Prediction

With solid reviews and a robust marketing campaign, Spielberg’s return to the extraterrestrial genre will have no trouble topping the charts. I do not, however, think it’ll surpass the anticipated premiere range in the mid 40s to mid 50s. I’m putting it smack dab in the middle of those figures.

The last three Scary Movie flicks have all fallen in the high 50s during their sophomore outings. After a terrific opening (more on that below), I don’t see why the sixth installment wouldn’t do the same and it might even approach 60%.

That could mean Obsession, the little horror movie that could, rises from 4th to 2nd in its fifth weekend assuming it only drops around 10% with current champ Scary Movie dropping to third. I’m estimating that Masters of the Universe and Backrooms see declines in the mid 50s and place fourth and fifth.

Here’s how I see it shaking out:

1. Disclosure Day

Predicted Gross: $51.6 million

2. Obsession

Predicted Gross: $22.8 million

3. Scary Movie

Predicted Gross: $22 million

4. Masters of the Universe

Predicted Gross: $13.5 million

4. Backrooms

Predicted Gross: $12.4 million

Box Office Results (June 5-7)

Scary Movie reenergized a franchise that had been dormant for 13 years and set a series best start with $54.3 million, besting my $47.5 million projection. The spoof flicks that have been around since the beginning of the 21st century looks good to go for an eventual seventh entry and I doubt a decade plus wait will occur.

Masters of the Universe did not have the power of box office potency in second with $29.4 million, on target with my $29.8 million call. Considering the reported budget approaching $200 million, that’s a weak debut for the second big screen adaptation of the 80s Saturday morning animated show.

Backrooms was third with a considerable but understandable 68% sophomore slide. The low-budget horror hit took in $26.2 million compared to my $30.6 million forecast. The two-week tally is a fantastic $135 million.

Obsession continued its historic run in weekend #4 in fourth with $25.3 million, surpassing my $23.4 million estimate. The really low-budget horror hit grew to $151 million.

The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act, featuring episodes of the hit web series, rounded out the top five with $12.3 million, in line with my $13.1 million take. Since its Thursday start, the gross is $20.2 million.

The Mandalorian and Grogu, the summer’s most notable disappointment (more than He-Man), was sixth with $9.6 million (I said $11 million). The three-week earnings of $155 million is low for its storied franchise.

Finally, Power Ballad with Paul Rudd and Nick Jonas (despite decent critical reaction) bombed in 12th with only $1.2 million. I thought it might strike a higher chord at $4.2 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

June 5-7 Box Office Predictions

**Blogger’s Update (06/03): A day after posting my top 5 predictions, we are making it a top 6. The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act wasn’t really on my radar screen. However, the combination of episodes for the adult web animated series opens Thursday and is expected to make some noise. My $13.1 million Friday to Sunday guesstimate gives it the 5 spot, knocking The Mandalorian to sixth.

While scary movies ruled the charts in the remarkable weekend that just happened, the franchise that spoofs them returns to theaters for the first time in 13 years and should place #1. In addition to Scary Movie, He-Man is back in multiplexes after nearly 40 years offscreen with Masters of the Universe. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Scary Movie Box Office Prediction
Masters of the Universe Box Office Prediction

Scary Movie looks to be arriving at an opportune time as horror flicks are dominating and posting previously unthought of grosses via Backrooms and Obsession. The sixth entry in the series began in 2000, it could absolutely break the franchise opening record held by Scary Movie 3 at $48 million. I’ve got it just under in what should be an uncomplicated path to the top slot.

The race for #2 is more open. Adapting the toy line and Saturday morning cartoon that began over 40 years ago (and led to a panned Dolph Lundgren live-action version in 1987), Masters needs family audiences to turn out as teens and adults will be preoccupied with Scary Movie and scary movies. My projection of just under $30 million would be considered a letdown. If Masters does my estimated figure, it opens the door for Backrooms to be second if it drops in the 60% range. That’s what I’m saying will happen in a photo finish.

Then there’s Obsession which has built its earnings from the first week to the second to the third. As mentioned before, that’s practically unheard of for any wide release movie (let alone a horror one). I have it finally easing in the mid teens in week #4, but we’re in uncharted territory here so who knows?

After a troubling second outing, The Mandalorian and Grogu should round out the top five. Finally, Power Ballad with Paul Rudd and Nick Jonas expands nationwide. I didn’t do an individual post for it. I’ll put its wide release at $4.2 million and that’s well outside the top five.

Here’s how I have it shaking out:

1. Scary Movie

Predicted Gross: $47.5 million

2. Backrooms

Predicted Gross: $30.6 million

3. Masters of the Universe

Predicted Gross: $29.8 million

4. Obsession

Predicted Gross: $23.4 million

5. The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act

Predicted Gross: $13.1 million

6. The Mandalorian and Grogu

Predicted Gross: $11 million

Box Office Results (May 29-31)

Before Backrooms came out, A24’s largest opening weekend belonged to Civil War at $25 million. I knew Backrooms would blast past that record and predicted that it would more than double that figure at $57 million. I couldn’t have been more wrong. Based on the hit found footage web series, it more than tripled A24’s previous best at $81.4 million. To say the least, young viewers turned out in droves and a new franchise is undoubtedly born.

Obsession stayed in second and increased its crowd by 14% at $27.3 million, falling just below my $29.5 million prediction. The phenomenon now has $105 million in the bank after three weeks.

A week after experiencing the worst Star Wars start in the Disney era, The Mandalorian and Grogu had the heftiest percentage drop of them all. Falling 70%, it made $24.4 million compared to my $25.6 million call. The less than anticipated total is $136 million.

Michael was fourth with $11.8 million (I said $13 million) as the musical biopic has amassed $340 million after six weeks.

Nate Bargatze is a bestselling stand-up, but it didn’t translate to box office bucks in his first starring vehicle The Breadwinner. It sputtered in fifth with only $7.3 million. I was more generous at $12.1 million.

Finally, Pressure opened in seventh with $5.8 million. The well-reviewed World War II drama got beyond my $4.9 million estimate with the fifth highest per theater average in the top 10.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…