Oscar Predictions – Joker: Folie à Deux

There are some genuine awards related surprises as it pertains to the Venice Film Festival debut for Joker: Folie à Deux today. It is not shocking that the Todd Phillips sequel to his billion plus 2019 grosser is garnering wildly divergent reactions. So did the original. I’m talking about some unexpected housekeeping items. For one, Lady Gaga’s performance as Harley Quinn is said to be a clear Supporting Actress play and not lead. In my updated Oscar predictions post yesterday, I slotted her for the first time (at #5) in Actress. That will obviously change. Another tidbit is that despite Deux being a musical, there doesn’t appear to be any original songs for consideration. I’ve listed a TBD tune in my quintet of forecasted contenders for several weeks. That, too, will be corrected when I updated Academy projections shortly (probably Sunday).

Prior to its October 4th stateside premiere (exactly five years after part one), the follow-up has premiered in Italy just like the last one did. The first Joker started its Oscar run by taking the Golden Lion (equivalent to Best Picture) in Venice. It ended up receiving a ceremony high 11 nominations at the 92nd Academy Awards including Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, and several tech races. Joaquin Phoenix received the gold statue in Best Actor eleven years after Heath Ledger won Supporting Actor as the same character in The Dark Knight. The Original Score by Hildur Guõnadóttit was also victorious.

Phoenix is back as the iconic comic book villain along with Gaga, a returning Zazie Beetz, Brendan Gleeson, and Catherine Keener supporting. Even more so than what took place a half decade ago, Folie appears to be drawing even more divisive word-of-mouth. The Metacritic score is 54 based on nearly 25 reviews thus far. Some are calling it brilliant while others are saying this is a huge misfire.

The Academy is unlikely to show the same affection that they did with Joker. BP, Director, and Actor seem improbable. I’ve yet to include Deux in my top 10 picks for BP and that doesn’t appear to be changing. Down the line races like Production Design, Costume Design, Makeup & Hairstyling, and Original Score (from Hildur again) could occur. Yet the Academy might just ignore this altogether or maybe throw it a bone in one or two of the aforementioned categories.

Back to Gaga. She was nominated in Actress for 2018’s A Star is Born and was expected to be up for 2021’s House of Gucci. She didn’t make the cut for Gucci. Supporting Actress could include heavy hitters like Zoe Saldaña and Selena Gomez from Emilia Pérez, Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson), Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Nickel Boys), and Tilda Swinton (The Room Next Door), among others whose films have yet to be unveiled. Gaga is getting good ink as Quinn, but there may not be room for her to get in the door. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…