July 28-30 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Update (07/26): A rather low reported 1900 screen count for Talk to Me has lowered my estimate from $4.8 million to $3.6 million. That likely leaves it outside of the top six.

After a historic box office weekend, July closes out with a pair of new releases in Disney’s Haunted Mansion and A24’s critically acclaimed Talk to Me. Neither are likely to dislodge the potent 1-2 punch of Barbenheimer. My detailed prediction posts on the newbies are here:

Haunted Mansion Box Office Prediction

Talk to Me Box Office Prediction

I don’t really see audiences clamoring for a fresh spin on Haunted Mansion (nearly 20 years after the one with Eddie Murphy) and buzz seems light. Family crowds should get it to a ho-hum mid 20s gross and that would place it in third.

Even if it made $30-35 million, that wouldn’t mean top two. Those spots are reserved for Barbie and Oppenheimer after their amazing starts (more on that below). The question is how far each dips in weekend #2.

For Barbie, the event status that it took on makes it somewhat naturally front loaded. A worst case decline might be around 55-60%. Considering the A Cinemascore grade and chance for repeat business, I’ll say 45-50% is more feasible and that means low to possibly mid 80s.

Oppenheimer also nabbed an A Cinemascore grade and perhaps some adult viewers are content for the IMAX screenings to be a bit less packed. I’ll say it doesn’t quite fall 50% with a take of over $40 million.

Sound of Freedom should continue its meager percentage decreases while Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One hopes to right the ship after a turbulent two weeks. They should place fourth and fifth, respectively.

While Talk to Me is generating impressive reviews, this could be the type of A24 elevated horror experience that doesn’t bring genre fans out in droves. A lot of them just got their fright fix with Insidious: The Red Door as well.

And with that, here’s how I see the top 6 playing out:

1. Barbie

Predicted Gross: $82.6 million

2. Oppenheimer

Predicted Gross: $43.8 million

3. Haunted Mansion

Predicted Gross: $25.4 million

4. Sound of Freedom

Predicted Gross: $14.7 million

5. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One

Predicted Gross: $10.6 million

Box Office Results (July 21-23)

Racking up the fourth highest financial frame in history, Greta Gerwig’s Barbie and Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer gave us the best weekend in over four years.

Barbie captured the zeitgeist and an especially sizable female audience to the tune of $162 million, right on pace with my $160.8 million prediction. That’s the best three-day opening of 2023 and my hunch is that it will remain so. It’s also the #1 premiere for a female directed feature and 20th overall.

Oppenheimer gave Mr. Nolan his personal best third start (after The Dark Knight Rises and The Dark Knight). Blasting beyond my $65.3 million estimate, the three-hour Oscar contender amassed $82.4 million for an astonishing runner-up showing. Those packed IMAX screenings didn’t hurt.

Sound of Freedom was third as it continued its low declines with $19.8 million, just below my $21 million projection. The brilliantly marketed action thriller sits at $124 million.

And this is where the good news stops. Mission: Impossible: Dead Reckoning, after a less than expected opening, had a free fall from 1st to 4th. The Barbenheimer phenomenon helped it plummet 65% to $19.3 million compared to my $25.5 million call. The ten-day tally is $118 million.

Indiana Jones and the Dial Destiny and Insidious: The Red Door were fifth and sixth, respectively. Each made $6.6 million. Indy‘s four-week earnings are at $158 million while Insidious‘s three-week bounty is $71 million.

I incorrectly had Elemental in fifth, but it was seventh with $5.7 million (I said $6.7 million) for $137 million overall.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…