Oscar Watch: Vice

One of my most eagerly anticipated Oscar Watch entries screened for the first time yesterday in the form of Vice, Adam McKay’s biopic of Vice President Dick Cheney with Christian Bale in the lead. While official reviews are embargoed until next month, plenty of social media reaction is available. The verdict? Just as Mary Queen of Scots proved to be a potential contender at the AFI Fest earlier this week, so too has this and perhaps more so.

In particular, word of mouth on Bale’s work is rapturous. He could easily find himself in the mix for not only a nomination, but for a Lead Actor win (his most serious competition appears to be Bradley Cooper in A Star Is Born). Amy Adams plays wife Lynne and reviews suggest she’s a lock for a Supporting Actress nod. It would mark her sixth nomination and she’s yet to win. As for Sam Rockwell in Supporting Actor as George W. Bush, that appears less certain but possible (he won that race last year for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri).

For the past several weeks, I’ve had Vice at #9 in a bit of a placeholder position in Best Picture. I feel more confident today that it gets in and I foresee its ranking rising when I update predictions on Thursday. Same goes for McKay’s direction and his original screenplay, where it faces stiff competition from The Favourite, Green Book, and Roma. McKay’s last screenplay (2015’s The Big Short) won him an Adapted Screenplay gold statue. In down the line slots, Editing and especially Makeup and Hairstyling are possibilities.

Bottom line: Vice has likely solidified itself as a contender, with Bale and Adams as threats to win their respective fields. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

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