Four titles enter the marketplace this weekend with the big-ticket item being Deadpool 2. It should easily achieve the third highest opening so far in 2018 (behind MCU juggernauts Avengers: Infinity War and Black Panther) and knock Infinity from its three-week perch atop the charts. We also have comedy Book Club, family pic Show Dogs, and documentary Pope Francis: A Man of His Word debuting. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
As stated, the return of Ryan Reynolds and his very R-rated superhero should dominate. I have the sequel to the 2016 mega-hit performing slightly over its predecessor, which stormed out of the gate with $132 million in February of 2016. Avengers should drop to second and lose around 50% of its audience.
Book Club, if it manages to reach my high single digits forecast, could place third if Life of the Party loses 50% or more of its audience (which I believe it will). Show Dogs has some sleeper potential, but my projection puts it in a potential dogfight with the second weekend of Breaking In.
The Pope documentary is debuting on a low 350 screens. While it should have a solid per screen average, my $2.3 estimate puts it towards the lower end of the top ten. And with that, here are my top 6 projections for the weekend:
1. Deadpool 2
Predicted Gross: $137.4 million
2. Avengers: Infinity War
Predicted Gross: $30.8 million
3. Book Club
Predicted Gross: $10.3 million
4. Life of the Party
Predicted Gross: $8.4 million
5. Show Dogs
Predicted Gross: $7.9 million
6. Breaking In
Predicted Gross: $7.2 million
Box Office Results (May 11-13)
Avengers: Infinity War continued its domination in weekend #3 with $62 million (a bit more than my $59.7 million prediction) to bring its gargantuan tally to $548 million. That’s the fourth highest third frame of all time (behind Star Wars: The Force Awakens, Avatar, and Black Panther). The MCU phenomenon is in 8th place already on the all-time domestic earners list.
Melissa McCarthy experienced a box office disappointment as Life of the Party was second with $17.8 million, under my $19.4 million forecast. It’s her lowest opener so far for a starring vehicle ever since she broke out in 2011 with Bridesmaids.
The Gabrielle Union thriller Breaking In performed well, debuting in third with $17.6 million. My prediction? $17.6 million! The pic is likely to experience a pretty hefty drop this weekend.
Overboard held up quite impressively in its sophomore frame (perhaps thanks to a Mother’s Day bump) with $9.8 million, easily outpacing my $6.2 million projection. The comedy has earned $30 million so far.
A Quiet Place rounded out the top five with $6.4 million (I was a tad lower at $5.3 million) to bring its total gross to $169 million.
And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…