Box Office Predictions: June 1-3

The post Memorial Day weekend gives us a trio of vowel led titles as romantic disaster drama Adrift with Shailene Woodley, Johnny Knoxville comedy Action Point, and Blumhouse horror pic Upgrade all debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/05/24/adrift-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/05/23/action-point-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/05/24/upgrade-box-office-prediction/

I don’t expect any of the newbies to exactly set the box office ablaze, but have Adrift getting over Action Point (if for nothing else than the higher theater count). My meager $2.8 estimate for Upgrade leaves it far outside the top 5.

The top two (and perhaps 3) should remain unchanged, but the real story of the weekend may be how far Solo: A Star Wars Story drops. It shouldn’t have trouble remaining #1, but as discussed in my post from last night, it came in considerably below expectations:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/05/28/solo-a-star-wars-letdown/

Press chatter since the undeniably disappointing premiere of Solo has solely focused on just that and it could cause the film to take a hefty dip in its sophomore frame. In addition, tent pole features opening over the Memorial weekend typically experience large declines anyway. Last year’s Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales fell 64%. I believe a better comp might be Indiana Jones and the Crystal Skull from 10 years ago. It made $100 million over the three-day portion of the holiday weekend and dipped 55% in weekend #2. That seems more feasible for Solo, however if it fell over 60% it wouldn’t exactly be shocking.

Deadpool 2 should remain in second place while Avengers: Infinity War could find itself locked in battle for third with Adrift or possibly Action Point. I’m giving Adrift an edge.

And with that, my top 5 projections for the beginning of June:

1. Solo: A Star Wars Story

Predicted Gross: $37.3 million

2. Deadpool 2

Predicted Gross: $20.9 million

3. Adrift

Predicted Gross: $11.7 million

4. Avengers: Infinity War

Predicted Gross: $8.6 million

5. Action Point

Predicted Gross: $6.6 million

Box Office Results (May 25-28)

As discussed already, Solo: A Star Wars Story came in far below expectations with $103 million over the four-day weekend. That’s, ahem, a bit under my forecast of $151.3 million. Just days ago, the stand-alone Star Wars entry was a strong candidate to break the previous $139 million Memorial Day record held by Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End. It ended up as only the 7th highest holiday haul.

Deadpool 2 dropped to second with $53.8 million, in line with my $55.2 million prediction for a two-week total of $218 million.

Avengers: Infinity War was third at $22.4 million (I was right there at $22.5 million) for $627 million overall.

Book Club was fourth with $13.1 million in its second weekend, topping my $11.7 million projection for $35 million total. The comedy is scoring with a female and older audience and turning into a nice midsize summer performer.

Life of the Party rounded out the top five with $6.8 million, topping my $5.3 million prediction. It’s made $40 million total.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: May 25-28

It’s Memorial Day weekend at the box office and Solo: A Star Wars Story is the solo new release as it looks to dominate the holiday charts. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/05/15/solo-a-star-wars-story-box-office-prediction/

I believe Solo will manage to just top $150 million for the four-day frame and that would make it the largest Memorial Day opening of all time (topping the $139 million earned by Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End in 2007).

The holiday weekend often means small declines for holdovers and I believe that will hold true such titles as Avengers: Infinity War, Book Club, and Life of the Party. That may not apply to Deadpool 2, which will certainly be in second place. The Ryan Reynolds sequel seems likely to lose over 50% of its opening crowd – perhaps even 55% or so.

And with that, my take on the weekend’s top five (keep in mind these are Friday to Monday estimates):

1. Solo: A Star Wars Story

Predicted Gross: $151.3 million

2. Deadpool 2

Predicted Gross: $55.2 million

3. Avengers: Infinity War

Predicted Gross: $22.5 million

4. Book Club

Predicted Gross: $11.7 million

5. Life of the Party

Predicted Gross: $5.3 million

Box Office Results (May 18-20)

Deadpool 2 easily dominated the weekend, but did so with a little less dollars than most projections include mine. The superhero sequel earned $125.5 million, under my $137.4 million prediction. That’s good for the second biggest R rated debut of all time behind… Deadpool from 2016. Considering its reported $110 million budget, that’s still a hefty haul even though many figured it might manage to just top the original.

Avengers: Infinity War dropped to second after three weeks at #1 with $29.4 million (in line with my $30.8 million projection) for $595 million overall.

Book Club experienced a nice debut in third with $13.5 million, ahead of my $10.3 million estimate. I look for this to have perhaps the smallest drop of any feature over Memorial Day.

Life of the Party was fourth with $7.6 million (I said $8.4 million) for $30 million total.

Breaking In rounded out the top five at $6.8 million (I said $7.2 million) for $29 million in its two weeks.

Finally, family feature Show Dogs failed to bring in its audience with just $6 million. I was higher at $7.9 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

 

Box Office Predictions: May 18-20

Four titles enter the marketplace this weekend with the big-ticket item being Deadpool 2. It should easily achieve the third highest opening so far in 2018 (behind MCU juggernauts Avengers: Infinity War and Black Panther) and knock Infinity from its three-week perch atop the charts. We also have comedy Book Club, family pic Show Dogs, and documentary Pope Francis: A Man of His Word debuting. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/05/09/deadpool-2-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/05/09/book-club-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/05/10/show-dogs-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/05/13/pope-francis-a-man-of-his-word-box-office-prediction/

As stated, the return of Ryan Reynolds and his very R-rated superhero should dominate. I have the sequel to the 2016 mega-hit performing slightly over its predecessor, which stormed out of the gate with $132 million in February of 2016. Avengers should drop to second and lose around 50% of its audience.

Book Club, if it manages to reach my high single digits forecast, could place third if Life of the Party loses 50% or more of its audience (which I believe it will). Show Dogs has some sleeper potential, but my projection puts it in a potential dogfight with the second weekend of Breaking In. 

The Pope documentary is debuting on a low 350 screens. While it should have a solid per screen average, my $2.3 estimate puts it towards the lower end of the top ten. And with that, here are my top 6 projections for the weekend:

1. Deadpool 2

Predicted Gross: $137.4 million

2. Avengers: Infinity War

Predicted Gross: $30.8 million

3. Book Club

Predicted Gross: $10.3 million

4. Life of the Party

Predicted Gross: $8.4 million

5. Show Dogs

Predicted Gross: $7.9 million

6. Breaking In

Predicted Gross: $7.2 million

Box Office Results (May 11-13)

Avengers: Infinity War continued its domination in weekend #3 with $62 million (a bit more than my $59.7 million prediction) to bring its gargantuan tally to $548 million. That’s the fourth highest third frame of all time (behind Star Wars: The Force Awakens, Avatar, and Black Panther). The MCU phenomenon is in 8th place already on the all-time domestic earners list.

Melissa McCarthy experienced a box office disappointment as Life of the Party was second with $17.8 million, under my $19.4 million forecast. It’s her lowest opener so far for a starring vehicle ever since she broke out in 2011 with Bridesmaids. 

The Gabrielle Union thriller Breaking In performed well, debuting in third with $17.6 million. My prediction? $17.6 million! The pic is likely to experience a pretty hefty drop this weekend.

Overboard held up quite impressively in its sophomore frame (perhaps thanks to a Mother’s Day bump) with $9.8 million, easily outpacing my $6.2 million projection. The comedy has earned $30 million so far.

A Quiet Place rounded out the top five with $6.4 million (I was a tad lower at $5.3 million) to bring its total gross to $169 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Book Club Box Office Prediction

Paramount is hoping to bring in an older female audience next Friday with the release of Book Club. The comedy casts the quartet of Diane Keaton, Jane Fonda, Candice Bergen, and Mary Steenburgen as members of a reading group who become influenced by their latest selection, Fifty Shades of Grey. The pic marks the directorial debut of Bill Holderman and costars include Andy Garcia, Don Johnson, Richard Dreyfuss, Craig T. Nelson, and Alicia Silverstone.

As mentioned, this Club hopes to capitalize on an often underserved market. Yet there is at least one other title appealing to females as Life of the Party will be in its sophomore frame and possibly still in lower double digits.

I’ll estimate this manages high single digits to low double digits itself out of the gate as it’ll likely hope for smallish declines in subsequent frames.

Book Club opening weekend prediction: $10.3 million

For my Deadpool 2 prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/05/09/deadpool-2-box-office-prediction/

For my Show Dogs prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/05/10/show-dogs-box-office-prediction/

For my Pope Francis: A Man of His Word prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/05/13/pope-francis-a-man-of-his-word-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Predictions: May 11-13

Two new titles look to place second and third this weekend as Avengers: Infinity War should continue to dominate the charts. They are the Melissa McCarthy back to college comedy Life of the Party and Gabrielle Union thriller Breaking In. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on that pair here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/05/02/life-of-the-party-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/05/02/breaking-in-box-office-prediction/

My high teens estimate for Party indeed puts it in the runner-up position with Breaking in mid to high teens for third. I’ve got Avengers grossing just under $60 million in its third frame to easily stay #1 with holdovers Overboard and A Quiet Place rounding out the top five.

And with that, my estimates for the weekend ahead:

1. Avengers: Infinity War

Predicted Gross: $59.7 million

2. Life of the Party

Predicted Gross: $19.4 million

3. Breaking In

Predicted Gross: $17.6 million

4. Overboard

Predicted Gross: $6.2 million

5. A Quiet Place

Predicted Gross: $5.3 million

Box Office Results (May 46)

Avengers: Infinity War continued its chart domination by scoring the second best second weekend ever at $114.7 million, a bit under my $118.1 million forecast. The Marvel juggernaut has amassed $453 million thus far.

Overboard had a healthy opening in second with $14.7 million, topping my $11.8 million estimate. I look for the comedy to have a rather hefty drop this coming weekend.

A Quiet Place was third at $7.7 million (I said $7.3 million) to bring its tally to $160 million.

I Feel Pretty was fourth with $5 million (I was close at $5.2 million) for $37 million overall.

Rampage was fifth and I incorrectly had it outside the top 5. It grossed $4.6 million and has made $84 million total.

Tully with Charlize Theron opened meekly in sixth with $3.2 million. I gave it a bit too much credit and had it at $5 million.

Finally, Bad Samaritan bombed in 11th place with just $1.7 million, a tad below my $2.1 million projection.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Breaking In Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Note (05/10/18): On the eve of its premiere, bumping my estimate from $13.6 million to $17.6 million

Gabrielle Union headlines the thriller Breaking In, out next weekend. Will the movie be able to generate any box office heat or will audiences have a cavalier attitude towards it? The actress plays a single mom caught up in a home invasion situation with her kids. James McTeigue, best known for making 2006’s V for Vendetta, is behind the camera. Costars include Ajiona Alexus, Christa Miller, Jason George, Billy Burke, and Richard Cabral.

The Universal release is currently slated to open on approximately 2300 screens. While it seems to be flying a bit under the radar, it could have enough appeal to female and African-American audiences to post a double digits debut. I’ll predict it manages to do that, which should place it third behind the third weekend of Avengers: Infinity War and the premiere of Melissa McCarthy’s Life of the Party.

Breaking In opening weekend prediction: $17.6 million

For my Life of the Party prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/05/02/life-of-the-party-box-office-prediction/

Life of the Party Box Office Prediction

Melissa McCarthy is back in theaters after a two-year absence when Life of the Party debuts next weekend. The comedy marks her third collaboration with her husband/director Ben Falcone after 2014’s Tammy and 2016’s The Boss. It’s her first appearance onscreen since the Ghostbusters reboot in the summer of 2016. The pic casts her as a divorced mom who goes back to college and ends up in the same class as her daughter. Costars include Molly Gordon, Gillian Jacobs, Maya Rudolph, Jacki Weaver, Julie Bowen, Matt Walsh, and Stephen Root.

The previous efforts of McCarthy with Falcone has yielded results in the low 20s at the box office. Tammy opened to $21 million with an eventual gross of $84 million. Two years later, The Boss premiered with $23 million and $63 million overall. It certainly is possible that Life could start out in the same range, but I could also see this falling just a tad lower.

I’ll project Life of the Party doesn’t quite reach $20 million, which should easily be enough for it to place second to the third weekend of Avengers: Infinity War.

Life of the Party opening weekend prediction: $19.4 million

For my Breaking In prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/05/02/breaking-in-box-office-prediction/