Penguins Box Office Prediction

The DisneyNature brand marches into theaters next week with the release of Penguins. It continues the franchise’s environmentally conscious documentaries timed for release just prior to Earth Day. As the title suggests, this Antarctic set coming of age tale focuses on a young penguin finding his way in the frozen tundra. Ed Helms narrates with Alastair Fothergill (who co-directed 2014’s Bears) and Jeff Wilson sharing filming duties.

Over the past decade, opening weekend grosses for DisneyNature has been quite consistent. The aforementioned Bears took in $4.7 million. The following year’s Monkey Kingdom made $4.5 million. In 2017, Born in China earned $4.7 million. That’s well under the studio’s high mark in 2012 achieved by Chimpanzee at $10.6 million.

Penguins is the first in the series since 2010’s Oceans to premiere on a Wednesday. Based on recent performances, that could mean it makes less than $4 million over the traditional weekend since it gets a two-day jump-start. I’ll predict that happens.

Penguins opening weekend prediction: $3.5 million (Friday to Sunday); $5 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

For my The Curse of La Llorona prediction, click here:

For my Breakthrough prediction, click here:

Born in China Box Office Prediction

The DisneyNature division of the Mouse Factory brings us the documentary Born in China next weekend. This is the seventh feature that the studio has timed to Earth Day focusing on nature and animals. Pandas and monkeys are the general subject in this case.

Narrated by John Krasinski, the Chinese version has already been released. The grosses of the six previous pictures have performed as follows:

Earth (2009) – $8.8 million debut

Oceans (2010) – $6 million

African Cats (2011) – $6 million

Chimpanzee (2012) – $10.6 million

Bears (2014) – $4.7 million

Monkey Kingdom (2015) – $4.5 million

As you can see, the opening weekends for the last pics have been the lowest of the bunch thus far. I suspect Born in China may fall in the same ballpark and I’ll put it just past $5M (people love pandas!).

Born in China opening weekend prediction: $5.2 million

For my Unforgettable prediction, click here:

For my The Promise prediction, click here:

For my Phoenix Forgotten prediction, click here:

For my Free Fire prediction, click here:

For my The Lost City of Z prediction, click here:

Box Office Predictions: April 18-20

On this coming Easter weekend, four new titles make their debut at multiplexes: the Johnny Depp sci-fi thriller Transcendence, the Christian themed drama Heaven Is for Real, the horror parody sequel A Haunted House 2, and the Disney nature doc Bears. You can find my individual prediction posts on each right here:

My predictions reflect a belief that Transcendence should open first, though it may face competition from Rio 2 in its second weekend. That animated sequel should suffer a rather small decline that isn’t as steep as last weekend’s returning champ Captain America: The Winter Soldier.

Heaven Is for Real could be poised for a solid opening with its shrewd Easter debut while I see fairly disappointing results for A Haunted House 2 and Bears.

And with that – my top six predictions for the holiday weekend:

1. Transcendence

Predicted Gross: $30.8 million

2. Rio 2

Predicted Gross: $25.9 million (representing a drop of 34%)

3. Captain America: The Winter Soldier

Predicted Gross: $18.9 million (representing a drop of 54%)

4. Heaven Is for Real

Predicted Gross: $17.5 million (predicted five-day opening of $24.8 million)

5. A Haunted House 2

Predicted Gross: $10.6 million

6. Bears

Predicted Gross: $8.9 million

Box Office Results (April 11-13)

As predicted, Captain America: The Winter Soldier held onto the top spot in its sophomore weekend with $41.2 million, a bit below my $45.3M prediction. The animated Rio 2 opened right on pace with its predecessor with $39.3 million (the first did $39.2M out of the gate), slightly below my $41.7M estimate. The horror flick Oculus had a middling start with $12 million for third place, just above my $11M projection while Kevin Costner’s Draft Day had a weak fourth place debut with only $9.7 million, under my $13.2M estimate. Noah rounded out the top five with $7.5 million, on target with my $7.4M prediction.

That’s all for now, folks! Until next time.