The Bikeriders Box Office Prediction

Focus Features is hoping audiences wanna take a ride with The Bikeriders on June 21st. The 1960s set crime drama comes is written and directed by Jeff Nichols with a cast including Jodie Comer, Austin Butler, Tom Hardy, Michael Shannon, Mike Faist, and Norman Reedus.

The pic was first seen at Telluride nearly ten months ago and delayed from its original December release date due to the actors strike. It stands to reason that the studio wanted their leads out promoting the project which scored mostly positive reviews (84% on RT).

That star power of Elvis and Venom may not be enough to give this a wide audience. I’m not convinced this will make its reported $40 million budget back with the eventual domestic gross. That might mean a low double digits start and I’m a bit skeptical it even reaches the teens.

The Bikeriders opening weekend prediction: $10.5 million

For my The Exorcism prediction, click here:

Oscar Predictions: The Bikeriders

Just as some potential awards heavy hitters are screening at the Venice Film Festival, the same holds true for Telluride over this Labor Day weekend. That includes The Bikeriders from Jeff Nichols (out December 1). Based on the 1968 book by Danny Lyon, the impressive cast includes Austin Butler (fresh off his Elvis nod), Jodie Comer, Tom Hardy, Michael Shannon, Mike Faist, Boyd Holbrook, and Norman Reedus.

The 60s and 70s set tale of a gang of outcasts marks the latest from critical favorite Nichols. Despite acclaim for Take Shelter, Mud, and Midnight Special, his only Oscar mention came with Ruth Negga’s Best Actress nod for 2016’s Loving. That category might be the only hope for The Bikeriders.

Some reviews are solid, but I don’t envision this as a player in Best Picture, Director, or Adapted Screenplay. Jodie Comer is getting the bulk of attention. She likely came close to an Actress slot for 2021’s The Last Duel. This could be a chance for the Academy to give her a first nomination. 20th Century Studios faces a decision whether to campaign for her in lead or supporting. No matter which race they choose, Comer’s inclusion may ride on whether voters are even thinking of The Bikeriders a few months down the road. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Triple 9 Box Office Prediction

With a cast of familiar faces, John Hillcoat’s heist thriller Triple 9 hits theaters next weekend. Casey Affleck, Chiwetel Ejiofor, Woody Harrelson, Aaron Paul, Norman Reedus, and Kate Winslet headline this pic, which is getting pretty decent notices (57% currently on Rotten Tomatoes).

The marketing campaign for Triple 9 hasn’t done a whole lot to set itself apart from other genre fare. Of the three newbies out next weekend (Gods of Egypt, Eddie the Eagle), this seems likeliest to come in third among them. This may even struggle to reach the $10 million opening mark achieved by Hillcoat’s last effort, 2012’s Lawless. I’ll predict it doesn’t for a muted premiere.

Triple 9 opening weekend prediction: $6.9 million

For my Gods of Egypt prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/02/18/gods-of-egypt-box-office-prediction/

For my Eddie the Eagle prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/02/18/eddie-the-eagle-box-office-prediction/