Box Office Predictions: November 17-19

Superheroes will rule the box office this weekend as DC’s Justice League looks to dominate the competition with Marvel’s Thor: Ragnarok sliding to second in its third frame. We also have the debuts of Wonder with Julia Roberts, Owen Wilson, and Jacob Tremblay and the animated The Star. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newbies here:

My Justice League estimate gives it the third highest opening of 2017 behind Beauty and the Beast and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 – and about $6 million above what Thor achieved just two weeks ago. Figuring in the Ragnarok gross this weekend, the DC/Marvel Cinematic Universes should account for about $150-$160 million of this pre-Thanksgiving weekend.

The 3-6 slots could get interesting. Daddy’s Home 2 rose above expectations, as did Murder on the Orient Express. I’m projecting that their sophomore frames should find them in third and fourth with Wonder rounding out the top 5 and The Star in sixth. Yet it could be close and that could change if either of the newcomers surpass expectations. Both of them stand decent shots at over performing.

And with that, my top 6 predictions for the weekend:

1. Justice League

Predicted Gross: $128.4 million

2. Thor: Ragnarok

Predicted Gross: $25 million (representing a drop of 56%)

3. Daddy’s Home 2

Predicted Gross: $15.9 million (representing a drop of 46%)

4. Murder on the Orient Express

Predicted Gross: $14.5 million (representing a drop of 49%)

5. Wonder

Predicted Gross: $12.9 million

6. The Star

Predicted Gross: $10.3 million

Box Office Results (November 10-12)

Thor: Ragnarok hammered all competition and set some franchise records as well. The threequel earned $57 million in weekend #2 (above my $53.8 million take) to brings its total to $212 million. In ten days, it’s already outdone both of its predecessors.

Just as the original did in December 2015, Daddy’s Home 2 surpassed forecasts. While it didn’t open with the $38 million achieved by the first Daddy’s, the sequel took in a pleasing $29.6 million. That’s well ahead of my $21.8 million prediction and on the highest end of expectations. The Will Ferrell/Mark Wahlberg follow-up hopes to continue its nice run over the next few weeks.

Kenneth Branagh’s Murder on the Orient Express also came in high with $28.6 million compared to my $24.6 million estimate. The murder mystery remake did receive a middling B Cinemascore average, but it could still play well with an adult audience for the remainder of November.

After a so-so opening that couldn’t match its predecessor from summer 2016, the second weekend of A Bad Moms Christmas delivered good news for the comedy sequel. It dropped just 32% to earn $11.4 million (topping my $8.6M estimate) to bring its two-week total to $39 million. If it continues to play well through the holidays, it may not be a disappointment after all.

Jigsaw rounded out the top five with $3.4 million (I said $2.9 million) to brings it tally to $34 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: November 10-12

Two notable entries enter the box office derby this weekend as comedy sequel Daddy’s Home 2 with Will Ferrell and Mark Wahlberg and Kenneth Branagh’s Agatha Christie adapted remake Murder on the Orient Express. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on both here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/10/31/daddys-home-2-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/11/01/murder-on-the-orient-express-box-office-prediction/

Neither newbie is likely to come anywhere near dislodging Thor: Ragnarok from a second weekend atop the charts. The critically acclaimed threequel is probably looking at a drop in the mid to possibly high 50s, which is par for the course for most MCU sequels.

The biggest question of the weekend is whether Home or Express nabs the #2 spot. Knowing that comedy sequels often under perform their predecessors (that happened just this past weekend), I’ve got Murder edging out Daddy’s for the runner-up position.

A Bad Moms Christmas should drop to fourth with Jigsaw rounding out the top five.

And with that, my top 5 projections for the weekend ahead:

1. Thor: Ragnarok

Predicted Gross: $53.8 million (representing a drop of 56%)

2. Murder on the Orient Express

Predicted Gross: $24.6 million

3. Daddy’s Home 2

Predicted Gross: $21.8 million

4. A Bad Moms Christmas

Predicted Gross: $8.6 million (representing a drop of 48%)

5. Jigsaw

Predicted Gross: $2.9 million (representing a drop of 57%)

Box Office Results (November 3-5)

Thor: Rangarok easily posted the highest debut in its particular franchise and the 7th largest Marvel Cinematic Universe opening with $122.7 million, topping my $107.6M forecast. Terrific word-of-mouth certainly contributed to it opening nearly $40 million above its predecessor Thor: The Dark World.

A Bad Moms Christmas had an unimpressive debut in second with $16.7 million over the traditional three-day weekend. I was a bit higher at $18.7 million. The sequel opened on Wednesday and has taken in $21.2 million since then. Again, that’s below my projection of $26.2 million. It failed in five days to earn the $23.8 million accomplished by its predecessor in summer 2016.

Jigsaw dropped to third with $6.5 million compared to my $5.9 million estimate. The horror pic has grossed $28 million so far.

Boo 2! A Madea Halloween was fourth with $4.5 million (I said $4.1 million) for a $42 million overall tally.

Geostorm rounded out the top five with $3.1 million (I went with $2.7 million) for $28 million total.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: November 3-5

The month of November looks to awaken a sleepy box office with the release of two high-profile sequels: Marvel’s threequel Thor: Ragnarok and comedic follow-up A Bad Moms Christmas. You can peruse my detailed individual prediction posts on each here:

Thor: Ragnarok Box Office Prediction

A Bad Moms Christmas Box Office Prediction

As I see it, Ragnarok is likely to be the first pic in the Thor franchise that reaches over $100 million in its first weekend. With very positive reviews and a strong international debut over the weekend, all the signs are there.

A Bad Moms Christmas opens on Wednesday to give it some breathing room from the Marvel Cinematic Universe juggernaut and I have it earning mid 20s for the five-day and high teens for the traditional three-day.

The rest of the top five should see low grosses from holdovers. Jigsaw had a mediocre debut atop the charts over Halloween weekend (more on that below) and looks to suffer a large decline in its sophomore frame. Boo 2! and Geostorm (or perhaps even Happy Death Day if Geostorm has a large enough decline) should fill the rest of the slots.

And with that, my top 5 projections for the weekend:

1. Thor: Ragnarok

Predicted Gross: $107.6 million

2. A Bad Moms Christmas

Predicted Gross: $18.7 million (Friday to Sunday), $26.2 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

3. Jigsaw

Predicted Gross: $5.9 million (representing a drop of 64%)

4. Boo 2! A Madea Halloween

Predicted Gross: $4.1 million (representing a drop of 59%)

5. Geostorm

Predicted Gross: $2.7 million (representing a drop of 55%)

Box Office Results (October 27-29)

It was expected to be a slow weekend and it certainly was that with the #1 movie doing just OK and other newbies performing even worse. Jigsaw managed a #1 debut with $16.6 million (a bit ahead of my $14.8 million prediction). That’s the second lowest of the eight features in the Saw franchise.

Boo 2! A Madea Halloween dropped to second with $10 million (I went higher at $12.2 million) to bring its two-week tally to $35 million.

Geostorm was third with $5.9 million (I said $5.4 million) to bring its lackluster total to $23 million.

Happy Death Day was fourth with $5 million and I incorrectly had it outside the top 5. The low-budget Blumhouse horror pic brought its solid total to $48 million.

I also whiffed on having Blade Runner 2049 outside the top 5 (thanks under performing newcomers). It earned $4.1 million for an overall gross of $81 million.

Thank You for Your Service, the Miles Teller war drama, underwhelmed in sixth place with $3.8 million, under my $5.4 million forecast. Mostly solid reviews couldn’t get audiences interested enough in this case.

Last (and certainly least in this case), Suburbicon was an absolute disaster, opening in 9th place with just $2.8 million. I was considerably higher at $7.3M. George Clooney’s poorly reviewed crime comedy with Matt Damon stands as one of the worst wide performers of the year.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: October 27-29

Before an onslaught of high-profile November titles hit the market, October should close out rather quietly at the box office in this Halloween weekend. There are three new entries making their wide debuts: continuation of the Saw franchise Jigsaw, the Matt Damon starring/George Clooney directed crime comedy Suburbicon, and Miles Teller war drama Thank You for Your Service. You can peruse my detailed individual predictions posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/10/18/jigsaw-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/10/18/suburbicon-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/10/18/thank-you-for-your-service-box-office-prediction/

There are numerous factors that may contribute to this weekend being a slow one. The last frame of October is typically pretty ho-hum regardless. There’s also the matter of a little Netflix show called Stranger Things premiering that could divert eyeballs onto the small screen and not the large one.

The seven year lay-off between Saw pictures could cause a muted debut for Jigsaw. Its number should still be enough to nab the #1 spot, however. Boo 2! should slip to second. It’s worth noting that the original Boo dropped just 39% in its sophomore outing last year over the same Halloween weekend. I have this dipping just a bit more.

I’m not expecting much from Suburbicon or Service and they could end up in a close race with the second weekend of Geostorm (which I expect to have a big drop).

Bottom line: Thor: Ragnarok and A Bad Moms Christmas should awaken the charts when November comes and here are my top 5 projections for this weekend:

1. Jigsaw

Predicted Gross: $14.8 million

2. Boo 2! A Madea Halloween

Predicted Gross: $12.2 million (representing a drop of 42%)

3. Suburbicon

Predicted Gross: $7.3 million

4. Geostorm

Predicted Gross: $5.4 million (representing a drop of 60%)

5. Thank You for Your Service

Predicted Gross: $5.2 million

Box Office Results (October 20-22)

As expected, Tyler Perry’s Boo 2! A Madea Halloween topped the charts with $21.2 million, a tad under my $22.6 million prediction. It falls about $7 million short of its predecessor one year ago, but marks the sixth Madea feature to open #1.

Geostorm ranked highest among the five debuts with $13.7 million, above my $11.2M projection. However, with its massive reported $120 million budget, this is a serious flop for Warner Bros.

Happy Death Day dropped to third with $9.3 million, below my $11.8M take to bring its two-week total to $40 million. With only a $5 million budget, this is quite the cash cow for Blumhouse.

Blade Runner 2049 was fourth and I incorrectly had it outside the top 5. In weekend #3, it earned $7.3 million to bring its disappointing tally to $74 million.

Opening in fifth was the firefighter drama Only the Brave with a meager $6 million, which is on the low-end of expectations and well below my generous $10 million projection.

The Snowman with Michael Fassbender got a chilly reception from audiences in 8th place with just $3.3 million, way below my $8 million forecast.

Lastly, Same Kind of Different as Me flopped in 12th place, opening to $2.5 million. I was right on target with my $2.6 million estimate.

And that does it for now! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: October 20-22

Blogger’s Update (10/19): Making some further adjustments. Boo 2! from $23.8M to $22.6M, Only the Brave from the $12.3M to $10M, and Geostorm from $11.6M to $11.2M.

Blogger’s Update (10/18): I am revising some predictions. I now have Happy Death Day falling over 50% for a third place showing and am estimating The Snowman from $10.8 million to $8 million.

We have an extremely busy weekend ahead with four new pictures looking to join the top five. They are the Tyler Perry holiday themed sequel Boo 2! A Madea Halloween, firefighter drama Only the Brave, disaster action flick Geostorm, and Michael Fassbender thriller The Snowman. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/10/11/boo-2-a-madea-halloween-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/10/11/only-the-brave-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/10/12/geostorm-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/10/12/the-snowman-box-office-prediction/

While I don’t have Boo 2! earning quite as much as its predecessor from last October, it shouldn’t have much trouble debuting at #1 as Perry’s fan base should show up.

It’s the 2-5 spots that could be really interesting. Current champ Happy Death Day scored a terrific debut and may not even fall 50% due to the Halloween proximity and decent buzz.

Only the Brave is receiving positive reviews and I’m forecasting it will premiere slightly above both Geostorm and The Snowman. All in all, I only have $3.1 million separating the runner-up to first place and the five spot.

There is one other debut as the Pure Flix feature Same Kind of Different as Me with Greg Kinnear and Renee Zellweger opens on a fairly low 1250 screens. I don’t expect much from it and I’ll estimate a $2.6 million take.

And with that, my top 5 predictions for the weekend:

1. Boo 2! A Madea Halloween

Predicted Gross: $22.6 million

2. Happy Death Day

Predicted Gross: $11.8 million (representing a drop of 55%)

3. Geostorm

Predicted Gross: $11.2 million

4. Only the Brave

Predicted Gross: $10 million

5. The Snowman

Predicted Gross: $8 million

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Fvo0f2NrDyI

Box Office Results (October 13–15)

Friday the 13th was a lucky day and it was a lucky weekend for Happy Death Day, the latest hit from Blumhouse. The well-reviewed horror pic scared up a sizzling $26 million compared to my $20.6M projection, more than five times its tiny budget. With Split and Get Out having scored megabucks earlier this year for its studio, Blumhouse has announced itself as the premiere distributor for these genre titles.

Blade Runner 2049 dropped to second with $15.4 million. My prediction? $15.4 million! The sci fi epic sequel’s disappointing earnings sit at $60 million.

Jackie Chan’s The Foreigner opened at the greater end of expectations with a sturdy $13.1 million, easily eclipsing my $8.8M prediction.

It was fourth with $6 million. My prediction? $6 million! It’s made $314 million.

The Mountain Between Us rounded out the top five with $5.7 million. My prediction? $5.7 million! Its two week total is $20 million. So I’ll give myself a pat on the back for my holdover guesses this weekend!

Lastly, the Chadwick Boseman biopic Marshall opened rather quietly in 11th place with $3 million (I was a bit higher at $4M).

Box Office Predictions: October 13-15

After a weekend where no new releases performed particularly well, we could be in for a similar situation this weekend. Though one newbie should manage to just clear $20 million. We have low-budget horror pic Happy Death Day, Jackie Chan action thriller The Foreigner, and Chadwick Boseman led biopic Marshall debuting. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/10/04/happy-death-day-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/10/05/the-foreigner-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/10/05/marshall-box-office-prediction/

The October Friday the 13th should bode rather well for Happy Death Day. With the underwhelming performance of Blade Runner 2049 (more on that below), I have Death slated for a first place showing in the low 20s and it could climb a bit higher.

Blade should slip to the runner-up position with The Foreigner in third. I have holdovers It and The Mountain Between Us rounding out the top five.

Marshall is only premiering on approximately 800 screens and my $4 million estimate for it puts it well outside the top 5. There is another apparent wide debut with Professor Marston & the Wonder Women. It stars Luke Evans and Rebecca Hall in the true life story of the man who created Wonder Woman. While it’s timed to capitalize on the summer’s biggest blockbuster, I’ll say it only manages maybe $2 million (there’s no theater count so I may revise that figure).

And with that, my top five projections for the weekend:

1. Happy Death Day

Predicted Gross: $20.6 million

2. Blade Runner 2049

Predicted Gross: $15.4 million (representing a drop of 53%)

3. The Foreigner

Predicted Gross: $8.8 million

4. It

Predicted Gross: $6 million (representing a drop of 40%)

5. The Mountain Between Us

Predicted Gross: $5.7 million (representing a drop of 46%)

Box Office Results (October 6–8)

As mentioned, pricey long time in the making sequel Blade Runner 2049 stalled in its opening weekend with $32.7 million, well below all expectations including my own $52.1M forecast. Despite glowing reviews, audiences simply didn’t come out for it as expected.

The Kate Winslet/Idris Elba disaster romance The Mountain Between Us debuted in second with a so-so $10.5 million, just above my $9.2M prediction.

It was third with $9.9 million (I said $9.3M) as it crossed the triple century mark at $305 million overall.

My Little Pony: The Movie was fourth out of the gate with just $8.8 million, under my $10.9M estimate.

Kingsman: The Golden Circle rounded out the top five with $8.6 million (I predicted $8M) for $80 million total.

In weekend #2, Tom Cruise’s American Made fell to sixth with $8.4 million compared to my $8.9M projection. It’s earned $30 million in ten days.

And that does it for now! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: October 6-8

Blogger’s Note (10/04/17) – I’ve changed predictions for nearly every film here… UPDATED PROJECTIONS REFLECTED BELOW

After a tight battle for #1 this past weekend between three pictures, there’s little no doubt as to what opens on top this coming weekend with Blade Runner 2049 hitting screens. We also have the Kate Winslet/Idris Elba disaster pic/romance The Mountain Between Us and animated My Little Pony: The Movie debuting. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/09/26/blade-runner-2049-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/09/27/the-mountain-between-us-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/09/28/my-little-pony-the-movie-box-office-prediction/

As mentioned, the glowing reviews for Blade Runner 2049 and the feeling of it being a bit of an event picture has me projecting a mid 40s opening. That should give it lots of space at #1 ahead of all competitors.

After that, it gets murky. I have Mountain slated at #2, but its middling reviews could be a hindrance to it reaching double digits (which I barely have it reaching).

When it comes to My Little Pony, my $8.2 million estimate is basically a middle ground figure as I could easily see it slightly over or under performing. That number puts it right in the mix of where It, American Made, and Kingsman: The Golden Circle might be. Bottom line: numbers 2-6 on the chart this weekend could be awfully close.

And with that, my top 6 projections for the weekend ahead:

1. Blade Runner 2049

Predicted Gross: $52.1 million

2. My Little Pony: The Movie

Predicted Gross: $10.9 million

3. It

Predicted Gross: $9.3 million (representing a drop of 45%)

4. The Mountain Between Us

Predicted Gross: $9.2 million

5. American Made

Predicted Gross: $8.9 million (representing a drop of 47%)

6. Kingsman: The Golden Circle

Predicted Gross: $8 million (representing a drop of 53%)

Box Office Results (September 29-October 1)

It is really the sole reason why this September’s box office was a record one and so it seems fitting that the horror flick nearly returned to the #1 position as the month ended. The pic earned $16.9 million (ahead of my $15.1M estimate) to bring its total to $290 million.

Yet it was Kingsman: The Golden Circle that barely remained on top as it also made $16.9 million (I said $17.6M) for a two-week tally of $66 million.

Tom Cruise’s American Made debuted in third with a just OK $16.7 million compared to my $15.5M prediction. Its best hope is for smallish declines in future frames.

The Lego Ninjago Movie dropped to fourth with $11.6 million (I said $12.6M) to bring its disappointing total to $35 million.

Flatliners did just that in its premiere in fifth, earning a sleepy $6.5 million, on pace with my $6.3M forecast.

In its wider expansion, Battle of the Sexes underwhelmed in sixth with only $3.4 million, below my $5.2M estimate.

And that does it for now! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: September 29-October 1

A record breaking September (thanks to a certain clown) draws to a close in a busy weekend with the two highest profile debuts being Tom Cruise’s American Made and sci-fi horror remake/sequel Flatliners. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on both of them here:

American Made Box Office Prediction

Flatliners Box Office Prediction

They aren’t the only newbies this weekend. There’s the thriller ‘Til Death Do Us Part with Taye Diggs and Christian themed drama A Question of Faith. As of this writing, there are screen counts on neither. As I see it, both could potentially over perform, but I’ll say $2.8 million for Death and $1.2 million for Faith. Those numbers could change, but right now it puts both well outside the top 5.

There could be a real battle for #1. If American Made manages to debut in the high teens to low 20s, it should capture that spot. However, my mid teens estimated debut puts it in the runner-up spot behind the second weekend of Kingsman: The Golden Circle. I expect Circle to experience a larger drop than the 49% one that its predecessor had. It should fall one spot to third.

With a considerably lower than anticipated opening, The Lego Ninjago Movie is likely to be fourth, though it may have a smallish decline due to lack of family options.

This brings us to the five spot. I am not expecting much out of Flatliners and the Emma Stone/Steve Carell Oscar hopeful Battle of the Sexes is expanding to over 1000 screens. I believe that could create a close race between them, though I’ll give Flatliners the edge.

And with that, I’ll do a top 6 predictions this weekend:

1. Kingsman: The Golden Circle

Predicted Gross: $17.4 million (representing a drop of 55%)

2. American Made

Predicted Gross: $15.5 million

3. It

Predicted Gross: $15.1 million (representing a drop of 49%)

4. The Lego Ninjago Movie

Predicted Gross: $12.6 million (representing a drop of 37%)

5. Flatliners

Predicted Gross: $6.3 million

6. Battle of the Sexes

Predicted Gross: $5.2 million

Box Office Results (September 22-24)

Kingsman: The Golden Circle took the gold this weekend with $39 million, a touch below my $43.6M projection. The sequel to the acclaimed 2015 sleeper hit didn’t receive the critical appreciation of the first, but it did manage to open slightly above its predecessor’s $36 million.

It dropped to second after two weeks on top with $29.7 million (I was right there with my $29.8M forecast) for a staggering tally of $266 million overall.

While Warner Bros has been celebrating the considerable accomplishments of Pennywise and The Losers, there was little to boast about with The Lego Ninjago Movie. The animated feature opened to just $20.4 million in third – way below my $38.6M estimate. The studio better hope its non spin-off sequel to 2014’s The Lego Movie gets the franchise back on track.

American Assassin was fourth in its sophomore frame at $6.2 million (I said $6.9M) for $26 million total.

mother! rounded out the top five with $3.2 million for a meager $13M total and I incorrectly had it outside the top five.

That’s because I gave far too much credit to the horror pic Friend Request. I pegged it at $5.7 million, but it managed just $2 million for seventh place. One wonders if It is simply sucking the oxygen out of any genre competition (it’s part of the reason I have Flatliners rather low).

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: September 22-24

The two-week reign of Pennywise atop the box office looks to float away this weekend as three new pictures debut: Matthew Vaughn’s action/comedy sequel Kingsman: The Golden Circle, animated action/comedy spin-off The Lego Ninjago Movie, and supernatural horror flick Friend Request. You can view my detailed individual prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/09/13/kingsman-the-golden-circle-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/09/13/the-lego-ninjago-movie-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/09/17/friend-request-box-office-prediction/

There is some question as to whether Kingsman or Ninjago take the top spot. I’m estimating the former will outdo the latter by approximately $5 million.

The continued amazing grosses of It could mean that three movies will top $30 million this weekend, but that demented clown should be right on the edge of that gross with an anticipated drop of around 50%.

American Assassin should slip to fourth place and I have Friend Request managing to round out the top five, albeit with a muted debut.

And with that, my top 5 estimates for the weekend:

1. Kingsman: The Golden Circle

Predicted Gross: $43.6 million

2. The Lego Ninjago Movie

Predicted Gross: $38.6 million

3. It

Predicted Gross: $29.8 million (representing a drop of 50%)

4. American Assassin

Predicted Gross: $6.9 million (representing a drop of 53%)

5. Friend Request

Predicted Gross: $5.7 million

Box Office Results (September 15-17)

It continued its startling run after its record breaking opening with $60.1 million in its second weekend, in line with my $59M forecast. The juggernaut has amassed an incredible $218 million in its ten days of existence.

American Assassin with Dylan O’Brien and Michael Keaton was runner-up with a respectable $14.8 million, topping my $13.2M prediction. That might not be enough to justify a franchise, but you never know.

Darren Aronofsky’s instantly controversial mother! with Jennifer Lawrence sputtered in third with $7.5 million. I was considerably higher with a $14.7M projection. While critics were mostly kind (68% on Rotten Tomatoes), audiences rendered their verdict with both their money and CinemaScore grade (an F, which is practically unprecedented). Expect mother! to take a massive tumble this coming weekend as well with the toxic word-of-mouth.

Reese Witherspoon’s Home Again held up decently in its sophomore weekend at #4 with $5.1 million compared to my $4.5M estimate. The rom com has grossed nearly $17 million so thus far.

The Hitman’s Bodyguard was fifth with $3.5 million (I said $2.6M) to bring its total to $70 million.

And that does it for now, ladies and gents! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: September 15-17

Two new movies debut wide this weekend as It should continue its incredible run on top in its second weekend. The newbies are the Jennifer Lawrence horror thriller mother! and Dylan O’Brien/Michael Keaton CIA action flick American Assassin. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/09/06/mother-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/09/06/american-assassin-box-office-prediction/

I’m anticipating a close race for second between the newcomers with mother! just edging out Assassin. I look for both to post numbers in the low to mid teens.

And… now to It. I have much more below on its record breaking haul over the weekend which blew away even the most generous forecasts. The question now is how much it falls in its sophomore frame.

As I see it, It should drop around 55% or so according to similarly performing titles. However, the Stephen King adapted pic displayed remarkably sturdy holds over the weekend from Friday to Saturday to Sunday. I believe there’s a chance it doesn’t even quite dip 50%, but I will put it at about 52%.

My review of It can be found here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/09/09/it-movie-review/

The rest of the top five should consist of the underwhelming Home Again and The Hitman’s Bodyguard.

And with that, my top 5 projections for the weekend:

1. It

Predicted Gross: $59 million (representing a drop of 52%)

2. mother!

Predicted Gross: $14.7 million

3. American Assassin

Predicted Gross: $13.2 million

4. Home Again

Predicted Gross: $4.5 million (representing a drop of 47%)

5. The Hitman’s Bodyguard

Predicted Gross: $2.6 million (representing a drop of 46%)

Box Office Results (September 8-10)

It happens and then some! You could see the potential for the horror pic’s opening weekend possibilities growing higher and higher prior to Friday. That said, it was hard to foresee just how huge it would be. It took in an astonishing $123.4 million… I was only $58M off with my $65.4 million estimate.

The film crossed into cultural phenomenon and must-see territory somewhere along the way. It deciminated records. The previous highest September debut held by Hotel Transylvania 2 at $48 million? It topped that by $75 million. The all-time horror opening record of $52 million by Paranormal Activity 3? Bested that by over $70 million.

It also scored the second largest R rated premiere ever behind Deadpool ($132M). As far as 2017 goes, it ranks third – meaning it debuted higher than Wonder Woman, Spider–Man: Homecoming and The Fate of the Furious.

Sometimes a picture manages to catch a wave of anticipation that few can see. It accomplished that and then some. Chapter 2 will be out in two years and expect lots of Stephen King remakes to go into production shortly.

There were other movies playing even if no one else really noticed. The Reese Witherspoon rom com Home Again couldn’t overcome its mostly poor reviews to serve as counter programming to the It juggernaut. It earned just $8.5 million for second, below my $11.3M projection.

The Hitman’s Bodyguard was third after three weeks on top with $4.8 million compared to my $5.4M prediction. It’s earned $64 million overall.

Annabelle: Creation was fourth with $4 million (I said $3.4M) as it nears the century mark with $96 million.

Wind River rounded out the top five with $3.1 million (I said $3.6M) to bring its total to $24 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

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