Box Office Predictions: December 29-January 1

Well folks – here we are as 2017 closes out with another four-day holiday weekend and it’s enough to make a great mathematician’s head spin.

Blogger’s note: I am not a great mathematician. Nevertheless, I will plow forward with estimates as there’s no new releases. Yet there are a multitude of holiday holdovers looking to match or even surpass what they accomplished this past Christmas weekend.

You have to travel all the way to 2006 for the last time Christmas and New Year’s Day fell on a Monday. When that occurred 11 years ago, the bulk of pictures significantly exceeded the three-day grosses from the December 22-24 frame. Most even experienced an uptick from the Yuletide four-day frame. We should see that happen again as moviegoers have lots of free time during this end of year period, they’re using those gift certificates, and the kiddos are off school.

Here’s how I have the top 10 looking to close out another year on the box office charts:

**Please note that the increases noted would be from the three-day Christmas grosses (22-24) to the four-day New Year’s weekend predictions…

1. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Predicted Gross: $77.8 million (representing an increase of 9%)

2. Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle

Predicted Gross: $58 million (representing an increase of 59%)

3. Pitch Perfect 3

Predicted Gross: $25.1 million (representing an increase of 26%)

4. The Greatest Showman

Predicted Gross: $14.9 million (representing an increase of 69%)

5. Ferdinand

Predicted Gross: $12.5 million (representing an increase of 71%)

6. Coco

Predicted Gross: $9.8 million (representing an increase of 82%)

7. Darkest Hour

Predicted Gross: $7.3 million (representing an increase of 88%)

8. Downsizing

Predicted Gross: $6.1 million (representing an increase of 23%)

9. The Shape of Water

Predicted Gross: $5.7 million (representing an increase of 90%)

10. All the Money in the World

Predicted Gross: $5.2 million

Box Office Results (December 22-25)

It was indeed a bustling Christmas weekend as some newbies rose above expectations while others fell considerably short. There were also impressive expansions of awards contenders.

Yet as anticipated, Star Wars: The Last Jedi easily took the top spot in weekend #2. However, it did so with numbers far short of my estimate. The eighth episode of the beloved franchise took in $99 million (well short of my $129 million estimate) for an overall tally of $395 million.

Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle gave Sony reason to celebrate with an estimated (final number still not in on Wednesday at noon for some reason) $55.4 million over the four-day. This tops my $40.5 million prediction. Since its Wednesday debut, Jungle has amassed $72 million (above my $55.1 million take). It would appear this franchise will continue on.

Pitch Perfect 3 opened in third to a decent $26.4 million. Still, that’s under my $33.6 million forecast and well under what its predecessor achieved two years ago.

Hugh Jackman’s The Greatest Showman posted fourth with $14.4 million for the four-day and $19 million since its Wednesday start. These are a touch under my respective estimates of $16.1 million and $22.4 million. That’s a tad underwhelming, but I see it holding up well this weekend.

Ferdinand rounded out the top five with $10.1 million (I said $11.2 million) for a $29 million overall tally.

Coco was sixth with $8.1 million (I said $8.8 million) as the Pixar flick has grossed $164 million total.

Debuting in seventh and quite disappointingly was Matt Damon’s Downsizing at just $7.6 million compared to my $11.7 million prediction. With mixed critical reaction and poor word-of-mouth, look for this to diminish fast.

Darkest Hour, which boasts Best Actor Oscar front-runner Gary Oldman as Winston Churchill, was 8th as it expanded its theater count. It grossed $5.5 million and I incorrectly had it outside the top 10.

Besides Downsizing, the other new flop of the weekend was Owen Wilson/Ed Helms comedy Father Figures. The poorly reviewed pic opened ninth at just $5.4 million (under my $8.6 million estimate).

The Shape of Water (another Oscar contender) took 10th as it opened wider with $4.4 million. Again, I missed the mark and had this outside the top 10.

And that does it for now, ladies and gents! It’s been quite a treat bringing you my box office predictions for 2017 and it will continue into 2018! Until then…

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