Box Office Predictions: January 26-28

The month of January at the box office ends with one big new release and it’s Maze Runner: The Death Cure. The third franchise entry will look to finally dislodge Jumanji from its perch atop the charts. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

As you can see, I have Death not reaching the heights of its two predecessors. That said, even with a low 20s debut, it should be enough to allow it to become the first 2018 release to open #1 in 2018.

The other wide release is the expansion of Hostiles with Christian Bale. Despite stellar reviews, the once awards hopeful has been flying under the radar and posting lackluster per screen averages in its limited release. Current screen counts show it rolling out to 3000 screens. I’m a little skeptical it reaches that many (we’ll see on Thursday). If it does, I’ll peg its opening at $4.8 million and that leaves it outside the top five. If the theater count changes by Thursday, so will my estimate.

With competition rather light this weekend, holdovers should experience smallish declines with the seemingly unstoppable Jumanji, The Post and The Greatest Showman perhaps being the largest benefactors.

And with that, my top 5 projections for the weekend:

1. Maze Runner: The Death Cure

Predicted Gross: $22.8 million

2. Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle

Predicted Gross: $14.9 million

3. The Post

Predicted Gross: $9.4 million

4. 12 Strong 

Predicted Gross: $8.9 million

5. The Greatest Showman

Predicted Gross: $8.5 million

Box Office Results (January 19-21)

For the third weekend in a row, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle dominated the box office charts while newcomers posted better than expected results. The franchise reboot took in $19.5 million and I was right there with my estimate of $19.6 million. It’s taken in $316 million overall.

The Chris Hemsworth led true life military tale 12 Strong took the runner-up position with a decent $15.8 million, topping my $13.9 million. That’s a smidge above what was expected of it.

The story of the weekend may well be the over performance of Gerard Butler’s Den of Thieves, which surprised everyone with a robust $15.2 million debut in third… way above my $6.1 million projection. It actually had the highest per screen average of all the wide releases over the weekend.

The Post was fourth in its second weekend of release with $11.7 million, shy of my $14 million projection for a total of $44 million.

The Greatest Showman rounded out the top 5 with $10.6 million (I said $9.9 million) for a tally of $113 million.

Finally, I incorrectly had The Commuter inside the top 5, but it was seventh with $6.6 million (I said $7.6 million). It’s two-week total is $25 million.

And that does it for now as far as box office predictions…

However, if you missed my FINAL Oscar predictions (they’re out tomorrow morning), you can find them here:

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