Box Office Predictions: January 30-February 1

The final weekend of January at the box office should bring an easy three-peat for Clint Eastwood’s American Sniper. Three newbies make their way to the screen: the found footage sci-fi pic Project Almanac, Kevin Costner interracial drama Black or White, and murder mystery The Loft. You can peruse my individual prediction posts on each here:

Project Almanac Box Office Prediction

Black Or White Box Office Prediction

The Loft Box Office Prediction

American Sniper continues to confound all expectations and, as mentioned, should easily steamroll all competitors.

Almanac appears to have the best chance to do decent business and I don’t expect much out of the other two. In fact, I have the latter two films debuting at seventh and eighth place.

As for holdovers, current #2 The Boy Next Door should suffer the furthest drop in its sophomore frame. Paddington and The Wedding Ringer should stay in the top five while Oscar hopeful The Imitation Game is experiencing very small drop-offs and could top both Black or White and The Loft.

Two important factors to keep in mind that could effect the box office this weekend: The Super Bowl and the aftermath of a massive winter storm expected to pound the East Coast. Both could trend my predicted numbers downward.

And with that, we’ll do a Top 8 for this weekend:

1. American Sniper

Predicted Gross: $42.1 million (representing a drop of 34%)

2. Project Almanac

Predicted Gross: $16.4 million

3. Paddington

Predicted Gross: $7.7 million (representing a drop of 37%)

4. The Boy Next Door

Predicted Gross: $7.5 million (representing a drop of 49%)

5. The Wedding Ringer

Predicted Gross: $6.7 million (representing a drop of 41%)

6. The Imitation Game

Predicted Gross: $6 million (representing a drop of 14%)

7. Black or White

Predicted Gross: $5.6 million

8. The Loft

Predicted Gross: $4.8 million

Box Office Results (January 23-25)

The cultural and financial phenomenon that is American Sniper continued to keep jaws on the floor in its second weekend of wide release. Dropping just 28%, it grossed $64.6 million – well above my $50.4M projection. That’s the eight largest sophomore frame in box office history. The Best Picture nominee has grossed $200.4M so far and should easily surpass $350M with $400M being a possibility. That means it is likely to end up as the largest grosser that was released in 2014 (in limited release, for awards consideration), passing The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 1. Unreal.

The Jennifer Lopez thriller The Boy Next Door debuted solidly with $14.9 million – on par with my $14.7M prediction. Considering its low-budget, this is a fine debut for the poorly reviewed flick.

Paddington was third with $12.2 million – in line with my $12.6M estimate. The children’s pic has earned $39M at press time. The Kevin Hart comedy The Wedding Ringer earned fourth with $11.3 million, just under my $12.1M projection. It too has amassed a decent $39M so far.

The failure of two newcomers (we’ll get to that in a second) allowed Taken 3 to place fifth with $7.4 million with a total of $75M. I did not have it predicted in the top five. Same goes for The Imitation Game which was sixth with $6.9 million and has earned $60M (making it the second highest grossing Best Picture nominee after Sniper).

The George Lucas produced animated pic Strange Magic stumbled with a debut of only $5.5 million for seventh place. I gave it too much credit and estimated an opening of $8.6M.

Then… Mortdecai. Johnny Depp suffered a colossal bomb as the critically drubbed comedy placed eighth with a pathetic $4.2 million (under my $7.4M estimate). The star clearly needs to start picking better projects as his recent resume is littered with duds that include Dark Shadows and Transcendence.

And that’ll do it for now, folks! And remember… should you need to conduct a super secret business meeting this week, go see Mortdecai and you’ll probably have the theater to yourselves. Until next time…

Black Or White Box Office Prediction

Kevin Costner is certainly pumping out the movies and this Friday comes Black or White, an interracial drama that finds the actor trying to maintain custody of his granddaughter. Octavia Spencer and Anthony Mackie costar. The small budget pic premiered last fall at the Toronto Film Festival to mixed reviews. It was released in limited fashion in December for an Oscar qualifying run which didn’t pan out whatsoever.

The film stands at a meager 38% on Rotten Tomatoes and it’s hard to imagine this gathering much buzz. Additionally it’s being released on a relatively low 1500 estimated screens. It has been quite some time since Costner had drawing power at the box office and Black or White should be in line for a minor debut.

Black or White opening weekend prediction: $5.6 million

For my Project Almanac prediction, click here:

Project Almanac Box Office Prediction

For my prediction on The Loft, click here:

The Loft Box Office Prediction

The Loft Box Office Prediction

The thriller The Loft, out Friday, may be the definition of a January dumping ground picture. Both Warner Bros and Universal chose against distributing it. The low budget murder mystery was filmed three and a half years ago and collected dust on the shelf and the marketing campaign has been lackluster.

Even though it features recognizable faces like Karl Urban, James Marsden, Prison Break’s Wentworth Miller and Modern Family’s Eric Stonestreet, it’s almost surprising the eventual distributor Open Road didn’t choose to go the direct to VOD route. I don’t see much room for The Loft to gain much traction this weekend.

The Loft opening weekend prediction: $4.8 million

For my Project Almanac prediction, click here:

Project Almanac Box Office Prediction

For my Black or White prediction, click here:

Black Or White Box Office Prediction

Project Almanac Box Office Prediction

Paramount Pictures and MTV Films are hoping to squeeze more mileage of the found footage genre with Project Almanac, out Friday. The pic stars a cast of unknowns and centers around the discovery of a time machine.

Shot for a meager reported budget of $12 million, the studios are wishing for a similar result to what Chronicle did three years ago around the same time frame. That found footage release managed a terrific $22 million out of the gate. I’m not as confident that Almanac will generate the same heat. Yet I will predict it grosses mid to high teens, which should be solid enough for a #2 showing behind the American Sniper juggernaut. In doing so, it would easily make its budget back in one weekend.

Project Almanac opening weekend prediction: $16.4 million

For my prediction on The Loft, click here:

The Loft Box Office Prediction

For my Black or White prediction, click here:

Black Or White Box Office Prediction

Box Office Predictions: January 23-25

Three new movies take on the daunting task of attempting to unseat the box office juggernaut that is American Sniper. They are the Jennifer Lopez thriller The Boy Next Door, Johnny Depp comedy Mortdecai, and George Lucas produced 3D animated pic Strange Magic. You can find my individual prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/01/17/the-boy-next-door-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/01/17/mortdecai-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/01/17/strange-magic-box-office-prediction/

We’ll cut right to the chase here: not a one of them has a chance of taking on Sniper. I look for Lopez’s flick to appeal to a female audience and generate the best debut among the newbies that should be good enough for a #2 opening. As for Magic and Mortdecai, neither look to make much of a dent.

As mentioned, the jaw dropping opening of American Sniper should mean it easily retains its top spot. Both Paddington and The Wedding Ringer premiered solidly and I look for them to be right behind Door in their second weekends. If either Magic or Mortdecai fail to perform even up to my meager expectations, it could mean Taken 3 remains in the top six as it should gross around $7 million in its third weekend.

And with that, estimates for this weekend’s Top 6:

1. American Sniper

Predicted Gross: $50.4 million (representing a drop of 43%)

2. The Boy Next Door

Predicted Gross: $14.7 million

3. Paddington

Predicted Gross: $12.6 million (representing a drop of 33%)

4. The Wedding Ringer

Predicted Gross: $12.1 million (representing a drop of 41%)

5. Strange Magic

Predicted Gross: $8.6 million

6. Mortdecai

Predicted Gross: $7.4 million

Box Office Results (January 16-18)

This weekend, Clint Eastwood’s American Sniper became a cultural phenomenon. No one saw a gross this huge coming as it performed similar to what a superhero summer tent pole would earn. It took in $89.2 million over the Friday to Sunday portion of the weekend (I predicted less than half of that at $40.6M). For the long MLK weekend, it made $107 million. Unreal. Clearly the combination of critical acclaim, Oscar nominations, and highly effective trailers and TV spots did the job.

The Kevin Hart comedy The Wedding Ringer had a sturdy second place opening at $20.6 million, however it was below my $29.4M estimate. Over the four-day it made $24 million.

The children’s bear tale Paddington took in $18.9 million from Friday to Sunday, under my $22.3M projection. The well-reviewed pic amassed a pleasing $25.4M over the four day portion of the weekend.

Taken 3 dipped to fourth in its sophomore frame with $14.7 million, under my $17.1M prediction. The action sequel stands at $65 million at press time.

Selma was fifth in its second weekend in release with $8.7 million – not matching my generous $12.5M estimate. I thought the MLK holiday might assist a little more in bumping its grosses, though it’s worth noting that yesterday’s holiday gave the pic its largest single day during its run. It’s earned $31M so far.

Finally… Blackhat. Oh boy. The Michael Mann directed thriller with Chris Hemsworth bombed placing 10th with a pathetic $3.9 million. I predicted $13.6M. Oops. The heavy competition, weak reviews, and middling marketing campaign sunk this project, which reportedly cost $70M. Blackhat easily qualifies as the first enormous failure of 2015.

In case you didn’t notice, everything but Sniper grossed less than I figured. It’s no accident. Sniper unquestionably had an effect on the viability of the other releases and Sniper‘s debut will definitely rank as one of the box office top stories of this year.

And there you have it! Until next time….

Strange Magic Box Office Prediction

He may not be involved in 2015’s most anticipated film that carries on the franchise he started, but George Lucas is credited with coming up with the story for Strange Magic, out Friday. The 3D animated musical fantasy comes from LucasFilm and features the voices of Alan Cumming, Evan Rachel Wood, Kristen Chenoweth (who also appears in this weekend’s The Boy Next Door), Maya Rudolph, and Alfred Molina.

Competition for family audiences is there with the well performing Paddington entering its sophomore frame. The marketing campaign for Strange Magic has been rather quiet and it doesn’t help that the story isn’t based on a well known property. Nor does it have the trusted Disney or Pixar moniker.

All that considered, I’ll predict this doesn’t even reach a double digit debut out of the gate.

Strange Magic opening weekend prediction: $8.6 million

For my prediction on Mortdecai, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/01/17/mortdecai-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on The Boy Next Door, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/01/17/the-boy-next-door-box-office-prediction/

The Boy Next Door Box Office Prediction

In recent years Jennifer Lopez has become known more for American Idol than her once stellar film career. This Friday, she headlines the psychological thriller The Boy Next Door and it could be primed for a healthy opening. Costars include Ryan Guzman, Kristen Chenoweth and John Corbett. Rob Cohen, director of XXX and the original Fast and Furious flick, is behind the camera.

The Boy Next Door could benefit from a decent female audience turnout. Its reported tiny budget of only $4 million virtually assures profitability. Reviews aren’t likely to be on its side, but that shouldn’t matter a whole lot. I envision this performing on a similar scale to The Call, Halle Berry’s thriller which debuted with a higher than expected $17 million nearly two years ago. That means Jenny from the Block could double the grosses of Johnny (Depp) from Mortdecai this weekend.

The Boy Next Door opening weekend prediction: $14.7 million

For my Mortdecai prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/01/17/mortdecai-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on Strange Magic, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/01/17/strange-magic-box-office-prediction/

Mortdecai Box Office Prediction

During this decade, Johnny Depp has seen his share of box office disappointments that include The Tourist, Dark Shadows, The Lone Ranger and Transcendence. This Friday, the comedy Mortdecai will succeed or fail solely on the star’s drawing power. Considering the recent history, it could mean a soft opening.

Depp collaborates for the second time with his Secret Window director David Koepp. The supporting cast is filled with famous faces that include Gwyneth Paltrow, Ewan McGregor, Paul Bettany, Olivia Munn and Aubrey Plaza. Reviews have yet to materialize – usually not a good sign. The trailers and TV spots have been unremarkable at best.

It’s hard for me to envision a scenario where Mortdecai performs well. I believe it will struggle to reach double digits and won’t. Lionsgate is on record saying they’d like to see Mortdecai become a franchise. After next weekend’s opening, that talk should cease and my prediction would mark Depp’s lowest debut since 2011’s The Rum Diary.

Mortdecai opening weekend prediction: $7.4 million

For my prediction on The Boy Next Door, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/01/17/the-boy-next-door-box-office-prediction/

For my Strange Magic prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/01/17/strange-magic-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Predictions: January 16-18

Four high profile pictures enter the marketplace this Friday. They are Clint Eastwood’s Oscar buzz worthy American Sniper starring Bradley Cooper, the Kevin Hart comedy The Wedding Ringer, children’s pic Paddington, and Chris Hemsworth headlining and Michael Mann directed cyber thriller Blackhat. You can find my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/01/10/american-sniper-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/01/11/blackhat-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/01/11/paddington-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/01/10/the-wedding-ringer-box-office-prediction/

It’s Sniper that I anticipate ruling the box office weekend with Ringer and Paddington debuting solidly and in the runner up positions. As for Blackhat, it may settle for a weak fifth place premiere, behind current champ Taken 3 in its second weekend. The Liam Neeson sequel should fall hard in its sophomore frame like its predecessor, but its better than anticipated debut makes that a non story.

Finally, Oscar contender Selma opened to less than expected results. Yet I look for it to gain audience in its second frame considering the weekend is named for its subject, Dr. Martin Luther King.

With that, a top six projection for the weekend:

1. American Sniper

Predicted Gross: $40.6 million

2. The Wedding Ringer

Predicted Gross: $29.4 million

3. Paddington

Predicted Gross: $22.3 million

4. Taken 3

Predicted Gross: $17.1 million (representing a drop of 56%)

5. Blackhat

Predicted Gross: $13.6 million

6. Selma

Predicted Gross: $12.5 million (representing an increase of 12%)

BOX OFFICE RESULTS (JANUARY 9-11)

As widely expected, Taken 3 easily knocked The Hobbit off its three week reign at #1. The critically drubbed sequel took in an impressive $39.2 million – besting my $32.8M prediction. Neeson says this is the finale of the franchise but something tells me the studio will figure out a way otherwise.

Selma opened second. As previously mentioned, the $11.3 million it earned is underwhelming (I said $17.2M). Yet it should experience low drop offs in subsequent weekends.

2014 holdovers rounded out the top five and all held up a bit worse than my estimates. Into the Woods placed third with $9.5 million ($11.8M prediction). The Hobbit was fourth with $9.3 million ($12.1M prediction). Unbroken was fifth with $8.1 million ($11.7M prediction). Their respective totals stand at $105, $236, and $101 million.

Lastly, Paul Thomas Anderson’s Inherent Vice expanded to over 400 screens and did just OK. Its $2.7 million 11th place roll out did manage to top my $1.8M projection.

And that’s all for now, folks!

Blackhat Box Office Prediction

Its reported $80 million budget represents the largest of all the four films rolling out over Martin Luther King weekend, yet Michael Mann’s cyber thriller Blackhat is likely to be the lowest opener among them. Thor himself Chris Hemsworth headlines the pic with Viola Davis in the supporting cast.

Michael Mann has been behind the camera for many hits that include The Last of the Mohicans, Heat, Collateral and Public Enemies, among others. Hemsworth is widely known for his Thor and Avengers work, but this will be a true test of his box office drawing power.

There have been no reviews released so far, which is curious. The January roll out makes me question just how confident (or not) Universal Pictures is with the project. Blackhat’s stumbling block appears to be its severe competiton. American Sniper seems poised for a big debut and Taken 3 should siphon off viewers as well in its sophomore frame.

Add that up and I look for a muted haul for Blackhat next weekend.

Blackhat opening weekend prediction: $13.6 million