It may star a pair of Oscar winners in Nicole Kidman and Colin Firth, but the thriller Before I Go to Sleep seems likely to be a snoozer at the box office when it opens Friday.
The pic is receiving mixed reviews, but more importantly, it’s received little TV advertisement at all stateside. I’m frankly a little surprised this didn’t go direct to VOD instead of a 1700 screen theatrical debut. If this managed to make over $5 million out of the gate, its production company should consider that a small victory. I’ll predict it doesn’t even get that far.
Before I Go to Sleep opening weekend prediction: $3.5 million
It may be destined to become a cult classic based on its early reviews as Jake Gyllenhall plays a journalist in the L.A. crime underground in Nightcrawler, out Friday.
Dan Gilroy directs the picture which costars Rene Russo, Riz Ahmed, and Bill Paxton. Critical buzz is quite positive after it screened at film festivals and this continues Gyllenhall’s trend of picking less commercial and more artistically relevant material. However, that doesn’t mean you should expect much for its opening weekend. After all, “cult film” usually indicates it won’t make much in its initial run.
To me, the question is whether or not Nightcrawler manages double digits and I’ll predict it falls short of the mark.
Nightcrawler opening weekend prediction: $8.1 million
For my Before I Go to Sleep prediction, click here:
Well, Thursday is considerably later than I do most of my box office predictions (Sunday is the day), but we need to make an exception this week. It wasn’t until this afternoon that the theater count was released for St. Vincent, out tomorrow. The comedy/drama stars the incomparable Mr. Bill Murray with a supporting cast featuring Melissa McCarthy, Naomi Watts, and Chris O’Dowd.
St. Vincent played the film fest circuit earlier this fall and is said to be an audience pleaser. It’s been in limited release in major cities for the last two weeks. Critics have been mostly kind and it holds a respectable 74% on Rotten Tomatoes. The announcement of the screen count was a bit of a surprise: 2,282 which certainly classifies it as a wide release. This could serve as effective counter programming to this week’s other newbies, horror flick Ouija and Keanu Reeves actioner John Wick. Females could end up being a large percentage of its opening weekend audience, in addition to die-hard Murray aficionados.
That said, I still don’t believe this manages to crack the top five. An opening in double digits is certainly possible, but I believe it’ll fall under that for a sixth place debut.
St. Vincent opening weekend prediction: $8.6 million
Horror and action fans have newbies to feast on this weekend as Ouija and John Wick open Friday, attempting to displace Fury from its perch atop the box office. You can find my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
I believe the Halloween season should allow Ouija to make it to #1, though my estimate is slightly higher than others I’ve seen. Being that it’s a horror flick, it could also surpass my expectations. If only there was a board game I could ask about it…
As far as John Wick, I’m not expecting much out of it as I don’t think it’s been marketed well enough to make it a must see among action fans.
Fury may experience a smallish decline next weekend and I anticipate the same for both Gone Girl and The Book of Life.
And with that, my predictions for this weekend’s top five:
1. Ouija
Predicted Gross: $24.9 million
2. Fury
Predicted Gross: $14.8 million (representing a drop of 37%)
3. Gone Girl
Predicted Gross: $11.6 million (representing a drop of 34%)
4. The Book of Life
Predicted Gross: $11.3 million (representing a drop of 34%)
5. John Wick
Predicted Gross: $11 million
Box Office Results (October 17-19)
As expected, Brad Pitt’s Fury opened in first place with a respectable though unspectacular $23.7 million, a bit below my $26.4M projection. With decent reviews and an A- Cinemascore grade, it should hold up reasonably well in subsequent weekends.
Megahit Gone Girl slipped to second in its third weekend with $17.5 million, right on par with my $17.6M estimate. The David Fincher pic has amassed $106M so far.
The animated feature The Book of Life opened in third with a solid $17 million, slightly above my $15.6M prediction. Like most kiddie pics, it should hold up well for the foreseeable future (at least until Big Hero 6 opens).
Alexander and the Horrible, Terrible, No Good, Very Bad Day was fourth in its sophomore weekend with $11.4 million, just below my $12.5M estimate. It’s taken in $36 million in ten days and may reach around $65M domestic.
Opening with a thud in fifth was the Nicholas Sparks adaptation The Best of Me with just $10 million, well under my generous $17.8M projection. The poorly reviewed romantic drama marks the worst opening ever for a Sparks adapted novel. Perhaps opening it in February would’ve been smarter.
Slipping from second to sixth was Dracula Untold with $9.9 million, close to my $10.7M prediction. The Universal monster pic has taken in $40 million in two weeks and should finish with about $60M.
It’s been over a decade since Keanu Reeves saw box office fireworks with The Matrix trilogy and we’re far removed from his ability to open something like 2005’s Constantine and 2008’s The Day the Earth Stood Still to $30 million debuts. Expectations are considerably lower for this Friday’s John Wick, starring Reeves as a hitman out for vengeance.
Wick is much more likely to see an opening similar to the star’s 2008 pic Street Kings, which got off to a $12.4M start. Despite its so far favorable reviews, Wick‘s TV spots and trailers probably haven’t done enough to cause action fans to flock to it. It also doesn’t help that it has direct competition in the form of Fury‘s sophomore weekend. I’ll predict this barely gets past double digits for a lackluster beginning and that most genre fans will wait for VOD and cable for this.
Looking back now, isn’t it a little surprising that it’s taken this long for a horror flick named Ouija to find its way into the marketplace? That issue will be rectified Friday when Michael Bay’s production company unleashes the picture based on the creepy Hasbro board game.
With a cast consisting of relative unknowns, Ouija‘s selling point is clearly two things and two things only: its title and release date. Both should work to its advantage and lead it to a #1 debut. Horror pics are notoriously difficult to predict. For example, no one (including this blogger) saw a $37 million opening coming for Annabelle earlier this month. That massive hit may have given some genre enthusiasts their fix for the month and it could negatively hinder Ouija‘s prospects.
Still, this should manage to surpass $20M while not reaching the heights of that demonic doll.
A trio of new pictures open this Friday to try and end the two week reign of Gone Girl at the top spot: Brad Pitt’s World War II actioner Fury, the Nicholas Sparks adapted romantic drama The Best of Me, and the animated tale The Book of Life. You can read my detailed posts on each here:
It’s hard to imagine Fury not having enough firepower to debut at #1, though The Best of Me or The Book of Life or both could surpass expectations. The real battle could be for the runner-up position as Gone Girl is likely to suffer a small decline and Best and Book should open in the same range.
As for other holdovers, I expect Alexander and Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Day to experience a slimmer decline than current #2 Dracula Untold.
And with that, we’ll do a top six projections for the weekend:
1. Fury
Predicted Gross: $26.4 million
2. The Best of Me
Predicted Gross: $17.8 million
3. Gone Girl
Predicted Gross: $17.6 million (representing a drop of 33%)
4. The Book of Life
Predicted Gross: $15.6 million
5. Alexander and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Day
Predicted Gross: $12.5 million (representing a drop of 32%)
6. Dracula Untold
Predicted Gross: $10.7 million (representing a drop of 54%)
Box Office Results (October 10-12)
David Fincher’s Gone Girl held off newcomers to remain atop the charts for the second week in a row. The water cooler hit based on Gillian Flynn’s novel took in $26.4 million, ahead of my $24.2M prediction and has amassed a terrific $77 million in ten days.
Dracula Untold had a robust beginning to the tune of $23.5 million, well beyond my meager $14.4M estimate. The pic is likely to fade rather quickly, but Universal Pictures has good reason to be pleased with its results.
The family comedy Alexander and its long title of a bad day debuted healthily with $18.3 million, right in range with my $18.7M prediction. The Steve Carell pic should hold up decently in subsequent weekends.
Horror spinoff Annabelle, as expected, dropped precipitously after its strong opening last weekend. It earned $15.8 million, barely above my $14.8M projection. It’s made $61 million so far.
Despite star Robert Downey Jr.’s relentless promotion last week, The Judge had difficulty luring viewers. It grossed just $13.1 million, below my $16.4M estimate. Mixed reviews may have kept some adult viewers away.
Finally, the steamy drama Addicted posted an impressive $7.4 million on a limited number of screens for a seventh place start. This outshined my $4.5M prediction.
20th Century Fox is hoping family audiences turn out for The Book of Life, opening Friday. The 3D animated comedy comes from producer Guillermo del Toro and features the voices of Diego Luna, Zoe Saldana, Channing Tatum, Christina Applegate, Ice Cube, and frequent del Toro collaborator Ron Perlman.
Family competition does exist with the decently performing Alexander and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Day entering its second weekend. As with most animated features that don’t have the Disney/Pixar label, The Book of Life faces an uphill battle to truly break out. It could cater to Hispanic families in a way few genre titles have, but I’m not sure that’s enough to get it past $20 million (though that’s not out of the question).
As I see it, this should open in the same mid to high teens range as recent animated titles Coraline, Paranorman, Free Birds and Escape from Planet Earth.
The Book of Life opening weekend prediction: $15.6 million
Nicholas Sparks has been a profitable box office commodity for studios adapting his works and this Friday, we’ll see if that trend continues with The Best of Me. The romantic drama (it’s Sparks… did you think it was an action thriller??) comes from director Michael Hoffman and stars James Marsden and Michelle Monaghan.
The pic will no doubt cater to females and there is competition from the megahit and current two week #1 performer Gone Girl, which will be entering its third weekend. Since The Notebook a decade ago, let’s take a look at subsequent Sparks releases and what they’ve grossed in their debut frames:
Nights in Rodanthe (2008): $13.4 million
The Last Song (2010): $16 million
The Lucky One (2012): $22.5 million
Safe Haven (2013): $21.4 million
Based on those numbers, a premiere in the mid teens to low twenties is obviously the most probable scenario. I think The Best of Me won’t get past $20M, but should manage to outpace both Rodanthe and The Last Song while not reaching the heights of the last two entries.
The Best of Me opening weekend prediction: $17.8 million
Five years ago, the combination of Brad Pitt and World War II produced robust box office results with Inglourious Basterds. We’ll see if lightning strikes twice in Fury, opening Friday. The WWII action pic comes from End of Watch director David Ayer. Pitt headlines alongside supporting players Shia LaBeouf, Logan Lerman, Michael Pena, and Jason Isaacs.
Of course, the aforementioned Basterds (which debuted to $38 million) had the advantage of having Quentin Tarantino and Oscar buzz – something Fury has neither of. The pic was originally thought to be an awards contender, but mixed reviews have rendered that mute (it stands at a respectable 63% on Rotten Tomatoes).
Fury still should succeed at attracting the primarily male action crowd and it shouldn’t have a problem debuting at #1 next weekend. Some estimates put this at getting above $30M, but I’m skeptical. A mid 20s debut similar to what Captain Phillips accomplished last October seems most likely.
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