It’s already achieved financial success in the United Kingdom and on Friday, StudioCanal Pictures is hoping Paddington posts solid numbers stateside as well. Based on the well known children’s stories by Michael Bond, this bear tale features Ben Whishaw (Q from the Bond flicks) as the voice of the title character. The cast includes several recognizable faces including Hugh Bonneville, Sally Hawkins, Jim Broadbent and Nicole Kidman.
Reviews have been quite strong as it holds a 97% rating on Rotten Tomatoes. Paddington could further benefit from a lack of family fare as Night at the Museum and Annie have now made the bulk of their money. I’ll predict this bear manages an opening somewhere between $20 and $25 million for a respectable beginning.
Paddington opening weekend prediction: $22.3 million
Never mind that its premise sounds somewhat similar to 2009’s I Love You, Man. The considerable star power of Kevin Hart should be enough to propel The Wedding Ringer to a strong opening. Hart headlines as a consultant tasked with providing best man services for dudes without friends. Josh Gad costars as his latest employer.
Just last year over MLK weekend, Hart found himself with the highest grossing January opening of all time with Ride Along. It began a year of hits for the actor that included About Last Night and Think Like a Man Too. Ringer seems unlikely to debut in the neighborhood of Ride Along. To be fair, however, no one saw that film’s massive premiere coming.
I’ll estimate that The Wedding Ringer opens more in line with Hart’s Think Like a Man sequel from last summer for a solid start that should put it in second position after American Sniper.
The Wedding Ringer opening weekend prediction: $29.4 million
Expanding nationwide one day after Oscar nominations are revealed, Clint Eastwood’s American Sniper hits theaters Friday. Bradley Cooper has been getting some of the best reviews of his career playing the real life title character Chris Kyle, known for having the most kills in U.S. military history. Sienna Miller costars as his wife.
Trailers and TV spots have been quite effective and the solid critical reaction helps. Sniper seems likely to receive a Best Picture nomination, though that’s not guaranteed (my final predictions arrive Tuesday). The pic could particularly play well in middle America.
Last January, another war themed flick Lone Survivor debuted to higher than anticipated grosses with $38 million. That would seem to be a fair range to put Sniper in. In fact, I believe it could contend for biggest January premiere ever. That honor currently belongs to Ride Along, which took in $41.5 million a year ago. My estimate has Sniper falling just shy of that mark.
American Sniper opening weekend prediction: $40.6 million
For my prediction on The Wedding Ringer, click here:
The second box office weekend of the new year gives us three new releases: Liam Neeson’s return to his action franchise Taken 3, the civil rights awards hopeful Selma, and Paul Thomas Anderson’s Inherent Vice. You can find my individual prediction posts on them here:
Taken 3 should have no trouble opening at the top spot while Selma should manage a solid second place debut. Due to its limited number of screens it’s premiering on, Inherent Vice is likely to land far outside the top five. I have it earning $1.8 million.
As for holdovers such as The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies, Into the Woods, and Unbroken, all should lose less than half their audience from the previous frame. It could be a real fight between them for numbers 3-5. The same cannot be said for The Woman in Black 2: Angel of Death, which is primed for a hefty fall that’s not uncommon for horror pics.
And with that, my estimates for the weekend’s top 5:
1. Taken 3
Predicted Gross: $32.8 million
2. Selma
Predicted Gross: $17.2 million
3. The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
Predicted Gross: $12.1 million (representing a drop of 45%)
4. Into the Woods
Predicted Gross: $11.8 million (representing a drop of 37%)
5. Unbroken
Predicted Gross: $11.7 million (representing a drop of 35%)
Box Office Results (January 2-4)
As expected, the third and final Hobbit effort spent its third weekend at #1 with $21.7 million, just under my $23.3M prediction. Its total stands at $220 million and should get to around $275M domestic.
In second in its sophomore frame was Into the Woods with $18.7 million – right on target with my $18.5M projection. Its total since Christmas stands at $90 million and $150M is in sight. Another Christmas release, Unbroken, was third with $18.1 million compared to my $19.2M estimate. Its cume is up to $87 million. It could end up between $140-145M.
The Woman in Black 2: The Angel of Death was the weekend’s only new offering and it performed better than anticipated with $15 million, ahead of my $11.1M prediction. As mentioned earlier, look for it to fall precipitously next weekend.
Family holdovers made up the five and six slots, both in their third weekends. Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb took in $14.5 million, on target with my $14.3M prognosis. Annie made $11.2 million and I said… $11.2 million! Boom! Their respective total grosses are $89M and $72M.
A serious Oscar hopeful expands nationwide this Friday as Selma opens. Focusing on the 1965 voting rights marches, the film casts David Oyelowo as Dr. Martin Luther King and the supporting cast includes Tom Wilkinson, Tim Roth, Carmen Ejogo and Oprah Winfrey, who also serves as a producer.
Selma is considered to be at the top of the list for potential Oscar winners. Director Ana DuVernay is likely to be the first African American woman to receive a nomination. Reviews have been strong and its Rotten Tomatoes meter is at 100%.
It’s easy to see where they’d be a wide interest and I expect Selma’s debut to be strong. My main challenge here: I’ve yet to see a count of screens for its expansion Friday. For now, I’ll assume a roll out of around 2000 screens. If that’s the case, I look for a per screen average similar to the last picture that Oprah was involved with, Lee Daniels’ The Butler.
That would get in the high teens for its opening a week before Oscar nominations are revealed.
Paul Thomas Anderson has certainly been making some of the most fascinating pictures of the last nearly two decades with Boogie Nights, Magnolia, There Will Be Blood and The Master among his credits. This Friday, his latest effort Inherent Vice makes its debut. The crime thriller/comedy boasts an all star cast that includes Joaquin Phoenix, Josh Brolin, Reese Witherspoon, Benicio del Toro, Maya Rudolph, Martin Short and Owen Wilson.
Based on the novel by Thomas Pynchon, critical notices for Vice has been generally positive if a bit under Anderson’s normal acclaim. Its Rotten Tomatoes meter stands at 71% currently. Like most of the director’s work, this is certainly not expected to be a blockbuster and is primarily aimed at core fans. As expected, it’s had a successful run in limited release but faces the question as to how well it plays nationwide. Currently estimates put it at just over 400 theaters (relatively low) Friday.
Inherent Vice could pull in about the same per screen average as Joaquin’s last pic Her which expanded one year ago. I’ll estimste it gets a little higher since it’s on considerably less screens, but that still leaves it struggling to reach $2 million out of the gate.
Inherent Vice opening weekend prediction: $1.8 million
The first weekend of 2015 at the box office should be dominated by Christmas time holdovers. Only one new release is out – horror sequel The Woman in Black 2: Angel of Death. You can read my detailed prediction post on it here:
In order for Black to even have a shot at the top spot, it would need to outdo the $20 million that its predecessor debuted at and that seems highly unlikely. I believe it’ll even fail to crack the top five.
The race for #1 could come down to The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies, Unbroken, and Into the Woods. I believe Hobbit should manage a three-peat with the other two battling it out for second. Family fare Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb and Annie should round out the top five.
And with that, my top 6 predictions for the weekend:
1. The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
Predicted Gross: $23.3 million (representing a drop of 42%)
2. Unbroken
Predicted Gross: $19.2 million (representing a drop of 37%)
3. Into the Woods
Predicted Gross: $18.5 million (representing a drop of 40%)
4. Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb
Predicted Gross: $14.3 million (representing a drop of 30%)
5. Annie
Predicted Gross: $11.2 million (representing a drop of 33%)
6. The Woman in Black 2: Angel of Death
Predicted Gross: $11.1 million
Box Office Results (December 25-28)
The Christmas weekend box office saw a host of new films premiering and expanding, but The Hobbit three-quel stayed on top with $40.9 million. This was right on track with my $42.4M estimate. Peter Jackson’s fantasy epic has earned $168M in two weeks.
The #2 and #3 spots belonged to newcomers that greatly exceeded my expectations. Disney’s Into the Woods scored with $31 million over Friday to Sunday and $46.1 million since its Christmas bow, well ahead of my respective $21.8M and $30.1M projections. Rob Marshall’s generally well-received musical clearly hit its target audience and then some.
Despite middling reviews, Angelina Jolie’s Unbroken also opened very high with $30.6 million from Friday to Sunday and $46 million since Christmas. This blew away my $20.5M and $28.6M predictions.
Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb held up well in weekend #2 with $20.2 million, just above my $18.7M projection. While it will certainly be the lowest earner of the franchise, its total stands at a fair $54 million and it should manage to pass the century mark (though not by much).
Annie was fourth with $16.5 million, right in line with my $16.9M estimate. It also benefited in its sophomore frame from family audiences on break and its total stands at $45 million, despite its woeful critical reaction.
As for other newbies, Mark Wahlberg’s The Gambler had a so-so debut with $9.1 million over the traditional weekend. My estimate? $9.1 million (gold star!). Its $14.1M Christmas to Sunday take did barely exceed my $12.2M prediction.
Oscar hopeful The Imitation Game opened wide with fabulous results with $7.9 million (Fri to Sun) and $10.9 million since December 25. This out shined my respective estimates of $5.3M and $7.2M.
The news was not so good for Tim Burton’s Big Eyes. Despite mostly positive notices, adult audiences simply had so much to choose from that this was ignored. It made $3 million from Friday to Sunday and $4.4 million since Christmas, lower than my projections of $5.5M and $7.4M.
Finally, The Interview. Opening on a scant 331 screens due to large chain boycotts, the Seth Rogen/James Franco international headline of a raunchy comedy managed a pretty commendable $1.8 million (Fri to Sun) and $2.8 million since the holiday. It didn’t reach my predictions of $3.1M and $4.4M, but this still isn’t bad considering it reportedly made $15 million through its online distribution offerings.
And that’ll do it for now, folks! Happy New Year!!!
Nearly three years ago, British horror pic The Woman in Black starring Harry Potter himself, Daniel Radcliffe, performed admirably at the U.S. box office with a $54 million gross (and a much better than expected $20M opening weekend).
And now the sequel arriving January 2 that marks the first major wide release of 2015. Radcliffe does not make a return trip and the cast features no well-known actors. Angel of Death will need to capitalize on audience affection for the original. The problem: there likely isn’t much of it. While the original made more than anticipated, it’s hardly considered a genre classic (though it is worth a look). This could follow a similar pattern to the first picture of 2014: Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones, which debuted to a less than estimated $18 million. Black, unfortunately, doesn’t even have the following of that franchise.
I believe this should open over double digits, but not by a whole lot.
The Woman in Black 2: Angel of Death opening weekend prediction: $11.1 million
On this Christmas morning, it turns out my present to you on the blog is something I didn’t get to think I’d write this week: a box office prediction for The Interview.
At this point, everyone movie blogger and critic has written about the debacle that involved hacking and North Korea and Sony Pictures and the controversial decision to not release the Seth Rogen/James Franco comedy in theaters. I wrote my own post when it looked like the picture may not see the light of day and if you missed it, you can find it here:
And now – Sony has reversed course, to an extent. The Interview, in which Rogen and Franco play entertainment journalists sent on a mission to take out North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, will premiere today in 331 independently owned theaters across the nation. The big movie chains are still not screening it. It is also debuting on numerous digital formats, including YouTube, Google Play, and Xbox which may divert some curious eyes from the theaters and to their laptops.
So what does that mean as far as its box office prospects? Well, that’s a tricky proposition but I’ll try my best. First, 331 screens isn’t many considering the average wannabe blockbuster comes to at least 2000 and often 3000 plus venues. In other words, think low. On the other hand, its per screen average should outdo the other holiday newbies that are rolling out.
With all the hype surrounding the movie (even with its less than stellar reviews – 5o% on Rotten Tomatoes), it should manage to bring out viewers who may not have even intended on watching it right away in the first place. Whether they do so at a theater they might not be used to going to or at home is a mystery that won’t be resolved until the numbers are released early next week. I’ll predict its limited release yields an average of over $10,000 per screen for an impressive haul.
The Interview opening weekend prediction: $3.1 million (Friday to Sunday), $4.4 million (Thursday to Sunday)
After several weeks in limited release where it’s done quite well, The Imitation Game rolls out nationally tomorrow on Christmas Day. Premiering on approximately 747 screens, Game has been the beneficiary of much awards buzz – both for the Picture and its actors Benedict Cumberbatch and Keira Knightley.
The picture tells the story of Alan Turing, known for being the man to break Nazi codes during WWII. Game is thought to be in the running for what actually could win Best Picture, as is Cumberbatch. Reviews have been highly positive and it stands at 88% on Rotten Tomatoes.
It’s rolling out on less than 1000 screens which will certainly effect its performance, but I’ll predict it does quite nicely considering the number of theaters.
The Imitation Game opening weekend prediction: $5.3 million (Friday to Sunday), $7.2 million (Thursday to Sunday)
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