99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actor

And we are off to the races with my first Oscar predictions for the 99th Academy Awards.

We are only two weeks removed from the 98th ceremony so let us begin some ridiculously early speculation! These are my inaugural glimpses at the four acting derbies, Director, and Picture. They will unfold on the blog over the next few days.

It begins with Supporting Actor. When I made my first picks in 2025, my projected quintet yielded just one eventual nominee in Stellan Skasgård for Sentimental Value. Under the 10 other possibilities, I correctly identified Sean Penn for One Battle After Another who would win his third statue. The other three nominees – Benicio del Toro in One Battle, Jacob Elordi for Frankenstein, and Delroy Lindo in Sinners were not named.

An interesting factoid about this particular acting race: 18 of the last 20 hopefuls come from Best Picture nominees. That’s certainly something to keep in mind when making these initial forecasts.

Let’s get some caveats out of the way… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out to be awards contenders. Actors listed here could end up being campaigned in lead actor and vice versa when I get to Best Actor. And there will be movies were not even anticipating that will rise up with performances currently not on the radar.

Last year, I projected Colman Domingo making the cut as Jackson family patriarch Joseph Jackson in Michael. That film ended up getting pushed to this April. This time around, I don’t have him in my five but he’s hanging around in other possibilities.

As for other names to keep an eye on, Steve Buscemi (Wild Horse Nine) and John Goodman (Digger) could be looking at their first noms after long and respected careers. Buscemi may face competition from his costar Sam Rockwell. It is currently unknown what the category placement will be for Rockwell, but I’ll slot him here for now. There’s more than one possibility in Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey with Tom Holland appearing as the most high profile. Guy Pearce (Ink) will vie for his second go-round in this category two years after The Brutalist.

Here’s the first snapshot with Supporting Actress up next!

TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR SUPPORTING ACTOR AT THE 99TH ACADEMY AWARDS

Paul Giamatti, No One Cares

John Goodman, Digger

Tom Holland, The Odyssey

Guy Pearce, Ink

Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine

Other Possibilities:

Daniel Brühl, The Entertainment System is Down

Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine

Colman Domingo, Michael

Ciarán Hinds, Cry to Heaven

Jesse Plemons, Digger

Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann

Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning

Channing Tatum, Josephine

Miles Teller, Paper Tiger

D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai, A Long Winter