Tag: D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai

99th Academy Awards Predictions: April 19th Edition

Barely a month beyond the 98th edition of the Academy Awards, we have arrived at my first ranked predictions for the 99th ceremony. We begin with six major categories – Best Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies.

I gave you my first ranked glimpses for the previous telecast around the same time last year in these same races. How did that impossibly early forecast turn out? I correctly called four of the eventual ten BP nominees with Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, and Sinners. Winner One Battle After Another as well as Bugonia, F1, and Frankenstein were listed in Other Possibilities. So 80% of the BP contenders were identified with The Secret Agent and Train Dreams not being mentioned in April 2025.

In Best Director, three of the five filmmakers were predicted: Ryan Coogler (Sinners), Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme), and Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value). Statue recipient Paul Thomas Anderson from One Battle and Chloé Zhao (Hamnet) were in Other Possibilities.

As for Best Actress, Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) swept the season and was in my predicted quintet. So was Sentimental Value‘s Renate Reinsve while Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You) and Emma Stone (Bugonia) were in Other Possibilities. Only Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue) wasn’t listed. In Best Actor, Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) was in my quintet. Three others – winner Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), and Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon) were Other Possibilities with Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) as the sole thespian not identified.

My projected Supporting Actress five rightly named Teyana Taylor (One Battle) with Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value) as a possibility. Fanning’s costar Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Wumni Mosaku (Sinners), and the victorious Amy Madigan (Weapons) were not found among my possibilities. In Supporting Actor, Stellan Skarsgård from Value was in my five with winner Sean Penn (One Battle) and Delroy Lindo (Sinners) as possibilities. Battle‘s Benicio del Toro and Frankenstein‘s Jacob Elordi were not to be found yet.

Let’s get some caveats out of the way. Some of the performers listed in lead will end up in supporting and vice versa. As an example, I figured Paul Mescal (Hamnet) would go lead for that film last year, but he was slotted in supporting. He ended up not being nominated but likely came close. For instance in this year’s listings, I don’t know if Sam Rockwell will be lead or supporting for Wild Horse Nine but my hunch says the latter at press time. The distributor will eventually clear that up.

We will see pictures push to 2027. When I did my initial projections a year ago for 2025, Michael and The Rivals of Amziah King were thought to be releases for that calendar frame. Both are being put out in ’26. I have Michael still as a potential nominee in some competitions. Not so at this time for Rivals.

And now the most important forewarning. Some movies you find below will turn out to be non-contenders. My inaugural look at the 98th Oscars listed Luca Guadagnino’s After the Hunt at #1 in Best Picture, Director, Actress (Julia Roberts), #4 in Supporting Actress (Ayo Edebiri), and #2 in Supporting Actor (Andrew Garfield). After its Venice festival premiere, the mixed to negative reaction drastically changed its narrative. It ended up with zero nominations. My April 2025 #1’s in the supporting fields – Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good) and Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly) – did not make final cut either.

So take this speculation as what it is – speculative. The picture and Best Picture will become clearer in time. That said, a reminder that 80% of the BP nominees were mentioned a year ago in addition to 100% of the directors and 80% of the lead acting hopefuls could be found in the initial post. On the flip side, nearly all of my acting picks for a nomination are coming from projected BP nominees and the percentage probably won’t be quite that high.

When Sinners came out last year, it was a box office juggernaut with widespread critical acclaim. Yet I wondered whether the spring release could mean it would fall by the wayside months down the line. That’s why I named it in Other Possibilities for Picture, Director, Actor, and Supporting Actor. What happened months down the line? A record-setting 16 nominations with Jordan winning Actor. I won’t make the same mistake with Project Hail Mary. It has been out for weeks and already looks like a strong contender in Picture, Director, Actor, and possibly Supporting Actress. Another note – it’s not often (or maybe ever) you see a performer mentioned four times. That’s the case at the moment with the busy Sandra Hüller who is a legit threat twice in lead Actress and supporting.

You can expect these posts to hit the blog every couple of weeks until it becomes weekly. This should occur when festival season goes into overdrive in last summer/early fall.

BEST PICTURE

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey

2. Project Hail Mary

3. Wild Horse Nine

4. Digger

5. Fjord

6. No One Cares

7. All of a Sudden

8. Fatherland

9. The Social Reckoning

10. Dune: Part Three

Other Possibilities:

11. Narnia: The Magican’s Nephew

12. A Place in Hell

13. A Long Winter

14. The Entertainment System is Down

15. Being Heumann

16. Cry to Heaven

17. Josephine

18. Werwulf

19. The Adventures of Cliff Booth

20. Michael

21. Paper Tiger

22. Saturn Return

23. Sense and Sensibility

24. Jack of Spades

25. Behemoth!

BEST DIRECTOR

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey

2. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger

3. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary

4. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine

5. Cristian Mingiu, Fjord

Other Possibilities:

6. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden

7. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland

8. Jesse Eisenberg, No One Cares

9. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three

10. Greta Gerwig, Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew

11. Ruben Östlund, The Entertainment System is Down

12. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven

13. Aaron Sorkin, The Social Reckoning

14. Robert Eggers, Werwulf

15. David Fincher, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

BEST ACTRESS

Predicted Nominees:

1. Renate Reinsve, Fjord

2. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning

3. Julianne Moore, No One Cares

4. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland

5. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell

Other Possibilities:

6. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden

7. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann

8. Mason Reeves, Josephine

9. Sophie Okenedo, Clarissa

10. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie

11. Sandra Hüller, Rose

12. Lily Gladstone, The Memory Police

13. Rachel Brosnahan, Saturn Return

14. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility

15. Amy Adams, At the Sea

BEST ACTOR

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tom Cruise, Digger

2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary

3. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine

4. Sebastian Stan, Fjord

5. Hanns Zischler, Fatherland

Other Possibilities:

6. Matt Damon, The Odyssey

7. Robert Aramayo, I Swear

8. Dominic Sessa, Tony

9. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven

10. Jafaar Jackson, Michael

11. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three

12. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth!

13. Brad Pitt, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

14. Charles Melton, Saturn Return

15. John Turturro, The Only Pickpocket Living in New York

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Predicted Nominees:

1. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine

2. Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine

3. Halle Bailey, No One Cares

4. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey

5. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden

Other Possibilities:

6. Sandra Hüller, Digger

7. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell

8.. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary

9. Caitriona Balfe, A Long Winter

10. Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger

11. Wunmi Mosaku, The Social Reckoning

12. Kirsten Dunst, The Entertainment System is Down

13. Gemma Chan, Josephine

14. Frances McDormand, Jack of Spades

15. Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Giamatti, No One Cares

2. John Goodman, Digger

3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine

4. Colman Domingo, Michael

5. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning

Other Possibilities:

6. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine

7. Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell

8. Tom Holland, The Odyssey

9. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann

10. D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai, A Long Winter

11. Jesse Plemons, Digger

12. Channing Tatum, Josephine

13. David Oyelowo, Clarissa

14. Daniel Brühl, The Entertainment System is Down

15. Riz Ahmed, Digger

99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actor

And we are off to the races with my first Oscar predictions for the 99th Academy Awards.

We are only two weeks removed from the 98th ceremony so let us begin some ridiculously early speculation! These are my inaugural glimpses at the four acting derbies, Director, and Picture. They will unfold on the blog over the next few days.

It begins with Supporting Actor. When I made my first picks in 2025, my projected quintet yielded just one eventual nominee in Stellan Skasgård for Sentimental Value. Under the 10 other possibilities, I correctly identified Sean Penn for One Battle After Another who would win his third statue. The other three nominees – Benicio del Toro in One Battle, Jacob Elordi for Frankenstein, and Delroy Lindo in Sinners were not named.

An interesting factoid about this particular acting race: 18 of the last 20 hopefuls come from Best Picture nominees. That’s certainly something to keep in mind when making these initial forecasts.

Let’s get some caveats out of the way… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out to be awards contenders. Actors listed here could end up being campaigned in lead actor and vice versa when I get to Best Actor. And there will be movies were not even anticipating that will rise up with performances currently not on the radar.

Last year, I projected Colman Domingo making the cut as Jackson family patriarch Joseph Jackson in Michael. That film ended up getting pushed to this April. This time around, I don’t have him in my five but he’s hanging around in other possibilities.

As for other names to keep an eye on, Steve Buscemi (Wild Horse Nine) and John Goodman (Digger) could be looking at their first noms after long and respected careers. Buscemi may face competition from his costar Sam Rockwell. It is currently unknown what the category placement will be for Rockwell, but I’ll slot him here for now. There’s more than one possibility in Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey with Tom Holland appearing as the most high profile. Guy Pearce (Ink) will vie for his second go-round in this category two years after The Brutalist.

Here’s the first snapshot with Supporting Actress up next!

TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR SUPPORTING ACTOR AT THE 99TH ACADEMY AWARDS

Paul Giamatti, No One Cares

John Goodman, Digger

Tom Holland, The Odyssey

Guy Pearce, Ink

Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine

Other Possibilities:

Daniel Brühl, The Entertainment System is Down

Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine

Colman Domingo, Michael

Ciarán Hinds, Cry to Heaven

Jesse Plemons, Digger

Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann

Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning

Channing Tatum, Josephine

Miles Teller, Paper Tiger

D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai, A Long Winter

Warfare Box Office Prediction

Taken from his real life experiences fighting in the Iraq War, Ray Mendoza co-directs Warfare which releases April 11th. The other filmmaker behind the camera is Alex Garland in his follow-up to Civil War. D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai plays Mendoza with a supporting cast including Will Poulter, Cosmo Jarvis, Joseph Quinn, Kit Connor, Finn Bennett, Taylor John Smith, Michael Gandolfini, and Charles Melton.

The A24 release (which also distributed Civil War) is one of a handful of pics next weekend looking to gross around $10 million, give or take. Reviews for Warfare are strong with 93% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 78 Metacritic. Yet I don’t see this approaching the $25 million that Civil over-indexed at during the same April frame last year.

A higher than expected veteran/action fans turnout could push this up beyond my forecast, but I’ll say this falls under $10 million.

Warfare opening weekend prediction: $8.5 million

For my The Amateur prediction, click here:

The Amateur Box Office Prediction

For my Drop prediction, click here:

Drop Box Office Prediction

For my The King of Kings prediction, click here:

The King of Kings Box Office Prediction

For my The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 3 prediction, click here:

The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 3 Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: Warfare

A year after Civil War, Alex Garland is back with his follow-up Warfare on April 11th. This time he’s co-directing with Ray Mendoza, an Iraq War Navy SEAL recounting his own experiences in that theater. The cast includes D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai (as Mendoza), Will Poulter, Cosmo Jarvis, Kit Connor, Finn Bennett, Taylor John Smith, Michael Gandolfini, Joseph Quinn, and Charles Melton.

At just over 90 minutes, Warfare is particularly being lauded for its technical achievements. The Rotten Tomatoes score is at 94% with a 78 Metacritic. I don’t see this as a Best Picture play. Some thought Civil War could sneak in last year though its momentum never truly materialized.

Where this could contend is Best Sound as reviews continuously praise that aspect. Warfare could join other 21st century genre titles like The Hurt Locker, Zero Dark Thirty, Lone Survivor, American Sniper, 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi, Hacksaw Ridge, Dunkirk, 1917, and All Quiet on the Western Front in the auditory field. It’s early in the game, but don’t be surprised if it does (though it’s worth noting Civil War didn’t make that cut). My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…